Rankings for 2020-21

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Re: Rankings for 2020-21

Postby adoraz » Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:26 pm

GTMO- you're forgetting UConn. The Big East didn't do a great job in the 90's but it did in the mid-late 80's (right before your cutoff) and also the 10's.

Here's a stat that matters more than any of the ones you listed, NCAA Tournament championships over the last 20 years:
1999 UConn
2004 UConn
2011 UConn
2014 UConn (with AAC)
2016 Nova
2018 Nova

Current Big East teams have won 6/20 of the most recent championships. That's an excellent number by any standard. No other conference besides the ACC has done better or has even come close. Conferences like the B1G haven't won in decades.

Also, Butler made the Championship twice this decade and Gonzaga made it a few years ago.

What's happened over the past 60 years (your timeframe) is teams in the larger conferences (including the Big East) win more often while mid-majors (and even conferences like the A10) have almost no shot anymore. We won't see schools like UTEP, San Fran, La Salle or Holy Cross winning anytime soon (all since the mid 50's but no success since).
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Re: Rankings for 2020-21

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Re: Rankings for 2020-21

Postby gtmoBlue » Wed Apr 01, 2020 1:46 pm

Thanks.


1990- present Only 3 non-pwr teams have won the NCAA: Nova 2, S'cuse 1.
Forgot UConn in 2014. However, that number of non-power conf. champs would remain 3, as the 2003 Syracuse 's version of the BE WAS a power conference.


Your point is well taken ico "What's happened over the past 60 years (your timeframe) is teams in the larger conferences (including the Big East) win more often while (the rest) mid-majors (and even conferences like the A10) have almost no shot anymore. We won't see schools like UTEP, San Fran, La Salle or Holy Cross winning anytime soon (all since the mid 50's but no success since)."

All the various rules changes, changes to the basketball tourney, and legal challenges have incrementally led us to this point. It has been designed over these decades to favor the majors to the detriment of the rest of Div 1 schools.
"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win." - Nicholas Klein (1918)
"Top tier teams rarely have true "down" years and find a way to stay relevant every year." - Adoraz

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Re: Rankings for 2020-21

Postby billyjack » Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:11 pm

How many non-blueblood "power football conference" teams have won NCAA titles in the last 20 years? Maryland, Florida (2), Virginia... end of list

Subtract out bluebloods: UNC, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, UCLA (0), Indiana (0).

Leaves us with titles from Maryland (2002), Florida (2006, 2007), and Virginia (2019)...

The rest of the championships come from the Big East-- Syracuse 03, UConn 04, 11, 14, and Villanova 16 18... Louisville Big East but vacated.

It could be that the only non-bluebloods with the best chance at a title are located in the Big East.
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Re: Rankings for 2020-21

Postby billyjack » Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:24 pm

I mean, if you're a non-blueblood power conference football school, you could be cowering under your desk, wondering if you have *any* chance at a championship... is Virginia's title just a freak lucky break? It'd been 12 years since Florida winning, and Billy Donovan is gone.

In 20 years, zero teams from the Pac-12 nor Big Ten have won a championship.

The Big Ten has had 1 championship since 1989, and it was 20 years ago.

The Big-12 has had 1 championship since 1988, and it was 12 years ago.

The Pac-12 has had 2 championships since 1975, and the last was 23 years ago.

Those 3 conferences make up 36 power football schools.

The SEC has had 3 different schools win since what, ever? Kentucky, Arkansas (94), Florida (06, 07). That leaves 11 SEC schools that have won squat.
.
So take the PAC, B1G, XII, and SEC... 50 schools...

Subtract out the 4 total bluebloods... UCLA, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky... so 46 schools...

Subtract out the 5 other winners over the past 50 years... Florida, Maryland, Arkansas, Michigan State, Michigan (undeserved 89)... (and UNLV)... leaves us with 41 schools in the last 50+ years, from power football conferences, that haven't won the big one. Five freakin schools... the Big East has 4 different champions out of our 11 schools.

So, to win, you either have to be a blueblood, be in the ACC, or be in the Big East.
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Re: Rankings for 2020-21

Postby kayako » Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:00 am

https://twitter.com/3MW_CBB/status/1241818479659036674?s=19

3 Man Weave has Nova and Creighton #1 and #2. Their podcasts are consistently good.
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Re: Rankings for 2020-21

Postby Jet915 » Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:54 am

kayako wrote:https://twitter.com/3MW_CBB/status/1241818479659036674?s=19

3 Man Weave has Nova and Creighton #1 and #2. Their podcasts are consistently good.


Pretty good but didnt talk about the Big East at all.. :?
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Re: Rankings for 2020-21

Postby ecasadoSBU » Thu Apr 02, 2020 4:24 am

billyjack wrote:I mean, if you're a non-blueblood power conference football school, you could be cowering under your desk, wondering if you have *any* chance at a championship... is Virginia's title just a freak lucky break? It'd been 12 years since Florida winning, and Billy Donovan is gone.

In 20 years, zero teams from the Pac-12 nor Big Ten have won a championship.

The Big Ten has had 1 championship since 1989, and it was 20 years ago.

The Big-12 has had 1 championship since 1988, and it was 12 years ago.

The Pac-12 has had 2 championships since 1975, and the last was 23 years ago.

Those 3 conferences make up 36 power football schools.

The SEC has had 3 different schools win since what, ever? Kentucky, Arkansas (94), Florida (06, 07). That leaves 11 SEC schools that have won squat.
.
So take the PAC, B1G, XII, and SEC... 50 schools...

Subtract out the 4 total bluebloods... UCLA, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky... so 46 schools...

Subtract out the 5 other winners over the past 50 years... Florida, Maryland, Arkansas, Michigan State, Michigan (undeserved 89)... (and UNLV)... leaves us with 41 schools in the last 50+ years, from power football conferences, that haven't won the big one. Five freakin schools... the Big East has 4 different champions out of our 11 schools.

So, to win, you either have to be a blueblood, be in the ACC, or be in the Big East.


This is the best conclusion here

Everyone talks like you have to be a member of a power-5 league to have a realistic chance at a national championship. The reality is that CBB has bee dominated by a few blue-blood schools and two leagues (ACC/Big East). Outside of that the chances are low.

Where the Power-5 FB leagues win out is in the amount of S16/E8/F4... which has a lot of monetary value even if it lacks the prestige
Last edited by ecasadoSBU on Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:51 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Rankings for 2020-21

Postby GumbyDamnit! » Thu Apr 02, 2020 8:10 am

gtmoBlue wrote:
All the various rules changes, changes to the basketball tourney, and legal challenges have incrementally led us to this point. It has been designed over these decades to favor the majors to the detriment of the rest of Div 1 schools.


So this alone could be a topic of lengthy discussion and could be dissected a thousand different ways.

If there are fundamental barriers, what are they? Is it just $? If that were the case then you should see schools like Alabama, LSU, Clemson, Auburn, Texas, OSU, etc. just dominate all college athletics. I mean they are the ones bringing in the most money and have the most capital readily available to reinvest.

Is it exposure? Butler sure didn't have any meaningful exposure on their way to back-to-back FF's. Regardless of what our Dayton visitor friends claim, Dayton is far removed from the national spotlight every year except this one. This year is more likely a flash in the pan type season but they did had a legit shot. Any success they have due to exposure this year probably won't come until 2-3 years from now.

Is it simply conference? Gonzaga has been consistently effective in a very weak conference for decades.

Is it coaching? Is Grant that good? Is it Few? Jay Wright? Rick Pitinio? Is Laetto that bad?

What say the CU Jays fans about this? You were the guys that, prior to joining the rest of us, bemoaned that no one of national importance would ever go into Omaha for an meaningful OOC game. Now you're at the table as a "have" and could easily schedule a home and home with just about anyone in the country. You have more money; you have more exposure; you're in a better conference; you're on National TV every night; Mac has rounded into form. But what has changed that has catapulted you guys from the "woe is me, no one has the guts to come play us, and just getting to the tourney is a successful season," to "we can play anyone anywhere and should be an SW16/E8 team every year."
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Re: Rankings for 2020-21

Postby adoraz » Thu Apr 02, 2020 8:33 am

Only 1 conference can be happy with both National Championships and S16-F4 appearances over the last couple decades. That conference is the ACC. Of the two, current Big East teams have excelled in Championships (second to only the ACC) but haven't done great advancing other teams. We have, however, had great regular seasons (with this past one being our best chance at multiple teams going deep).

Ask fans of any conference which they'd rather have: Championships or deep runs. The answer is obviously Championships. In all sports Championships are worth far, far more than deep runs. Multiple times more. I'd happily trade St. John's trips to the F4, E8, etc for one ring.

There is only one reason we are having this conversation, and that's because we don't have the "Power 5" label which leads to insecurity and a need to overcompensate. We don't need to prove we belong when we are average to above average amongst Power conferences in nearly everything (regular season success, tournament success, conference tournament ticket sales, recruiting, conference challenge scheduling, etc).

I'll take what our teams have done since the mid 80s over any conference not named the ACC. No need to pivot the conversation from "we have 2 teams in the top 2 for next year" to whether we can compete. Even if we went from the #2 conference to #1 you'd still have people worried that we'd get poached (teams/coaches). Even last year none of coaches were poached but the ACC and B1G lost coaches to the SEC and NBA. Just enjoy our success.
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Re: Rankings for 2020-21

Postby GumbyDamnit! » Thu Apr 02, 2020 9:31 am

adoraz wrote:Only 1 conference can be happy with both National Championships and S16-F4 appearances over the last couple decades. That conference is the ACC. Of the two, current Big East teams have excelled in Championships (second to only the ACC) but haven't done great advancing other teams. We have, however, had great regular seasons (with this past one being our best chance at multiple teams going deep).

Ask fans of any conference which they'd rather have: Championships or deep runs. The answer is obviously Championships. In all sports Championships are worth far, far more than deep runs. Multiple times more. I'd happily trade St. John's trips to the F4, E8, etc for one ring.

There is only one reason we are having this conversation, and that's because we don't have the "Power 5" label which leads to insecurity and a need to overcompensate. We don't need to prove we belong when we are average to above average amongst Power conferences in nearly everything (regular season success, tournament success, conference tournament ticket sales, recruiting, conference challenge scheduling, etc).

I'll take what our teams have done since the mid 80s over any conference not named the ACC. No need to pivot the conversation from "we have 2 teams in the top 2 for next year" to whether we can compete. Even if we went from the #2 conference to #1 you'd still have people worried that we'd get poached (teams/coaches). Even last year none of coaches were poached but the ACC and B1G lost coaches to the SEC and NBA. Just enjoy our success.


Boom! Spot on Adoraz.
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