UConn 2020 Discussion - The Thread By AAC Fan Sam Elliott...

[Edrick]

As has been for the better part of the last decade, no team not named UConn has a nonzero chance of getting an invitation to the Big East, maybe ever, certainly the next generation or so

[NJRedman]

VCU, Wichita State, etc. just don't scream Big East to me.

My single biggest issue with VCU is that Virginia is solidly ACC-land and VCU is a definite little brother in-state to UVA/VT.

Agreed on Saint Louis as the potential (though possibly perpetual) Next School Up. The school, the facilities, etc have all been discussed. However, as not only a geographic border city on the fringes of the current Big East footprint while State U is a couple hour drive away, but also a border city between conferences where Illinois is in the B1G while Missouri is in the SEC but still has something of a leftover Big 12 vibe about then, they probably have the best chance out of the usual suspects to carve out their own identity without living in State U's shadow.

And the mid-west is solidly B1G land and we are almost all little brothers to the big FB schools nearby.

[Bogg]

And the mid-west is solidly B1G land and we are almost all little brothers to the big FB schools nearby.

I mean, technically Missouri is SEC territory now, but it doesn't feel like it. I'm not going to argue that the small private schools are going to surpass "State U" in popularity - just based on pure numbers of graduates it isn't really feasible. However, aside from Butler/Indiana, the corresponding state schools for the Big East schools aren't really "basketball schools" (even though Wisconsin and Ohio State have solid programs) and you can stack up Butler's last 10-15 years against anyone in Indiana just fine (and the Crossroads Classic is sort of an official recognition of a "Big 4" in the state). X gets plenty of recognition as a high-end basketball school, Marquette and Creighton have annual rivalry games with their in-state counterparts, and Butler has the Crossroads. DePaul even has Northwestern (not public, but a B1G program), even though that's been more of a slapfight than a big-time rivalry in recent history.

Meanwhile, VCU's been out of the first weekend ever while UVA, Duke, and UNC are winning national titles to the north and south of them. I can't imagine the Cavaliers ever giving VCU an annual rivalry game in-state. Just based on St. Louis being on a border not only between states but also between conferences, as well as the giant drop-off from the basketball programs at the Virginia/Duke/UNC trio to Mizzou/Illinois, it seems likely there's way more figurative oxygen for SLU in their respective sports ecosystem than there is for VCU.

[GoldenWarrior11]

I made this point over the summer, but - to my knowledge and research - there have been just two programs that have been scheduled OOC for true home/home series by more than one BE program. One was UConn, who is now arriving in a few month (Villanova/Georgetown); the other is SLU (Butler/Seton Hall). I don't think it was/is on accident that when those schools hosted, their attendance was higher than normal, and I don't think it's on accident that, say, Dayton/VCU is not being scheduled by anyone OOC either. Now, do these programs play BE teams in exempt tournaments? Absolutely - but that is based on luck and seeding. For home/home series, there is a deliberate attempt by athletic departments to select programs that they find value in facing (whether that is a quality opponent, a location where alumni are, a location where a good recruit is, etc.). I find it very interesting that SLU is being "selected" for for home/home series, which could (or could not) be a telling sign of the long-term thinking of the BE brain trust.

If there was any interest at all by the Big East in Dayton, they would have absolutely been scheduled intentionally by someone, anyone. They travel well, they are in close proximity and they are an institutional peer to many of our schools. Perhaps the Xavier proximity is a legitimate concern.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

I don't think it's on accident that, say, Dayton/VCU is not being scheduled by anyone OOC either.

For home/home series, there is a deliberate attempt by athletic departments to select programs that they find value in facing (whether that is a quality opponent, a location where alumni are, a location where a good recruit is, etc.).

I find it very interesting that SLU is being "selected" for for home/home series, which could (or could not) be a telling sign of the long-term thinking of the BE brain trust.

If there was any interest at all by the Big East in Dayton, they would have absolutely been scheduled intentionally by someone, anyone. They travel well, they are in close proximity and they are an institutional peer to many of our schools. Perhaps the Xavier proximity is a legitimate concern.

GoldenWarrior11 – you are making an awful lot of questionable assumptions here without a scintilla of evidence to support your supposition.

Occam's razor strongly suggests that the concept of Risk/Reward is the decisive factor in the apparently collective decision of the Big East schools.

Take Marquette, for example:

Saint Louis Billikens 2019-20 Media Guide - Saint Louis University

Page 54: ALL-TIME SERIES RESULTS: SAINT LOUIS vs. MARQUETTE

1/24/01 H • Lost 64-73
2/11/01 A • Lost 69-75
1/12/02 A • Lost 53-61
1/26/02 H • Lost 38-55
1/7/03 H • Lost 60-54
2/5/03 A • Lost 68-64
1/10/04 A • Lost 61-59
2/18/04 H • Won 58-54
1/29/05 H • Lost 51-55
3/5/05 A • Won 51-39

Dayton Flyers 2019-20 Media Guide - University of Dayton

Page 137: ALL-TIME SERIES RESULTS: DAYTON vs. MARQUETTE

Nov 28, 1998 UD Arena • Won 81-49
Dec 7, 1999 MECCA Arena • Won 63-60
Dec 30, 2000 UD Arena • Won 61-60
Dec 5, 2001 Bradley Center • Lost 51-73
Jan 4, 2003 UD Arena OT • Won 92-85
Nov 29, 2008 Sears Centre CIC • Won 89-75

2014-15: Saint Louis RPI # 273
2015-16: Saint Louis RPI # 207
2016-17: Saint Louis RPI # 247
2017-2018: Saint Louis RPI # 161
2018-2019: Saint Louis NET Ranking #103

Both Occam’s razor and I would suggest that Big East teams consider a home-and-home series with Saint Louis to have a far better risk/reward ratio than a home-and-home with either Dayton or VCU – both of whom might be capable of sweeping both games against a Big East opponent. Scheduling two games against Saint Louis is unlikely to result in two losses, and for most Big East teams, a good opportunity for two wins against Saint Louis. It’s that simple.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

I made this point over the summer, but - to my knowledge and research - there have been just two programs that have been scheduled OOC for true home/home series by more than one BE program ... the other is SLU (Butler/Seton Hall).

Butler split their series with Saint Louis, with both teams winning their home games:

… Dec. 2, 2017 @ Saint Louis: Saint Louis 75, Butler 45
… Dec. 1, 2018 @ Butler: Butler 64, Saint Louis 52

Seton Hall also split their series with Saint Louis, with both teams winning their road games:

… Nov. 18, 2018 @ Seton Hall: Saint Louis 66, Seton Hall 64
… Nov. 17, 2019 @ Saint Louis: Seton Hall 83, Saint Louis 66

The risk/reward for playing Saint Louis turned out to be not particularly good, and the risk/reward for playing a even better Atlantic 10 team (such as Dayton or VCU) would logically be even worse.

[GoldenWarrior11]

I don't think it's on accident that, say, Dayton/VCU is not being scheduled by anyone OOC either.

For home/home series, there is a deliberate attempt by athletic departments to select programs that they find value in facing (whether that is a quality opponent, a location where alumni are, a location where a good recruit is, etc.).

I find it very interesting that SLU is being "selected" for for home/home series, which could (or could not) be a telling sign of the long-term thinking of the BE brain trust.

If there was any interest at all by the Big East in Dayton, they would have absolutely been scheduled intentionally by someone, anyone. They travel well, they are in close proximity and they are an institutional peer to many of our schools. Perhaps the Xavier proximity is a legitimate concern.

GoldenWarrior11 – you are making an awful lot of questionable assumptions here without a scintilla of evidence to support your supposition.

Occam's razor strongly suggests that the concept of Risk/Reward is the decisive factor in the apparently collective decision of the Big East schools.

Take Marquette, for example:

Saint Louis Billikens 2019-20 Media Guide - Saint Louis University

Page 54: ALL-TIME SERIES RESULTS: SAINT LOUIS vs. MARQUETTE

1/24/01 H • Lost 64-73
2/11/01 A • Lost 69-75
1/12/02 A • Lost 53-61
1/26/02 H • Lost 38-55
1/7/03 H • Lost 60-54
2/5/03 A • Lost 68-64
1/10/04 A • Lost 61-59
2/18/04 H • Won 58-54
1/29/05 H • Lost 51-55
3/5/05 A • Won 51-39

Dayton Flyers 2019-20 Media Guide - University of Dayton

Page 137: ALL-TIME SERIES RESULTS: DAYTON vs. MARQUETTE

Nov 28, 1998 UD Arena • Won 81-49
Dec 7, 1999 MECCA Arena • Won 63-60
Dec 30, 2000 UD Arena • Won 61-60
Dec 5, 2001 Bradley Center • Lost 51-73
Jan 4, 2003 UD Arena OT • Won 92-85
Nov 29, 2008 Sears Centre CIC • Won 89-75

2014-15: Saint Louis RPI # 273
2015-16: Saint Louis RPI # 207
2016-17: Saint Louis RPI # 247
2017-2018: Saint Louis RPI # 161
2018-2019: Saint Louis NET Ranking #103

Both Occam’s razor and I would suggest that Big East teams consider a home-and-home series with Saint Louis to have a far better risk/reward ratio than a home-and-home with either Dayton or VCU – both of whom might be capable of sweeping both games against a Big East opponent. Scheduling two games against Saint Louis is unlikely to result in two losses, and for most Big East teams, a good opportunity for two wins against Saint Louis. It’s that simple.

Actually, quite the contrary. I am using the evidence of how and who the BE schedules to create a hypothesis as to the why. BE programs can schedule whomever they wish OOC. Take Marquette for example. We play Wisconsin annually. In the past few years, we have scheduled K-State, Georgia, and Arizona State to home/home series. For the future, we have also locked-up UCLA and Notre Dame to home/home series. Aside from the fact those programs all come from power conferences, each program offered value and benefits to MU as part of the schedule, whether that was to help with SOS or travel to a recruiting area for potential prospects. No BE program has schedule a true home/home with anyone outside the power conferences except SLU, which brings interest in and of itself. SLU is not a perennial tournament team and it has only shared a conference with Xavier long-term. Why have two programs scheduled them for true home/home series then? Why not just do a buy game.

The clear explanation is that the two BE programs had incentive and inherent value in scheduling SLU - for whatever reasons those may be. The other clear fact is that SLU is the only program outside of UConn that has been scheduled OOC for BE programs, which is interesting to say the least. Even Gonzaga, which is a Jesuit peer to many programs in the BE, has only been scheduled once with Creighton. Duequesne, which is in a former BE market in Pittsburgh, has not been scheduled at all - even as a buy game. Same goes to Dayton and VCU (who should be doing everything they can to schedule strongly OOC to boost their tournament resumes), who have not had any home/home scheduled or buy games either (although I get the ego portion of refusing to accept a buy game against a power conference opponent, although Dayton accepted a buy game at Auburn last year). VCU has also scheduled Texas as a home/home (likely due to the Shaka connection), as well as Wichita State.

One example is purely coincidental. Two examples are outside the norm. If a third program schedules SLU for a home/home, that is a clear pattern - and one worth monitoring closely as the Big East continues to grow (especially with a 20-game conference round-robin schedule). If the Big East does choose to expand to 12 down the road, they will want all the information and data to support their addition, and what better way to see a school and a program up close and personal to see their campus, their facilities, their fan support, etc.? The reality remains is that no one knows how the 20-game conference schedule will impact programs in relation to bids and/or seeds. We could see power conference teams get preferrential treatment due to their status, or those power conference teams could be negatively impacted due to the abundance of in-conference losses they could incur. Will be interesting to see for sure.

[thunderbird]

Occam's razor would simply argue BE schools see no benefit playing Dayton, while some see a benefit playing Saint Louis. This could be Risk/Reward as you mention, or simply recruiting grounds as GW11 countered.

If you're going to use philosophical principles to make an argument, at least use it correctly and not try to make it fit the narrative you want to push. The fact that you claim Risk/Reward is the decisive factor detracts from any validity to your argument. You have no knowledge as to why Seton Hall scheduled Saint Louis and it's most likely a combination of multiple factors.

Seton Hall/Butler saw a benefit playing Saint Louis. No BE schools see a benefit playing Dayton. It's that simple.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

Occam's razor would simply argue BE schools see no benefit playing Dayton ...

That's exactly what I posted above. Well done thunderbird.

[thunderbird]

You rebuked GW11 for "making an awful lot of questionable assumptions," and then make even more and claimed Occam's razor. You assumed M's record vs. SL/D (where all h/h games were played before they were even in the BE) shows risk/reward for an AD scheduling either school today. You assumed (and cherrypicked) that SH/B must've only found a prior period of 2-3 years worth of RPI as relevant when scheduling since you clearly omitted SL's 3 seasons of making the round of 32. You assumed that every BE school uses similar criteria for putting schedules together since it's "apparently [a] collective decision of the Big East schools." You assumed there is one factor ("the decisive factor") that BE schools use to schedule h/h series (so all other factors are irrelevant, or perhaps just a bonus?, and scheduling decisions are ultimately made based on that one factor). I could go on...

That is what you posted above.

What I posted, which you quoted, was BE schools see no benefit playing D, so they don't schedule them. That is the simplest assumption. And that is what Occam's razor is. NOT "Occam's razor strongly suggests that the concept of Risk/Reward is the decisive factor in the apparently collective decision of the Big East schools."

Well done Fieldhouse Flyer. You are clearly a philosopher.