The Next Five Years [ From 16 July 2018 ]

[Hall2012]

Husky, one of us now. Fire away.

I don’t get the “lack of respect” angle. We’ve got 2 teams in many of the preseason top 10 lists. Has that happened in the last 6 years before? The conf lost a lot of talent. Who else should be ranked?

Look, even with a modified schedule, we’ll be fine. Hypothetically is SHU finishes in a 3 way tie with VU and CU like last year in just conf games they’ll be a top 4 seed. Our conf has enough cache that if you finish with a respectable record in the top half of the conf there’s a good chance you’re getting a bid.

Yes, our top teams will be solidly in without a problem. My point was mainly that I think it'll be tougher to get those 5th and 6th place teams in than it has been in the past. Those teams are often helped by our bottom 2-3 teams maintaining solid overall rankings thanks to OOC results that can keep them counting as q2 games. Last year was obviously a particularly extreme example, but there's no way DePaul's going to be able to have a .167 conference winning % and still be a top 90 NET team (nor will SJU and Gtown be top 70 at .278). It'll leave our bubble teams will less helpful wins and potentially more painful losses.

[GoldenWarrior11]

Thanks for merging. Always a treat to go back and read some of my old posts (as well as other's). Definitely keeps things in perspective.

Well, UConn is back (hooray!). We have moved to a 20-game schedule, keeping pace with the other power basketball conferences and adding content and inventory to our Fox relationship. We have added the Battle with the Big 12. We have ideally positioned ourselves with Fox in advance of our next round of TV negotiations. So, where can we go from here?

Firstly, we need to get St. John's, Georgetown and DePaul up, not for the sake of equality but because those markets (New York City, Washington D.C. and Chicago) provide huge value in terms of exposure and fan support. They don't need to turn into Villanova, but if they can get to the present Creighton/Seton Hall/Providence competitiveness, we would see our attendance increase as as well as our national exposure (especially in the case of Georgetown due to its brand).

Secondly, we do need to extend our Gavitt Games deal with the B1G, and - given COVID - this is very likely IMO. Adding UConn, which remains within both of our footprints, we could look to add another game annually, or more, and look to overlap in areas to cut down travel for our programs. I don't think either conference would want to see matchups like Marquette/Wisconsin, Creighton/Nebraska, Seton Hall/Rutgers, Georgetown/Maryland, etc. assimilated as Gavitt Games, but rather continue to attempt to cut down long-distance travel as much as possible, while preserving this high-level matchups long-term.

Finally, and to echo my thoughts from two years ago, we definitely need to look at a Throwback Night within conference play. All teams wear throwback jerseys, Fox uses old school graphics, and try to honor celebrate the BE/program legends at select games. Our past and our history is what drives our present and future success.

As for predictions, I will hold firm in my belief that I can see Ewing, Leitao and Wojo not being around in 2-3 years (I accurately predicted Mullin would be gone). I think Wright, Cooley, Willard (who I had originally believed would leave), McDermott, Hurley, Jordan, Steele and Anderson will all still be here. I think we hold firm at 11 for the next few years. I also think that UConn will win a BET in that time frame, that DePaul will finally make an NCAA Tournament, we will have a non-Villanova team make the Final Four, and that we will have at least one national champion that we will all be able to celebrate.

[gtmoBlue]

good question Gumby.

The Hall lost a bunch. Butler has their best class ever, #42 overall. Four of the Dogs 2020 recruits are in their all-time top 10. Marquette has a good class coming in. #1 in the BE (#20 overall). UConn has the #2 (#22 overall) in the conference.
X has the #3 BE class (#23 overall) entering this season. UConn has a great core returning with their class and Marquette did well in the transfer market.

Taking a swing at it, my choices for other BE schools being ranked are: approx.#17-20 UConn and #22-25 Marquette.

BillyJack. Looks as though you've put substantial thought into your expanded NCAA Tourney idea. It'd be a shame and a waste of good brainpower to draw it up and NOT share it.
Roll with it, baby. Let's see the creation. Maybe the "good folks" in Shawnee Mission, KS/Indianapolis (NCAA) will steal your idea.

[GumbyDamnit!]

good question Gumby.

The Hall lost a bunch. Butler has their best class ever. Marquette has a good class coming in. #1 in the BE (#20 overall). UConn has the #2 (#22 overall) in the conference.
X has the #3 BE class (#23 overall) entering this season. UConn has a great core returning with their class and Marquette did well in the transfer market.

Taking a swing at it, my choices for other BE schools being ranked are: approx.#17-20 UConn and #22-25 Marquette.

I mean it’s worth discussion but it’s not a slight not having either in. MU did just lose their AA, and UConn finished strong but still finished with a so-so record in a so-so conference. They were looking at missing the tourney most likely. Had they been in the BE they’d finish 8th in KenPom rating last year. Bouk’s a nice player but can you really make the case that they’re being disrespected by not being ranked? Tell me the 2-3 teams that absolutely don’t deserve their preseason ranking and let’s compare resumes and rosters.

[DudeAnon]

I love that this thread was created after X had just had the #1 seed, made the elite eight the year prior and been a 2 seed the year before that. But according to gtmo, that is "good not great".

[gtmoBlue]

UConn and Marquette vs Umm, yeah. Pick one...

18. North Carolina (14-19). The 2019-20 season was a nightmare for the Tar Heels in coach Roy Williams' most frustrating season at the helm, so expect UNC to come out with new life in 2020-21. Carolina will likely lose standout freshman Cole Anthony to the NBA draft, but the Tar Heels have reloaded with a talented freshman class made up of three five-stars in Day’Ron Sharpe, Walker Kessler and Caleb Love.
North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Roy Williams should have better days in 2020-21.
Finished outside of the top 50. Lost his star player in Cole Anthony and 6 Srs. Will be reliant on average returnees and 3 frosh this season. Projected starter Soph Ctr Bacot shot >47% and commited 55 T/O's. PF Garrison Brooks is their only offense returning, both spots will rely on frosh as backups. SF Black (6-7) is their only reliable wing. He needs to improve on his 35.9 percent field goal shooting, and his 25.4 percent mark from three-point range. There is talk of replacing Black with 5-11/165 frosh RJ Davis. Need I continue? https://keepingitheel.com/2020/03/23/un ... -lineup/3/


19. Michigan State (22-9). Coach Tom Izzo will lose Cassius Winston and likely Xavier Tillman from a preseason title favorite that underachieved in 2019-20. But some of his best teams have been ones that didn't have much hype, which next year's roster will fall under. Marquette transfer Joey Hauser will be eligible to join returnees Aaron Henry and Rocket Watts. It's also possible Joshua Langford, who was sidelined all season with a foot injury, decides to stay.
Preseason #1. Dropped out of polls. Finished 9th/12th AP & Coaches. Lost the heart of his team in Winston. Also Xavier Tillman, Aaron Henry, and recruit Karim Mane in Draft. Mane skipping college. No guarantee that Sr. Langford will return. MSU will rely on SG Rocket Watts, backup PG Foster Loyer, and frosh AJ Hoggard to run the PG spot. Gabe Brown returns. Add frosh C Maddy Sissisko. This is a roster that oozes confidence-(Sarcasm). Joey Hauser adds his 10 pts/5 rbds. IZZO gets overwwhelming credit, but doesn't play. Coach is the only reason they're in the Top 25. https://fansided.com/2020/03/21/michiga ... 0-preview/


20. UCLA (19-12). Coach Mick Cronin turned a disastrous season into a second-place finish in the Pac-12 and a potential NCAA tournament at-large bid. Cronin did that with a bare-bones roster in Westwood, so expect 2020-21 to start off better with a more experienced group and incoming talent, namely five-star freshman Daishen Nix. Nix to the NBA G-League.Finished #40. Lost 3 Srs-incl. 2 5-year players/starters, and Shareef O'Neal to LSU. Lost top frosh to G-League. Bring in Juzang and a frosh, amounting to loads of depth. Bruins are an injury away from disaster.
https://www.dailynews.com/2020/03/29/ho ... 20-season/

UCLA (19-12, 12-6)
It took awhile for the Bruins to get going last year under first-year coach Mick Cronin, but once they did, they nearly won the league title, winning 11 of their last 14 and finishing second, a game behind Oregon.

All the starters are back with 6-9 Chris Smith (13.1 ppg), the Pac-12’s most improved player, being a question mark because of a possible NBA early entry. Starters Jalen Hill, Tyger Campbell, Jaime Jaquez and Cody Riley all return, and the Bruins added Johnny Juzang, a 6-5 wing who was granted a waiver to play after a disappointing season at Kentucky. The Bruins had signed Daishen Nix, a five-star recruit, rated the No. 1 point guard in the nation, but in April Nix decided to forgo college and play in the NBA’s G League next season instead.

22. LSU (21-10). The Tigers lose leading scorer Skylar Mays but coach Will Wade brings back plenty of talent – including several players averaging double figures – and welcomes five-star guard Cameron Thomas. This group should be well positioned to vie for the SEC title. If transfer Shareef O'Neal, Shaq's son, is granted eligibility for 2020-21, look out. Will give the benefit of the doubt.

23. Florida (19-12). Coach Michael White went out and got the nation's top junior college transfer in Osayi Osifo, a 6-8 versatile forward. He'll join a returning nucleus of Keyontae Johnson, Andrew Nembhard and Noah Locke. If rising sophomore Scottie Lewis waits a year on the NBA it'll be a nice bonus. Nembhard to Zags, but Lewis is staying in Gainesville. Benefit of the doubt.


24. Oklahoma State (18-14). The Cowboys welcome the nation's top recruit, Cade Cunningham (No. 1 per 247 Sports Composite list) to a roster that will have size and athleticism. Guard Isaac Likekele, the team's second leading scorer, could be an ideal sidekick to Cunningham. Finished out of the Top 50. I player does not a season make. Cunningham is Not Ralph Sampson...duh.

25. Arizona State (20-11). Coach Bob Hurley drifted his team away from the NCAA tournament bubble this March after back-to-back seasons ending up in the First Four. In 2020-21 he should have a team poised to compete for the Pac-12 title again. Remy Martin (19.1 ppg) and Alonzo Verge Jr. (14.6 ppg) are top returners on a roster that welcomes elite freshman Marcus Bagley. Out of the Top 50. Lost to Colorado, UVA, St Marys (Tempe), and Cr8n (Tempe) in non-con. Lost 7 in conference games, incl. 3 of last 4.

Also considered: Indiana, Northern Iowa, Colorado, Purdue, Texas, Southern California, Rutgers, Illinois, Louisville, Connecticut.


Yeah, pick one or 2...three even. UNC, MSU, UCLA, Okla St, and ASU. All these teams are overrated for 2020-21. Plenty of room for UConn and Marquette to enter the Top 25 for the upcoming season. gtmo

[GumbyDamnit!]

Git:

I will agree that the pollsters often overrate recruiting talent coming in and many of these teams that you cite are bringing in huge, talent-laden classes.

UNC - #2 class (3 top 25)
LSU #6 (1 top 25)
ASU #7 (3 top 30 players)
Okl. St - #13 (with the #1 player)


18). UNC - lost 3 starters for large swaths of last year because of injury. Never got on track. They lose a couple of players but they also retain and bring in a LOT of talent. Also Roy Williams, love him or hate him, is the most accomplished coach in college BB short of Coach K. I fully expect a bounce back year.

19). Mich St. - You're assuming the worst. You sound like Stever on this one. Mich St. for all their disappointment last year finished 7th in KenPom and NET. To just casually say that coaching is not that relevant for a program like Mich St. is silly. I recall some X fans last year saying similar things about Nova and Jay W. Programs like Mich St. rarely rebuild...they reload. And I would not bet against Izzo.

20). UCLA - Finished very strong in a much improved Pac-12. They had a trajectory much like UConn in a much tougher league. Kid from UK will certainly help. Young team returning most of it's players who seemed to gel. I don't think this is egregious either. I thought you folks west of the Mississippi hated the East Coast bias that is clearly at play in these polls. Also if you're counting on injuries to derail them, how would the Jays fare with a starter going down? Depending on whom, it would be a disaster as well.

22. LSU - Really nice talent returning; a top 25 kid coming in to fill a need...heck, even a former BE player (LeBlanc) who's pretty good, filling out the roster. 28 Net last year so they were a solid tourney team already. They'd get my vote for tail end of the Top 25.

23. FL - Top 30 KenPom/NET. Lose their PG but picked the Juco and another Top 50 recruit. I imagine Lewis will take a step forward. Again, is their roster worse than UConn or Marq's? They've certainly had more success the past few years as a program. Maybe some of it is reputation like UNC and Mich St.

24. Okl .St. - This is all about one thing and one thing only: Cade Cunningham. #1 player coming out of H.S. I think this is a hype vote. I could probably agree with you here. Not sure the Cunningham tide will lift the rest of the Okl St boats.

25. Ariz State - He's got some players to work with. MArtin and Verge can play; killer recruiting class. Considering what they bring back and gain, I'm not sure either MU or UConn can argue here. Losing to UVA and CU is not shameful...so what's your point there?

So maybe Okl. St. is questionable IMO

But let's flip the script.

MU- Loses 2x AA Howard. Brightsiders will say it will lead to more ball sharing and a better balanced team. Howard scored a ton. He was really good--not just some gunner. The OSU PG transfer is a player but can Cain or McEwen take steps forward. Promising looking Frosh but who knows. I think MU could be good but from a voters standpoint (and this probably applies to SHU as well), they see that they are losing their Alpha AA and probably taking a wait and see approach.

UConn - They lost some talent. They also finished 6th in a mediocre league. But wait...they finished strong. Yeah, 5 stragiht at the end of the season and 4 of those were: Tulane, ECU, USF and UCF (4 of the bottom 5 teams in the league). Oh, and they lost to another one of those bottom teams (Temple) right before their big final run. So a win at home vs. Houston is what you are hanging your hat on for why they should be ranked? Can UConn take a step forward this year? Sure. But they could also struggle. If Bouknight doesn't become the 2nd coming of Jeremy Lamb they may not be a tourney team. But why would a team that would have been on the outside of tourney bid, who lost a couple starters, be considered Top 25? Oh yeah, that impressive close to the season.

[gtmoBlue]

Okay Gumby. Let's say we give MSU, LSU, and FLA the benefit of the doubt. It appears that you are undervaluing the 2020 recruiting classes of both Marquette (#20) and UConn (#22), while at the same time over emphasizing the classes of the ff schools in question. It is doubtful that the recruits will make that significant a contribution to allow UNC, OK St, Ariz St, and UClA t0 Make a 25 to 35 position leap up the polls from out of the Top 50 to significant ranking. Except in the eyes of the AP writers, of course.

Can school (UNC, UCLA, Ok St., Ariz St.) take a step forward this year? Sure. But they could also struggle. If (Star Player) doesn't become the 2nd coming of Jeremy Lamb they may not be a tourney team. But why would a team that was out of the Top 50 (exception: UCLA #40), and would have been on the outside of tourney bid, who lost a couple starters, be considered Top 25? Oh yeah, that impressive name on the front of their jerseys and a couple of incoming frosh recruits.

There is Big Name/Football Five bias at work here, not East Coast bias on this occasion.

[NJRedman]

Who writes 16 July 2018 instead of July 16th 2018? What are you European?

[GumbyDamnit!]

It’s certainly debatable Git but there is a BIG difference between 3rd ranked class and 20th ranked class. Garcia and Jackson both look like can’t miss players. UNC and Ariz St both have 2 players coming in ranked significantly higher. So there is a reason I’m overvaluing those classes over the BE ones.
I just don’t think this is some big conspiracy / bias. CU is certainly getting respect. I do think the team not getting respect might be SHU more so than UConn or Marquette. They have the potential to be a solid team IMO.