[2013] ESPN somewhat new bracketology- no bracket-but Scurve

[stever20]

Most all the computers have Big 12 ahead of us. Sagarin I know has 3 Big 12 teams in the top 9. and Ken Pom has 3 in the top 19. A lot of the ratings systems are tlted towards having more teams up top. Massey has them as 4 top 20 teams. The composite computer ratings from Monday had them as #2, us as #4(ACC wedged in between, that'll change next week I think-putting them 3 and us 4).

Even KenPom, which is our best metric, barely has us ahead of them. like .7873-.7854.

I think part of the reason why they are so much higher than you think they should be...
Big 12- 56-16 .7778 winning pct .6075 RPI
Big East 53-22 .7067 winning pct .5722 RPI

They just have won more games.

[redmen9194]

The good thing is that they select entries for the NCAA Tourny in March - once the entire season is done. To even guess where teams might be now is not worthwhile. Three years ago St. John's lost to St. Bonaventure and Fordham back to back and also had a loss to St. Mary's before Big East play started. They were a questionable NIT bid at that point and they made the tourney. That's because much can change, and usually does, after just the first month of play. Lunardi has us at four right now. We'll get five.

[stever20]

The good thing is that they select entries for the NCAA Tourny in March - once the entire season is done. To even guess where teams might be now is not worthwhile. Three years ago St. John's lost to St. Bonaventure and Fordham back to back and also had a loss to St. Mary's before Big East play started. They were a questionable NIT bid at that point and they made the tourney. That's because much can change, and usually does, after just the first month of play. Lunardi has us at four right now. We'll get five.

The thign is, if we go into conference play with everyone but nova having 3-4 losses, Almost any team that finishes with 8-9 losses, which is what a 5th place team will have- would have 11-13 losses. Then 1 more in the BET. 13-14 loss teams just don't make the tourney any more unless they have a lot of big wins, like Nova last year. I just don't see any of our teams having those kind of wins. They just don't have the chances. St Johns 3 years ago beat 4 top 15 teams in conference play. They had 9 top 50 wins- in 17 tries. No one is going to be remotely close to those numbers this year. That's the difference this year. You are thinking in Big East circa last 5-6 years. It is different. The only question is just how different it will be.

[billyjack]

Letter from an ACC pessimist:
Really the only thing that has gone well for us are Syracuse and Pitt, two teams we stole from the Big East (because the ACC was so fvckin bad), and the lucky break where the pre-season polls ranked a bunch of us in the Top-25 or gave us honorable mention votes because ESPN has their tongues up our... enough said...!

Duke had 2 big tests and lost to Kansas and Arizona, and beat Vermont by 1.
UNC is erratic and unreliable by losing to UAB and Belmont, even with wins vs Louisville and Michigan State.
Virginia was handed an undeserved top-25 ranking, has beaten no one, lost to VCU at home, and scored 38 in losing to Wisconsin at home.
Boston College was gifted honorable mention votes, then lost to Providence, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Toledo, and last night to Purdue by 20, though they did beat Sacred Heart in OT at home; even still, BC will probably finish 6th in-conference.

Clemson had one test and lost in-state to UMass.
Georgia Tech lost to St John’s in their only test vs the Big East, plus got crushed by Dayton and Ole Miss.
Maryland won the Paradise Jam vs a depleted PC team by 4, but lost to Oregon State at home and they’re leaving next year anyway.
Florida State has 3 losses against the only good teams on their schedule.
Miami of Florida lost to St Francis of New York, Central Florida, GW (we don’t know how bad they will be) and by 11 to an awful Nebraska team.

Notre Dame got waxed by Indiana State at home by 13 and in their only test also lost to Iowa.
Wake Forest hasn’t beaten anyone they weren’t expected to, unless Wake beating The Citadel was unexpected.
NC State lost to NC-Central at home- enough said!
Virginia Tech probably quite frankly has played the closest to their ability (losing to Michigan State and Seton Hall, and losing to SC-Upstate) by beating Furman.

[tsmithohio1234]

Omaha1

You need to do some research on UD and their record over the past 10 years and separately their record over the past 50 years and then get back to us.
Many other factors that rank UD over CU that have been discussed ad nausem on this board

[stever20]

I'd take UNC's season over almost any team in the Big East. You know what their RPI is right now? 12. #8 in Ken Pom. They were #11 on Saturday, but after losing to UAB and beating Michigan St, they're now #8.

[billyjack]

I'd take UNC's season over almost any team in the Big East. You know what their RPI is right now? 12. #8 in Ken Pom. They were #11 on Saturday, but after losing to UAB and beating Michigan St, they're now #8.

Out of the ACC---> UNC, Duke, Syracuse and Pitt will get bids.
After that, there are too many moving parts. The ACC nightmare scenario would be if one or more of Boston College, Virginia Tech, Miami of Florida, or Georgia Tech finish 5th, 6th or 7th or 8th. And there is an excellent chance of BC doing well in-conference (like last year, where I would imagine BC's many ACC wins really really hurt the conference (4 bids)). They need Maryland to finish 5th and maybe Notre Dame, Clemson and Florida State or Virginia (I guess?) at 6th, 7th and 8th. With the number of atrocious losses by their lower teams, they could be screwed if the wrong teams finish mid-pack.

With us, only if Seton Hall or DePaul finish higher than 7th will we be hurt. I mean, only if SHU or DePaul finish higher than 7th will Big East conference play hurt us.

[Bluejay]

Omaha1

You need to do some research on UD and their record over the past 10 years and separately their record over the past 50 years and then get back to us.
Many other factors that rank UD over CU that have been discussed ad nausem on this board

With all due respect, no he doesn't. Creighton is already in. Dayton wants in. Going on the offensive by attacking present members (or the religious orders that administer some of the present members) probably isn't the best method for gaining a lot of allies in your quest.

Frankly, I don't see a lot of value in expanding right now. Doing so would only allow critics to further malign the BE as a glamorous A10 (especially if two A10 teams were added). Just like many refer to the AAC as "Conference USA 2.0", expect the BE to become "Atlantic 10 2.0" if two new A10 teams are added soon.

[stever20]

I'd take UNC's season over almost any team in the Big East. You know what their RPI is right now? 12. #8 in Ken Pom. They were #11 on Saturday, but after losing to UAB and beating Michigan St, they're now #8.

Out of the ACC---> UNC, Duke, Syracuse and Pitt will get bids.
After that, there are too many moving parts. The ACC nightmare scenario would be if one or more of Boston College, Virginia Tech, Miami of Florida, or Georgia Tech finish 5th, 6th or 7th or 8th. And there is an excellent chance of BC doing well in-conference (like last year, where I would imagine BC's many ACC wins really really hurt the conference (4 bids)). They need Maryland to finish 5th and maybe Notre Dame, Clemson and Florida State or Virginia (I guess?) at 6th, 7th and 8th. With the number of atrocious losses by their lower teams, they could be screwed if the wrong teams finish mid-pack.

With us, only if Seton Hall or DePaul finish higher than 7th will we be hurt.

ACC had 6 in his s-curve(including last team in). He's got UVa and FSU both in. 2 of the 1st 4 out in Maryland and Notre Dame.

With us, almost any team if they finish lower than 4th could be out. Oh, and quite frankly, if DePaul won tomorrow, they would be in just as good/bad of shape as any of the other team. They could be 10-3 heading into conference play. We'll see(not exactly holding my breath there!)

[billyjack]

I know this is ESPN's opinion, not yours... but Virginia has beaten absolutely nobody OOC.

Virginia wins:
James Madison.
Davidson.
Navy.
Liberty.
Hampton.
SMU.
Missouri State.

Virginia losses:
VCU.
Wisconsin.

Virginia upcoming games:
Green Bay.
Northern Iowa.
Norfolk State.
Tennessee.

So, Virginia has played 2 teams with a pulse and lost both, and both were at home...!
Their best win is vs Southern Methodist.
They have no great teams left OOC.
They have to beat Green Bay.
They have to beat Norfolk State.
They have to beat Tennessee, who split with Xavier.
They have to beat Northern Iowa, who will probably beat them cuz Northern Iowa is better than them.

And it gets worse for them-- they play only 1 game vs the only 4 good teams in conference - Duke, UNC, Syracuse and Pitt. They'll go 0-4 against them, unless Coach K tanks their game to help with bids (following instructions from ESPN).