Tourney Watch 2/28/22

[kayako]

Looking at 2/28 and 3/1 discrepancies, I'm guessing the distance between 30s to the cutoff line must be miniscule, seeing how much SDSU jumped.

[kayako]

A lot of games to keep track of for Wednesday and results I'm hoping for:

Auburn @Miss st - Miss State

LSU @Arkansas - LSU

UCONN @Creighton - no preference

TAMU @Alabama - TAMU

Okst @Iowa St - Okst

Marquette @DePaul - Marquette

Georgetown @Seton Hall - Hall

Wyoming @UNLV - UNLV

Xavier @St John's - Xavier

Notre Dame @FSU - FSU

NC State @Wake Forest - NC State

Miami @Boston College - BC

George Mason @Davidson - Davidson is my mid-major team this year

Rutgers @Indiana - Rutgers

I'd be happy with 5 of 13

[stever20]

The UConn/Creighton game from a league perspective is so remarkable...
UConn winning would get them much closer to being a 4 seed
Creighton winning would clinch them a spot in the tourney you'd think- and may keep them out of Dayton even.
Could really see a good argument for either side of that coin as to which way is better to go for the league.

And other games are interesting as well for different teams....
LSU/Arkansas a good example.
LSU wins and could easily pass UConn. Loses and could easily fall behind Marquette
Arkansas wins and could easily pass Providence. Loses and gets much easier for UConn to pass them.
so really not an easy one where result definitely helps the league out.

[kayako]

The UConn/Creighton game from a league perspective is so remarkable...
UConn winning would get them much closer to being a 4 seed
Creighton winning would clinch them a spot in the tourney you'd think- and may keep them out of Dayton even.
Could really see a good argument for either side of that coin as to which way is better to go for the league.

And other games are interesting as well for different teams....
LSU/Arkansas a good example.
LSU wins and could easily pass UConn. Loses and could easily fall behind Marquette
Arkansas wins and could easily pass Providence. Loses and gets much easier for UConn to pass them.
so really not an easy one where result definitely helps the league out.

Rutgers/Indiana is fascinating as well. It seems like bracketologists are all over the place with those 2 teams. Could be the most important bubble game tonight.

[stever20]

The UConn/Creighton game from a league perspective is so remarkable...
UConn winning would get them much closer to being a 4 seed
Creighton winning would clinch them a spot in the tourney you'd think- and may keep them out of Dayton even.
Could really see a good argument for either side of that coin as to which way is better to go for the league.

And other games are interesting as well for different teams....
LSU/Arkansas a good example.
LSU wins and could easily pass UConn. Loses and could easily fall behind Marquette
Arkansas wins and could easily pass Providence. Loses and gets much easier for UConn to pass them.
so really not an easy one where result definitely helps the league out.

Rutgers/Indiana is fascinating as well. It seems like bracketologists are all over the place with those 2 teams. Could be the most important bubble game tonight.

I agree. Win and probably puts Rutgers in the tourney with a win against Penn St. They'd be 17-12 with 1 game left against Penn St. Indiana has more of a shot with a loss- though might need a win @ Purdue or at least 1 win in Big Ten tourney- with 1st game looking like as 9 seed in 8/9 game against a pretty good team.

[Savannah Jay]

The UConn/Creighton game from a league perspective is so remarkable...
UConn winning would get them much closer to being a 4 seed
Creighton winning would clinch them a spot in the tourney you'd think- and may keep them out of Dayton even.
Could really see a good argument for either side of that coin as to which way is better to go for the league.

UConn is going to make noise in the NCAAT whether they are a 4, 5, or 6 seed. What's best for the conference is for them to be very competitive tonight but, ultimately, recognize this is a bid clincher for the Jays and that would be best for the Big East if the Jays win.

Strictly an objective viewpoint...

[MackNova]

There is a big difference between a 4 seed and a 5 seed. The 12 seeds this year look like they could be very frisky. The top low-major teams are better than usual, and the major conference teams on the bubble have a higher ceiling than normal. Facing a 13 instead of a 12 is big.

I think it's more important for the league to have teams make deep runs in March as opposed to just getting teams in, so if the goal is to root for the best outcome for the conference, I think it's UConn.

If Nembhard were healthy, I would argue to root for Creighton because I think Creighton would be good enough to win a game or two in March. Without him, I think Creighton is a dead team walking if they make the tournament.

[stever20]

There is a big difference between a 4 seed and a 5 seed. The 12 seeds this year look like they could be very frisky. The top low-major teams are better than usual, and the major conference teams on the bubble have a higher ceiling than normal. Facing a 13 instead of a 12 is big.

I think it's more important for the league to have teams make deep runs in March as opposed to just getting teams in, so if the goal is to root for the best outcome for the conference, I think it's UConn.

If Nembhard were healthy, I would argue to root for Creighton because I think Creighton would be good enough to win a game or two in March. Without him, I think Creighton is a dead team walking if they make the tournament.

Yeah I agree the 12 line with North Texas, Iona, South Dakota St, and then a PIG winner will be tougher than normal(and 5/12 always normally pretty tough)
the 13 line right now is Chattanooga, Northern Iowa, New Mexico St(who just lost to Chicago St), and Toledo(if they can survive the MAC). Pretty big difference there.

[Savannah Jay]

There is a big difference between a 4 seed and a 5 seed. The 12 seeds this year look like they could be very frisky. The top low-major teams are better than usual, and the major conference teams on the bubble have a higher ceiling than normal. Facing a 13 instead of a 12 is big.

I think it's more important for the league to have teams make deep runs in March as opposed to just getting teams in, so if the goal is to root for the best outcome for the conference, I think it's UConn.

If Nembhard were healthy, I would argue to root for Creighton because I think Creighton would be good enough to win a game or two in March. Without him, I think Creighton is a dead team walking if they make the tournament.

Bite your tongue, Mack. There's no room for logic on a basketball message board. (UConn and my Bluejays can both ignore this comment).

[stever20]

It's amazing how seeds at certain places makes such a huge difference. And others it really doesn't even just making the 2nd weekend....

36 tournaments now with the current 64-68 team format....
1/16 143-1 .993
2/15 135-9 .938
3/14 122-22 .847
4/13 113-31 .785
5/12 93-51 .646
6/11 90-54 .625
7/10 87-57 .604
8/9 71-73 .493

And in round 2 to advance to the sweet 16-
1/8/9/16 pod- 1 123, 8 14, 9 7
2/7/10/15 pod- 2 91, 7 28, 10 23, 15 2
3/6/11/14 pod- 3 75, 6 43 11 24, 14 2
4/5/12/13 pod- 4 67, 5 49, 12 22, 13 6