The sky isn't falling

[hoyahooligan]

I noticed that too. I think it particularly hurt Creighton. SDSU and GW did a lot of hand checking that didn't get called like it had been earlier in the year. They also seemed to be more lenient calling charges than previously. I wonder too if it was just a blip or if the rules will end up being enforced just like previous years.

Glad it wasn't just me. On the other hand, I think it helped Villanova and will help most of the BE teams overall if they go back to the old ways. It'll hurt crieghton, but benefit everyone else.

[stever20]

I noticed that too. I think it particularly hurt Creighton. SDSU and GW did a lot of hand checking that didn't get called like it had been earlier in the year. They also seemed to be more lenient calling charges than previously. I wonder too if it was just a blip or if the rules will end up being enforced just like previous years.

Glad it wasn't just me. On the other hand, I think it helped Villanova and will help most of the BE teams overall if they go back to the old ways. It'll hurt crieghton, but benefit everyone else.

it'll definitely be interesting to watch in the next few weeks.

The thing though that could hurt us- if it's called like that during the season, but then the NCAA tourney is back to like we saw early season.

[stever20]

Saw a thing on real time rpi that is very interesting. with their projections-
#25 Villanova 22-9
#27 Georgetown 20-9
#51 Creighton 21-9
#72 Butler 17-12
#75 Xavier 19-12
#78 Marquette 18-13
#79 Providence 19-12
#89 St Johns 19-12
#151 Seton Hall 15-16
#200 DePaul 9-22

This is the type of scenario that would be devastating for the BE. Typically schools in that 72-80 range don't get in the tourney. Just a bunch of 17-19 win teams. Also Seton Hall and DePaul's rpi concerning. We would need like a Butler or Xavier to make a run in the BET to have a shot.

[Bill Marsh]

Saw a thing on real time rpi that is very interesting. with their projections-
#25 Villanova 22-9
#27 Georgetown 20-9
#51 Creighton 21-9
#72 Butler 17-12
#75 Xavier 19-12
#78 Marquette 18-13
#79 Providence 19-12
#89 St Johns 19-12
#151 Seton Hall 15-16
#200 DePaul 9-22

This is the type of scenario that would be devastating for the BE. Typically schools in that 72-80 range don't get in the tourney. Just a bunch of 17-19 win teams. Also Seton Hall and DePaul's rpi concerning. We would need like a Butler or Xavier to make a run in the BET to have a shot.

RPI is meaningless at this point in the season. It's a flawed system to begin with, but at this point in the season, they simply don't have enough data to do what they're trying to do. This list is completely out of whack with what the power rating systems are telling us, which are far more reliable.

[stever20]

Saw a thing on real time rpi that is very interesting. with their projections-
#25 Villanova 22-9
#27 Georgetown 20-9
#51 Creighton 21-9
#72 Butler 17-12
#75 Xavier 19-12
#78 Marquette 18-13
#79 Providence 19-12
#89 St Johns 19-12
#151 Seton Hall 15-16
#200 DePaul 9-22

This is the type of scenario that would be devastating for the BE. Typically schools in that 72-80 range don't get in the tourney. Just a bunch of 17-19 win teams. Also Seton Hall and DePaul's rpi concerning. We would need like a Butler or Xavier to make a run in the BET to have a shot.

RPI is meaningless at this point in the season. It's a flawed system to begin with, but at this point in the season, they simply don't have enough data to do what they're trying to do. This list is completely out of whack with what the power rating systems are telling us, which are far more reliable.

No, it's their projected RPI's- with them projecting the rest of the season- with teams having the records listed(and everyone else same thing). If we wind up with all those records, their projected RPI's make a lot of sense. Only 4 top 50 games for teams 3-8- balanced out by 4 games 151-200.

It's why we need Seton Hall and DePaul to not lose any more. If DePaul winds up 9-22 they will be right around 200. Same with Seton Hall, with their awful OOC schedule, if they are 15-16, they will be around 151.

Where the power rating systems fail is to take account of future games...
Ken Pom's projections
Nova 24-7(rpi had 22-9)
Georgetown 20-10(rpi had 20-9- not sure why the extra loss)
Creighton 21-9(same as rpi)
Marquette 18-13(same as rpi)
Butler 18-12(rpi has 17-12- guessing they didn't have the game with Georgetown on there)
Providence 19-12(same as rpi)
Xavier 17-14(RPI has as 19-12)
St John's 18-13(RPI has as 19-12)
Seton Hall 14-17(RPI has as 15-16)
DePaul 14-17(RPI has as 9-22)

So, outside of DePaul, no glaring differences at all. DePaul with 5 more wins would help- but then that takes 2 wins from Xavier, 1 win from St John's, and 1 win from Seton Hall. kind of a zero sum game there. If Ken Pom's records are right- the RPI's will still be in that 60-80 range that is poison for getting more bids in the tournament. A lot of 17-19 win teams.

[stever20]

also, I would say, if the season plays out like Ken Pom is projected, the ken pom ratings for Marquette, Butler, and Providence won't be 48,54,60. They'll be lower(well, except for maybe Providence).

[Bill Marsh]

Saw a thing on real time rpi that is very interesting. with their projections-
#25 Villanova 22-9
#27 Georgetown 20-9
#51 Creighton 21-9
#72 Butler 17-12
#75 Xavier 19-12
#78 Marquette 18-13
#79 Providence 19-12
#89 St Johns 19-12
#151 Seton Hall 15-16
#200 DePaul 9-22

This is the type of scenario that would be devastating for the BE. Typically schools in that 72-80 range don't get in the tourney. Just a bunch of 17-19 win teams. Also Seton Hall and DePaul's rpi concerning. We would need like a Butler or Xavier to make a run in the BET to have a shot.

Even more useless IMHO.
RPI is meaningless at this point in the season. It's a flawed system to begin with, but at this point in the season, they simply don't have enough data to do what they're trying to do. This list is completely out of whack with what the power rating systems are telling us, which are far more reliable.

No, it's their projected RPI's- with them projecting the rest of the season- with teams having the records listed(and everyone else same thing). If we wind up with all those records, their projected RPI's make a lot of sense. Only 4 top 50 games for teams 3-8- balanced out by 4 games 151-200.

It's why we need Seton Hall and DePaul to not lose any more. If DePaul winds up 9-22 they will be right around 200. Same with Seton Hall, with their awful OOC schedule, if they are 15-16, they will be around 151.

Where the power rating systems fail is to take account of future games...
Ken Pom's projections
Nova 24-7(rpi had 22-9)
Georgetown 20-10(rpi had 20-9- not sure why the extra loss)
Creighton 21-9(same as rpi)
Marquette 18-13(same as rpi)
Butler 18-12(rpi has 17-12- guessing they didn't have the game with Georgetown on there)
Providence 19-12(same as rpi)
Xavier 17-14(RPI has as 19-12)
St John's 18-13(RPI has as 19-12)
Seton Hall 14-17(RPI has as 15-16)
DePaul 14-17(RPI has as 9-22)

So, outside of DePaul, no glaring differences at all. DePaul with 5 more wins would help- but then that takes 2 wins from Xavier, 1 win from St John's, and 1 win from Seton Hall. kind of a zero sum game there. If Ken Pom's records are right- the RPI's will still be in that 60-80 range that is poison for getting more bids in the tournament. A lot of 17-19 win teams.

Even more useless IMHO.

[stever20]

How is it useless when 2 pretty respected places both have roughly the same records, and those records are shown to equate to

The thing you aren't seeing with the power ratings, not everyone in the top 50 plays the same schedules. Yes, we may have 8 teams right now in the Ken Pom top 67. But especially with the RPI when those teams start playing and beating up on each other, the RPi gets impacted. Even with the current ken pom ratings- we have 4 teams in the 59-67 range. Not all that different than what the projected RPI's are. A lot of times, the RPi will be lower for teams like that. Case in point Providence last year. Finished 19-15- so right in that 17-19 pack... Ken Pom had them as #70. Their final RPI was #86. That's a very real difference.

And, they aren't the only one... RPIForecast.com
Villanova 25-6 10.9 avg rating 13-5 conference (ken pom 24-7)
Georgetown 20-10 31.2 12-6 conference (20-10- same)
Creighton 21-9 46.4 12-6 (21-9-same)
Butler 17-12 71.2 9-9(17-12 same)
Providence 19-12 73.5 9-9(19-12 same)
Marquette 18-13 75.2 9-9(18-13 same)
Xavier 17-14 82.3 9-9 (17-14 same)
St John's 16-15 120.2 7-11(18-13 -2)
DePaul 13-18 148.4 6-12(14-17 -1)
Seton Hall 13-18 174.6 5-13(14-17 -1)
(I believe I saw that he uses the Sagarin Predictor to pick the winners of each game)...

what do you see? I see a lot of 17-19 win teams. I also see a lot of the same records in all these projections. I mean, if one RPI projector has 72 and another has 71.2, and they have the same exact record, doesn't that say something? They are projecting the entire year and what the RPI's would look like if it goes as expected. Now, it won't go as expected, but like for Butler, if they go 17-12, they aren't going to just jump big time in the RPI. Doesn't work that way.

You can argue against the RPI, but it's far more a predictor of making the tourney than just about anything out there. I think last year 1 team in the RPI top 50 missed the tournament. 5 teams in the Ken Pom top 50 missed the tourney last year.

[Bulldog_Muskie]

I don't think people are taking issue with the method so much as they are with the sample size.

That being said its been a pretty average year so far. Four may be our limit this go around

[stever20]

well, quite frankly, the OOC schedule is 60% over. We have 126 OOC games scheduled, and 75 done. So, it's actually a fairly decent sample size.
Butler- Purdue, @ Evansville
Creighton- Nebraska, Cal
DePaul- Ariz St, @ Ill St, @ NW
Georgetown- @ Kansas, Mich St
Marquette- @ Wisconsin, vs New Mexico
Providence- @ RI, @ UMass
St John's- Syracuse
Villanova- @ Syracuse
Xavier- Cincy, @ Alabama, Wake Forest
that's of the 51 games left, 18 that are really meaningful.

After this weekend, we're down to like less than 15 big OOC games. The rest is a lot of filler that can do nothing but hurt us.