The Next Five Years [ From 16 July 2018 ]

[adoraz]

Why not both? Try splitting like the Big Ten did.

I'm honestly fine with either 100% Fox, 100% ESPN, or a split. I trust the league because they always make the right move.

From a personal non-business/ratings standpoint though, I actually prefer Fox. I like being able to watch so many games on TV and FSGO is better than ESPN3 (at least for me, anyone else agree? ESPN3 streaming sucks).

We'll be in a position of power next time the negotiations come around. Last time we weren't, which is why we secretly made the Fox deal without discussing with ESPN.

[gtmoBlue]

GW11, Gumby, Adoraz... excellent points. We've got a good thing going with Fox. A bit of competition for the TV folks is a good thing. If ESPN wants a shot in airing the BE they will need to do better than a bunch of ESPN3 slots and the current money levels. BE content is great and Fox has the cash to increase the contract. Fox has historically (this contract) sold off portions to others (CBS, etc) perhaps we could se a 50/50 deal such as with the B1G or other type of split contract? CBS may opt to bid on a portion directly. Competition is good.

Good points as to the ESPN commentary shifts. Things along those lines will continue to happen as we get nearer to renegotiation time. We are sitting pretty at this point and can look forward to a good negotiation for the future.
My God, imagine the roof blowing off this sucker if Gtwn or St Johns resurges!!! TEN Million/year EACH! Yeah, right. (edited to keep it clean and cordial)...

[gtmoBlue]

In mid-July 2018 I posed questions in a post titled: The Next 5 Years.

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=6547

It was an attempt to get feedback and prognostications on where the
BEast was heading. Was a good topic with excellent feedback from GW11, Edrick, Adoraz, Gumby and others.

The Next Five Years
Postby gtmoBlue » Mon Jul 16, 2018 8:08 pm

The next 5 years... Please, no expansion discussions on this thread. Dig up one of the many expansion threads if you must, but no expansion issues or discussion here. No UConn speculation here either, this strictly for current configuration forecasting only.

Can G'twn, Marquette, & St John's find the means to build a resurgence? Many BE fans want these 3 to aid in increasing the conferences standing. What measurable and tangible benefits, if any, could be expected If one or more resurge? Who falls, if and when they should rise?

Who will be the next DePaul hire? Will it matter?

Can the conference continue to be top 5 without change? What effects, if any, will the resurgence of any/all Gtwn, Marq, StJ have on the conference's status? How can we best take advantage of our strengths?

What will the next TV contract look like (without expansion...no expansion discussion on this thread)?

Will the conference build out the BEDN into an all out sports platform for BE and other conferences programming? The BEDN, if done correctly, will be our greatest revenue stream.

Is Providence the next power team, assendent to the BE throne? A good team, they keep getting better, with 5 straight NCAAs. Does Cooley have what it takes to take them to the top/make them great?

Butler and Creighton...both keep surprising. What's next for these 2 in recruiting and in the BE hierarchy? Butler is in a great recruiting hotbed...can they win the BE?
Creighton is the outlier...can they become "another Syracuse" as was suggested years back (without the cheating, of course)?

Nova? Continue to reign or fall back to the pack?

X? Good but not great...can continuity in coaches continue to keep them in the top tier? Will they continue to thrive?

Seton Hall? Willard...can he get the job done? Will they remain a midtier team? Can they improve their recruiting and their lot?

Who are our top 4 teams in (5 years) 2023? What is the pecking order of all teams in 2023?


Please chime in.

UPDATE:

Villanova remains the standard bearer/leader, with Creighton and Seton Hall both surging up the standings.
Providence and Xavier have fallen off the pace into a tie for 5th place.
Butler has slid down from 5th into 7th place...basically switching with Marquette.
Marquette has moved up from 7th (First 5 years) to 4th thus far, while Gtwn & StJ have held fast in 8th & 9th respectively.
DePaul remains DePaul.

1st Five years: Standing / overall 5 year average standing

1 Nova (1.2)
2 Prov (3.4)
3 Xav (3.8)
4 Cr8n (4.6)
5 SH (4.8)
5 But (4.8)
7 Marq (6.2)
8 Gtwn (6.8)
9 StJ (7)
10 Dep (9)

2nd Five years thus far: Standing / 2 year avg standing

1 Nova 1
2 Cr8n 2
2 SH 2
4 Marq 4
5 Prov 4.5
5 Xavier 4.5
7 Butler 5
8 Gtwn 6
8 St Johns 6
10 DePaul 7.5

Villanova continues rolling along. Sooommmmeeebody PLEEEZE nuke Radnor Township.
Jays and SH (Powell) have moved up these last 2 years. Willard is beginning to become a fixture in the league.
He may receive a Mac "lifetime" contract?
Marquette has had a modest resurgence in the Hauser/Howard era and seems poised to continue the same.
Providence and Xavier have fallen off a bit. However, with the state of their recruiting and the continuity of
their coaching regimes, they could return to their lofty initial 5 year status. It goes without saying that everyone
else in the league is recruiting well also. Time will tell.
So much for the resurgence of Gtwn/St Johns...Coaching changes, player attrition, learning new systems, etc. All
have contributed to continued stagnation at both programs.

The league has remained a top 3 basketball conference. In 2019-20 the BEast placed #1 Net, #1 RPI, #1 SOS, #2 CBS,
and #5 Kenpom. We've added UConn (got ranked at end of last season) back into the fold and they also have a great incoming class.
Should be fun, IF there is a season to play.

DePaul - Kicking butts in the non-conference slate, but "Biz as Usual" during Big East fare. Leitao got an extension
to his contract.

Who are our top 4 teams in (5 years) 2023? What is the pecking order of all teams in 2023?

Edrick had stated he would do this...but 2 years is a ways to wait. So i stepped up...prepping for mid August predictions.
Edrick's take was using past results to predict the next 5 years. If past results actually reflect future performance, then
Prov and X will surge over these next few years, while the Jays, Pirates, and Warrior/GE's will slip a couple of notches.
However, I am not convinced that either Prov or Xavier will perform to former standards. Prov has old UConn back and will
have visions (and performances) like the Prov of old (OBE). Xavier has yet to
show if Steele can really coach. The proof is in the pudding. I'm adopted by Missourians - show me, Bubba!!
I'll guess the current top4 hold serve til 2023, with the Jays slipping past the Cats 3-to-2.

From my seat in the plush, luxurious, well appointed, and fully stocked buffet and bar, expensive corporate skybox -
it looks like a Bluejay World! The rest o'youse are just passing by. These next 3 years are Creighton champeenship years.
Coronavirus or no damned virus. Roll damn Jays!


Luv ya,
gtmoBlue

[billyjack]

Bump for gtmo's new thread.

[adoraz]

It's been a very good couple years (COVID aside). What's ironic is your OP said not to mention expansion candidates such as UConn, which of course ended up being the biggest change since then. I agree with not discussing expansion though given it often dominates conversation and becomes repetitive.

As for the standings, unfortunately they haven't changed much. Lil Creighton and Seton Hall made big leaps. It's amazing that Georgetown/St. John's/DePaul and to a lesser extent Marquette have been down for so long. Even when we have good OOC slates we still get destroyed in Big East play. I do still think by the end of this 5 year period St. John's will be around #4-6 rather than #8-9.

League overall is in excellent shape, strengthened over the past couple years with the addition of UConn, another excellent season, 2 additional P5 challenges and the MSG extension.

[gtmoBlue]

*** Billyjack: You can merge this new stuff into the old thread, if you like. git

Will the BEast have enough ranked teams in a shortened Jan-Mar regular season?

From the looks of things: Pre-season polls, articles, posts, and the like....NO. Most polls and pundits only have
2 BE teams ranked, Villanova and the Jays. the BE only has 2 other teams in a few of the "also receiving votes" category.
In that area only UConn and Providence are receiving any attention. UConn isn't "expansion" since July 1st-they're Big East.
So what does this mean?

In a shortened season, whether with a abbreviated non-con or beginning in January with conference-only play, the Big East will
get less respect and conference games will have less impact than say last season where we have 3-4 teams ranked consistently.

The loss of headliner games in the non-con slate and the loss of Thanksgiving exempt tourney slates will punish the Big East compared
to the football five (ff), as most of the ff will have 4 or more top 25 rated teams. With only 2 ranked teams, there will be fewer
Quad 1 games to be spread throughout the conference slate. Also there will be less in-conference "marquee games" between ranked opponents.
As such, BE teams climbing up the top 50 status will have fewer showcase opportunities to impress the AP and Coaches Polls voters.

Now Bart Torvik has six Big East teams in his projected top 50 and StJ just outside @ #51. The RPI & NET should also conform to this over time,
so Quad 1 and 2 games may not take as big a hit as I personally expect. However, the negative impacts would be lessened in a shortened
non-con season with some ff games, but exacerbated in a conference-only slate of games. Current projections are for 5 BE teams to dance and the
Torvik slate goes along with that best case notion.

UConn has brought in an outstanding, #22 nationally, recruiting class to augment its' roster. Though no 5-stars, they have three 4-star recruits headlined
by #50 SF Andre Jackson and #77 C Adama Sanogo, Canadian C Javonte Brown-Ferguson, and one sit-1 transfer in Rutgers transfer SG Tyrese Martin.
Based upon their 2019-20 finish at 19-12 winning their last 5 games, strong returning cast (Bouknight, Gilbert, RJ Cole, Whaley, Polley and others), &
incoming recruits. When you couple the above with the bump from their return to the Big East, future preseason polls should have the Huskies ranked in
the 18-22 range by the start of the season.

Providence signed two 3-star recruits and also 2 sit-one transfers, which is not enough to impress pollsters. The Friars definitely would benefit from
Bryce Goodine getting a waiver and the team playing all or part of the non-conference slate in order to rack up signature wins, in order to jump ten
spots up into the Top 25.

At this point the best case scenario is having UConn begin in the bottom half of the Top 25 and move up from there. With 3 ranked teams the Big East should
gain enough respect to meet preseason expectations for dancing come March 2020.

[Hall2012]

That's an unfortunately good point gtmo. The Big East rarely gets much pre-season love and this year looks to be no different. However, the league normally dominates OOC play to command enough respect for 5-6+ tourney bids to be reasonable. Without that opportunity, we could unfortunately see some strong teams left out in favor of weaker ones from leagues like the B1G and ACC. Hopefully the Big East gets the respect it deserves and that doesn't happen.

[billyjack]

Regarding teams not getting enough games in to impress pollsters in January thru early March, i can actually see an extreme expansion of the NCAA tourney to account for this, and to generate more TV money, assuming no fans. The number of NCAA teams for the 2021 tourney could go from 68 to at least 128, and even something like 192 probably could be considered. And it could be regional to reduce travel.

16 regions of 12 teams... i have it all pictured in my head... regions, teams, host cities... also, this may seem as though I'm stoned, but I'm not.

Regions could include:

Northeast:
(1) New England,
(2) NY State,
(3) Penn-NJ,
(4) MD-DC-VA-WVa

South:
(5) Carolinas-Georgia,
(6) Florida-Alabama,
(7) KY-Tenn-Mississippi,
(8) Louisiana- Arkansas- Eastern Texas,

Midwest:
(9) Ohio-Michigan,
(10) Indy-Illinois,
(11) Wisc-Minn-Iowa-Dakotas,
(12) Nebraska-Kansas-Okla-Missouri,

West:
(13) Western Texas-NMex-Ariz-Colorado-Wyo,
(14) Utah-Idaho-Mont-Washington-Oregon,
(15) Nevada & Northern California,
(16) Southern California & Hawaii.

I even have the teams in each region formulated in my head. I can list those too if you guys want me to. Seriously, I'm not stoned.

[Husky_U]

Sooooooo Is UCONN speculation now allowed?

[GumbyDamnit!]

Husky, one of us now. Fire away.

I don’t get the “lack of respect” angle. We’ve got 2 teams in many of the preseason top 10 lists. Has that happened in the last 6 years before? The conf lost a lot of talent. Who else should be ranked?

Look, even with a modified schedule, we’ll be fine. Hypothetically is SHU finishes in a 3 way tie with VU and CU like last year in just conf games they’ll be a top 4 seed. Our conf has enough cache that if you finish with a respectable record in the top half of the conf there’s a good chance you’re getting a bid.