Tourney Watch 2/14/22

[kayako]

I didn't realize how awful Iowa's resume is. Pretty crazy that they're a projected 8 seed right now. It's all metrics and conference affiliation with them.

Iowa and UNC have no resume at all. The committee has to be able to see through the metrics and leave them out right?

It seems like every year there's a team like Iowa that's safely in these bracket projections and IIRC they usually do get in. FWIW Jerry Palm has Iowa as 11 seed and UNC out of the tournament. Lunardi has Iowa as 7 seed, lol.

[kayako]

Oregon has a tough path ahead. Creighton can make this another good night for them if they can take care of business in Chicago.

[kayako]

I believe the Dons are screwed now unless they can beat Gonzaga. And BYU needs to win @SMC this weekend or I believe they're screwed also. The WCC tournament has this stupid format that makes #5 seed (currently BYU) highly undesirable.

[stever20]

I believe the Dons are screwed now unless they can beat Gonzaga. And BYU needs to win @SMC this weekend or I believe they're screwed also. The WCC tournament has this stupid format that makes #5 seed (currently BYU) highly undesirable.

USF still has 3 Q1 wins. I don't see how they're screwed at all. BYU I'm much more in agreement with you on.

I think worst case based on where they are- USF would be 4 and BYU would be 5. The winner of their QF game (after BYU wins 1st round game) would likely be very safe. Think 3 is still very likely and 4 is still not out of the realm of possibility.

[kayako]

USF still has 3 Q1 wins. I don't see how they're screwed at all. BYU I'm much more in agreement with you on.

I think worst case based on where they are- USF would be 4 and BYU would be 5. The winner of their QF game (after BYU wins 1st round game) would likely be very safe. Think 3 is still very likely and 4 is still not out of the realm of possibility.

Santa Clara may become Q2 tomorrow, and they won't get any Q1 opportunity other than Gonzaga games. They're screwed IMO because lack of opportunities to make some much needed buffer against the cutoff line. I agree that 3 bids look most likely for the WCC, and I'm starting to be convinced that 2 is more likely than 4.

[kayako]

For the first time this season, I'm fairly confident that PAC12 is a 3 bid conference. Oregon's still in the bubble, but getting crushed by Cal and ASU is not a good look.

[stever20]

USF still has 3 Q1 wins. I don't see how they're screwed at all. BYU I'm much more in agreement with you on.

I think worst case based on where they are- USF would be 4 and BYU would be 5. The winner of their QF game (after BYU wins 1st round game) would likely be very safe. Think 3 is still very likely and 4 is still not out of the realm of possibility.

Santa Clara may become Q2 tomorrow, and they won't get any Q1 opportunity other than Gonzaga games. They're screwed IMO because lack of opportunities to make some much needed buffer against the cutoff line. I agree that 3 bids look most likely for the WCC, and I'm starting to be convinced that 2 is more likely than 4.

BYU could easily be a Q1 in the WCC tourney for them(only need top 50 for that).

I just think the WCC teams are going to get in over a laggard like UNC who doesn't have a single Q1 win at all.

[stever20]

For the first time this season, I'm fairly confident that PAC12 is a 3 bid conference. Oregon's still in the bubble, but getting crushed by Cal and ASU is not a good look.

next 3 very tough for Oregon- Arizona, UCLA, and USC. If go 0-3 going to be really tough for them.

[stever20]

USF still has 3 Q1 wins. I don't see how they're screwed at all. BYU I'm much more in agreement with you on.

I think worst case based on where they are- USF would be 4 and BYU would be 5. The winner of their QF game (after BYU wins 1st round game) would likely be very safe. Think 3 is still very likely and 4 is still not out of the realm of possibility.

Santa Clara may become Q2 tomorrow, and they won't get any Q1 opportunity other than Gonzaga games. They're screwed IMO because lack of opportunities to make some much needed buffer against the cutoff line. I agree that 3 bids look most likely for the WCC, and I'm starting to be convinced that 2 is more likely than 4.

BYU could easily be a Q1 in the WCC tourney for them(only need top 50 for that).

I just think the WCC teams are going to get in over a laggard like UNC who doesn't have a single Q1 win at all.

and the other thing about the WCC- St Mary's is pretty much a lock now so if BYU beats them, that's going to really help them getting 4 in.

[kayako]

and the other thing about the WCC- St Mary's is pretty much a lock now so if BYU beats them, that's going to really help them getting 4 in.

Yeah, only a 4 game losing streak makes it dicey for them. But even if BYU wins @SMC, I don't believe they're safe. What will likely happen in the next few weeks is a couple of power conference bubble teams taking massive wins Syracuse style, and eventually bid thieves out of the usual suspects (A10, etc.,) making the "last four in" territory not a great place to be in atm.