Conference Realignment: What Next?

[GoldenWarrior11]

If we end up inviting Dayton, I’ll eat my shoe.

Big East would be stupid not to in my opinion. I think having Dayton in w/ Xavier would be a feature not a bug.

Here in Chicago, remaining Loyola/Dayton individual tickets are going for $150 minimum (majority are going for over $200). Absolutely incredible. Meanwhile, the cheapest tickets for DePaul/Butler this Saturday are for $23.

A tale of different programs.

[ArmyVet]

If we end up inviting Dayton, I’ll eat my shoe.

Big East would be stupid not to in my opinion. I think having Dayton in w/ Xavier would be a feature not a bug.

I don't think Xavier is the issue. It's a TV contract issue.

As it stands, the conference is guaranteed a round robin where TV gets to broadcast every home-home series. Add another team and the round robin is gone. Now, instead of getting Creighton and UConn twice a year, they get it once. Same for Marquette against Nova, for example. Is Fox willing to pay more to show Dayton games? I really don't think so. Only Gonzaga would move the needle, but the challenges of adding a team in Spokane are well documented.

As the league is currently constituted, 11 teams is perfect.

[stever20]

If we end up inviting Dayton, I’ll eat my shoe.

Big East would be stupid not to in my opinion. I think having Dayton in w/ Xavier would be a feature not a bug.

I don't think Xavier is the issue. It's a TV contract issue.

As it stands, the conference is guaranteed a round robin where TV gets to broadcast every home-home series. Add another team and the round robin is gone. Now, instead of getting Creighton and UConn twice a year, they get it once. Same for Marquette against Nova, for example. Is Fox willing to pay more to show Dayton games? I really don't think so. Only Gonzaga would move the needle, but the challenges of adding a team in Spokane are well documented.

As the league is currently constituted, 11 teams is perfect.

but on the other hand instead of having a Marquette/DePaul game which isn't good at all, they'd get Marquette/Dayton which would be a top 25 game. And they would absolutely game the schedule where top teams would avoid the dogs of the conference 2x.

[GoldenWarrior11]

Dayton averages over 13,000 fans per home game, even in non-tournament seasons. They have averaged over 20 wins per season over the past decade, including a heart-breaking 29-2 season taken away from them where they could have made a deep NCAAT run. They have invested in their facilities and are a peer (Private/Catholic/Basketball-first) institution. They are also top-30 in the NCAA for men's and women's basketball revenues (behind Xavier, Villanova, Marquette and UConn). On top of all of that, their fan base is passionate and travels very, very well (as previously stated, the market for the Loyola/Dayton game in Chicago this week is nuts).

Having said all of that, their proximity to Xavier is clearly an issue (otherwise, they would have been added in 2013 or in the years following). I do not believe the round robin is bullet proof; the conference should want to have the best conference matchups as possible. Whether you have 12 teams, 14 teams or more, you can strategically ensure that your top teams have home/home series annually (and block your projected top-teams from playing the projected bottom-teams twice). Inevitably, the top teams will play again come conference tournament time (again, you want the best matchups as possible for attendance and TV).

I don't know how much, if any, Dayton would improve the TV contract for the Big East. At worst, they'd elevate the attendance and bring more content (both regular season and BET); at best, you could have another program competing for NCAAT appearance come March, especially with an increased league payout. Basketball-wise, I'd be much more confident in the competitiveness of a UD than a SLU.

[stever20]

Dayton averages over 13,000 fans per home game, even in non-tournament seasons. They have averaged over 20 wins per season over the past decade, including a heart-breaking 29-2 season taken away from them where they could have made a deep NCAAT run. They have invested in their facilities and are a peer (Private/Catholic/Basketball-first) institution. They are also top-30 in the NCAA for men's and women's basketball revenues (behind Xavier, Villanova, Marquette and UConn). On top of all of that, their fan base is passionate and travels very, very well (as previously stated, the market for the Loyola/Dayton game in Chicago this week is nuts).

Having said all of that, their proximity to Xavier is clearly an issue (otherwise, they would have been added in 2013 or in the years following). I do not believe the round robin is bullet proof; the conference should want to have the best conference matchups as possible. Whether you have 12 teams, 14 teams or more, you can strategically ensure that your top teams have home/home series annually (and block your projected top-teams from playing the projected bottom-teams twice). Inevitably, the top teams will play again come conference tournament time (again, you want the best matchups as possible for attendance and TV).

I don't know how much, if any, Dayton would improve the TV contract for the Big East. At worst, they'd elevate the attendance and bring more content (both regular season and BET); at best, you could have another program competing for NCAAT appearance come March, especially with an increased league payout. Basketball-wise, I'd be much more confident in the competitiveness of a UD than a SLU.

Right. If the league were to expand right now- once again, SLU comes at this in a period of weakness.

[kayako]

Dayton's attendance is meaningless to the Big East. Xavier didn't block Dayton in 2012-13, and Xavier won't be blocking Dayton in the future if it looks like they're ready. I think the message (from the presidents) is pretty clear... that Dayton needs to sustain success to be considered. If you're keeping scores, Dayton hasn't even separated itself from VCU.

[schmoove86]

Dayton's attendance is meaningless to the Big East. Xavier didn't block Dayton in 2012-13, and Xavier won't be blocking Dayton in the future if it looks like they're ready. I think the message (from the presidents) is pretty clear... that Dayton needs to sustain success to be considered. If you're keeping scores, Dayton hasn't even separated itself from VCU.

Dayton would, first, have to catch up with VCU before separating itself from them.

[billyjack]

PC let UConn back in from 50 miles away.

[Xudash]

PC let UConn back in from 50 miles away.

I imagine this may come as a shock to a few people around here, but if Dayton had the same pedigree as UCONN, I would be in favor of letting them back in. Dayton still can't get a weak A10 under control.

It reads like you are suggesting that the Big East approached Providence College about the idea of allowing, or clearing the way for UCONN to come back to the Big East. That sounds like a reasonable courtesy to extend to an existing member of a conference.

Beyond all of that, ArmyVet identified the key driver in all of this: the looming television contract. Absent other possible meaningful considerations (e.g. having enough content, maybe), I would think the next television contract will set the "valuation bar" for any prospective addition to the Big East. I just can't see Fox being willing to pay something hopefully like $8+ million annually for a program pulled up from the mid-major ranks.

As has been mentioned repeatedly here, the Big East is in a very strong position, even with all of the NIL and portal commotion, and with all the realignment activity to-date. We probably should sit tight if we don't have to add for some unforeseen reason, assuming the new media agreement works out to our advantage. Then perhaps some interesting options could come our way, making expansion make sense.

[kayako]

As has been mentioned repeatedly here, the Big East is in a very strong position, even with all of the NIL and portal commotion, and with all the realignment activity to-date. We probably should sit tight if we don't have to add for some unforeseen reason, assuming the new media agreement works out to our advantage. Then perhaps some interesting options could come our way, making expansion make sense.

I wonder if the BE is actually in a strong negotiating position with Fox. In a given week, up to 40% of our games involve DePaul or Georgetown, and there's been way too many blowout uninteresting games this season. 12 is so much better than 11, it wouldn't surprise me if just a decently drawing program (TV not attendance) makes it worth expanding.