NET rankings

[kayako]

7 Butler despite losing to DePaul
12 Seton Hall fell despite winning @SJU
17 Nova climbed 3 spots despite an unimpressive win at home
30 Marquette
33 Creighton
51 DePaul
52 Georgetown
68 Xavier
76 SJU
80 Providence

[GumbyDamnit!]

I'm just going to beat a dead horse even deader about this NET thing. And I'm going to focus on 4 teams--two from the Pac 12 and 2 from the BE.

Arizona (net 9)
Q1 1-4
Q2 2-1
- all 3 wins came on their home floor vs: 26, 31, 63

Stanford (net 16)
Q1 1-2
Q2 2-1
- not 1 Q1/Q2 win away from home

Marquette (net 27)
Q1 3-4
Q2 4-0
- all of their 4 losses came in away games; do have a single Q3 conf loss at home by 1 to PC
- but they have 4 Q1/Q2 wins that have come away from home

Creighton (net 28)
Q1 5-5
Q2 1-0
- 4/5 Q1 losses were away games; but 4/5 Q1 wins were also away from Omaha, as well as the lone Q1 game


Am I just a biased homer here? I mean isn't the cornerstone of the selection committee always been that teams have to prove they can beat good teams, especially on the road? WTF is going on here?

Arizona challenged themselves with 8 Q1/Q2 games so far, 4 at home. And they stand at 3-5 in those games. Both CU and MU, IMO, challenged themselves far more and had to figure out how to win some games on the road (which both have done). Yet they stand considerably lower than a team like Arizona (and Stanford). I don't want to hear about MOV's, because when you look, that doesn't explain it away. CU has won 3 Q1 games by 10+ Marq has 5 Q1/Q2 wins by 10+.

I do not like the fact that these NET #'s are being kept from public view. Something about their formula smells really bad. No one can tell me that Arizona's resume' is the 9th best in the land--especially when you compare it to these two teams in our own conference.

I need a pitchfork and torch. Who's with me? Git? C'mon, this is right up your alley. It smells of power conference privilege. The Man is still trying to keep your Omaha Jays down...

[stever20]

SOS
Arizona 8 20 OOC
Stanford 111 171 OOC
Marquette 40 133 OOC
Creighton 39 142 OOC

Arizona 4 Q1 games all top 20 opponents.
Creighton 8 Q1 games- 3 are top 15, but then 26,31,36,55,57,60,62

In RPI right now Arizona is 20 to 26 for Creighton. Marquette is 29 right now.

Also for Marquette- one major problem they have is they have 4 losses by 10+ points right now. That kills any benefit of those 10+ point wins. They also have a 4 point Q4 win. So net +1
For Creighton they have 3 losses by 10+ points right now. So net 0
Arizona only has 1 loss by 10+ points plus 3 Q1/Q2 wins by 10+. So net +2
Stanford has only 1 loss by 10+ points plus 2 Q1/Q2 wins by 10+. So net +1

[redmen9194]

As of this morning, all ten Big East schools in the top 75.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

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This one’s for billyjack

PC is taking a wrecking ball to the league. It wouldn't be so bad if they were in better position to get a bid themselves, but right now they're killing us.

NCAA MEN'S BASKETBALL NET RANKINGS – NCAA.com

For those of you who are unaware, the NET Rankings on the NCAA’s webpage are sortable. You can click on ‘Conference’ on the webpage header line to display the NET Rankings with each team in a given conference grouped together. I’m posting this morning’s NET Rankings to demonstrate to support the seven observations posted below.
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NET Rankings - Through Games Feb. 01 2020

1 San Diego St. • Mountain West • 22-0
3 Gonzaga • WCC • 23-1
5 Dayton • Atlantic 10 • 20-2

12 Butler • Big East
13 Villanova • Big East
14 Creighton • Big East
17 Seton Hall • Big East
25 Marquette • Big East
47 Xavier • Big East
51 Georgetown • Big East
59 DePaul • Big East
64 Providence • Big East
73 St. John's • Big East

The 10 ACC teams with NET Rankings worse than #64 Providence

65 Notre Dame • ACC
66 Syracuse • ACC
69 NC State • ACC
78 Pittsburgh • ACC
89 Georgia Tech • ACC
96 Clemson • ACC
97 North Carolina • ACC
104 Miami (FL) • ACC
107 Wake Forest • ACC
147 Boston College • ACC

The 4 Big 12 teams with NET Rankings worse than #64 Providence

67 TCU • Big 12
76 Iowa St. • Big 12
77 Kansas St. • Big 12
84 Oklahoma St. • Big 12

The 2 Big Ten teams with NET Rankings worse than #64 Providence

150 Northwestern • Big Ten
169 Nebraska • Big Ten

The 5 Pac-12 teams with NET Rankings worse than #64 Providence

74 Utah • Pac-12
79 Oregon St. • Pac-12
109 Washington St. • Pac-12
116 UCLA • Pac-12
146 California • Pac-12

The 7 SEC teams with NET Rankings worse than #64 Providence

70 Tennessee • SEC
75 South Carolina • SEC
90 Georgia • SEC
95 Missouri • SEC
110 Ole Miss • SEC
139 Texas A&M • SEC
167 Vanderbilt • SEC
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The 7 AAC teams with NET Rankings worse than #64 Providence

72 SMU • AAC
86 UConn • AAC
103 Temple • AAC
120 South Fla. • AAC
121 UCF • AAC
171 Tulane • AAC
227 East Carolina • AAC

The 10 Atlantic 10 teams with NET Rankings worse than #64 Providence

68 Saint Louis • Atlantic 10
88 Duquesne • Atlantic 10
98 Davidson • Atlantic 10
126 St. Bonaventure • Atlantic 10
168 La Salle • Atlantic 10
179 Massachusetts • Atlantic 10
180 George Mason • Atlantic 10
198 George Washington • Atlantic 10
222 Saint Joseph's • Atlantic 10
273 Fordham • Atlantic 10
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Seven Observations:

1. Providence has a better NET Ranking than 28 teams in the P5 football conferences.

2. Providence has a better NET Ranking than 17 teams in the American and Atlantic 10 conferences.

3. Three of the Top 5 teams in the NET Rankings are members of mid-major conferences, and all three teams have won 20 or more games as of February 1st. It is my considered opinion that this would NOT be the case if any of these three teams were members of the Big East conference.

This league is tough.

4. Quite possibly the understatement of the year.

5. While it has generally been assumed up until now that Dayton would jump at the opportunity to join the Big East conference, today’s NET Rankings will give the UD administration and athletic department a lot to think about. If Dayton or Gonzaga were members of the Big East Conference this season, it is quite likely that: (a) they would have lost BE conference games by February 1st, (b) they would have worse NET Rankings than they presently enjoy, and (c) they would not be ranked as high in the AP Poll.

6. Item 5 above should end any discussion about Gonzaga joining the Big East in the future, as it can be seen that Gonzaga is clearly better off being the big fish in the WCC. The same logic could also be applied to the Dayton Flyers, who could be better off being the big fish in the Atlantic 10, despite its mid-major status. There are no easy conference games in the Big East, which is great for fans, but not so great for the BE coaches, who have to live with the consequences of having no poor teams in the conference.

7. If Providence were in the Atlantic 10 this season, the Friars would likely be a Top 3 team in the conference and cruising toward an At-large bid in the 2020 NCAA Tournament. Such is the difference in the top-to-bottom quality of the Big East and Atlantic 10.

[kayako]

5. While it has generally been assumed up until now that Dayton would jump at the opportunity to join the Big East conference, today’s NET Rankings will give the UD administration and athletic department a lot to think about. If Dayton or Gonzaga were members of the Big East Conference this season, it is quite likely that: (a) they would have lost BE conference games by February 1st, (b) they would have worse NET Rankings than they presently enjoy, and (c) they would not be ranked as high in the AP Poll.

6. Item 5 above should end any discussion about Gonzaga joining the Big East in the future, as it can be seen that Gonzaga is clearly better off being the big fish in the WCC. The same logic could also be applied to the Dayton Flyers, who could be better off being the big fish in the Atlantic 10, despite its mid-major status. There are no easy conference games in the Big East, which is great for fans, but not so great for the BE coaches, who have to live with the consequences of having no poor teams in the conference.

7. If Providence were in the Atlantic 10 this season, the Friars would likely be a Top 3 team in the conference and cruising toward an At-large bid in the 2020 NCAA Tournament. Such is the difference in the top-to-bottom quality of the Big East and Atlantic 10.

Being the cream of the crop in a mid-major conference has its advantages. I've argued that Gonzaga probably has no interest in joining the BE, or even a scheduling alliance as suggested by some. Why would they, when they can cherry pick the teams they want to play in OOC to balance out their weak WCC slate? But same logic can not be applied to Dayton, yet. Only if AG guides them to a multi-year domination of A10, which is imo harder than what Gonzaga did in their conference.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

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Reply to kayako's post above … on the Dayton Thread

You’re right kayako. In fact, you’re probably more ‘right’ than you realize, so I’ll skip to the Bottom Line:

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NET Rankings - Through Games Feb. 04 2020

12 Butler • Big East
13 Villanova • Big East
14 Creighton • Big East
19 Seton Hall • Big East
25 Marquette • Big East
44 Xavier • Big East
48 Georgetown • Big East
65 Providence • Big East
67 DePaul • Big East
76 St. John's • Big East

A comparison of the numbers above with the Big East's Net Rankings on February 1, 2020 shows that the NET rankings are far less volatile in early February than the RPI rankings, which was one of the objectives of the Top Secret NET Formula. That's very good, because in a well-designed rankings system, a team should not be penalized for losing a 'close' away game to a better team, nor should they be penalized for playing and blowing out an inferior team.

In the AP Poll, you generally drop in the rankings when you lose a game - even when it's a game you're supposed to lose.

In the RPI Rankings, an inferior team can shoot up in the rankings simply by getting blown out by a much superior team (because the improvement in the inferior team's SOS more than outweighs the effect of losing the game). That is another problem that has been dealt with by incorporating win margin and efficiencies in the Top Secret NET Formula.

And finally, yes stever, I know you can likely find some exceptions to the generalizations I posted above, but it is not necessary to post them all and play your 'King of the World' card. And yes stever, I did read your post criticizing me putting for a line break in previous listings of NET Rankings, so on this post, I squashed all 10 Big East teams together in a single block of text to save you the bother of typing that particular banality again.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

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DATA SET #1: One-day Volatility of NET Rankings: February 4 and 5, 2020

NET Rankings - Through Games Feb. 04 2020:

12 Butler
13 Villanova
14 Creighton
19 Seton Hall
25 Marquette
44 Xavier
48 Georgetown
65 Providence
67 DePaul
76 St. John's

Games Played on February 4, 2020:

...... @ Georgetown: Seton Hall 78, Georgetown 71
...... @ Providence: Providence 73, Creighton 56
...... @ Butler: Butler 79, Villanova 76

NET Rankings - Through Games Feb. 05 2020:

11 Butler
13 Seton Hall
15 Villanova
22 Creighton
23 Marquette
45 Xavier
52 Georgetown
55 Providence
67 DePaul
73 St. John's

Extrema: Seton Hall +6 , Creighton -8

Subject to Moderator approval, it is my intention to submit posts similar to this once every two weeks. Then, shortly before Selection Sunday in March, I will compile all of the DATA SETS in a single post and see if any conclusions or inferences can be drawn concerning One-day volatility as the Net Rankings progress from early February until mid-March from analysis of the posted DATA SETS.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Tough night for Tulsa. Already with a fragile profile at best, they lose to our buddies from Storrs on their home floor by 16. Dropped 16 spots in Net. Now below St Johns. Also Wich St loses at home as well to the Bearcats. They drop 6, and Cindy only jumps 2. I guess it wasn’t that much of a quality road win to only jump 2 spots.

[stever20]

Tough night for Tulsa. Already with a fragile profile at best, they lose to our buddies from Storrs on their home floor by 16. Dropped 16 spots in Net. Now below St Johns. Also Wich St loses at home as well to the Bearcats. They drop 6, and Cindy only jumps 2. I guess it wasn’t that much of a quality road win to only jump 2 spots.

still a Q1 win, which Cincy needed...

UConn got in the top 75 which will help some teams out conversely.