Revisionist History - What if Big East had added more teams

[dakphonics]

Noticing Dayton is back in the polls, I was looking at metrics from the last 7 years to see what the conference would look like had different combinations of Wichita State, UCONN, VCU, SLU, and Dayton had been added. They weren't in our conference, so the only thing you can look at is how many quality wins they had, where they finished in KenPom compared to member schools, and how many NCAA credits they generated for their conferences. Some interesting stuff here.

UCONN:
First off, just isolating UCONN they would not have negatively drug down the conference overall outside of 2018-2019 when their RPI, KP, and other metrics were just in the gutter. The last few years they would have finished near the bottom, but metrics would suggest they were still better than at least 2 Big East teams every season except 2018-2019. Otherwise, they would have helped the conference as other teams would have benefited from their NCAA units earned during the title run in 2014-2015. UCONN would have been 3rd in NCAA units generated behind Nova and Xavier.


SAINT LOUIS:
While Saint Louis is a perfect fit in almost every way within the conference geography, filling in the footprint between Creighton and the rest of the conference, being a soccer power, and basketball only university in a large urban city. They would have been another DePaul or WORSE every season except the first year. And DePaul is the only team they bested in earned NCAA credits. If KenPom is any indication they would have finished dead last in 4 seasons out of 6. So the Big East made a good decision here passing Saint Louis and going with Creighton.


VCU and DAYTON:
Had the Big East brought these two school along to go to 12 teams instead of 10, they would have fit into the Big East just fine and would have helped the conference a lot more than hurt it. I paired them together instead of Dayton and SLU (most commonly rumored to be teams 11 and 12) but SLU ruined the numbers so I used VCU instead, and I remember VCU being rumored early on with Creighton, Xavier, Butler, SLU, Dayton etc...

The conference on average would have been stronger in KenPom and RPI every year except 17-18. And the two teams would have both finished in the top half of the conference in terms of generating NCAA credits over that span. Both teams fill their arenas last season more than 95% full on average. Dayton would have been 3rd in average attendance over that time. They certainly wouldn't have lower attendance than what they've had in the A10 but their arena isn't big enough to catch Creighton and Marquette. People who say that VCU and Dayton have nothing to add to the Big East are wrong. The only way they would have hurt the conference is if some teams in certain years played Dayton or VCU twice instead of Villanova. But the same argument could be made inversely. Some teams would have played VCU or Dayton twice instead of DePaul. Fans in the Big East often don't want to admit it for some reason... but on paper these teams have been good enough to be competitive and help the conference.


WICHITA STATE:
Was never really on the rumored or on the radar that I recall since they were public and closer to Oklahoma than Nebraska... let alone the Northeast. However it's not really that much further than Omaha for most schools flying... so why not. Wichita State would have brought a couple more units more than UCONN, a jamb packed arena, and a lot of wins. They finished in the top 10 of KenPom 2 times, and the top 25 5 times in the last 7 seasons.

GONAZGA:
I didn't look at Gonzaga the way I did the others. Obviously they'd have been a fit in every way but geography and a tremendous help to the conference, including with prestiege beyond the numbers. Everyone knows that. But I don't think they were or will ever be seriously considered, or seriously interested. The WAC, and the Summit league are the only two conferences out of 32 that exist in more than 2 time zones. Each of these conferences span only 3 timezones. Not 4. And they barely span 3. The Summit League spans from Denver to Chicago... far less than distance than Omaha to Providence. There is a reason for this.

[dakphonics]

I will also add that currently, the 10 teams in the Big East have the best average KP rating then they have had collectively at any point in conference history at 43.3, but if VCU and Dayton were in the conference right now the average KP ranking for conference teams would be 35.1!

The parity in the league right now based on KP is tied for the tightest it has ever been in any given week, and the best it has ever been from top to bottom. Conference play is going to be a grind. But the conference has gotten 6 teams in or more every year the average KP score has been better than 55 at the beginning of conference play.

[Hall2012]

It really doesn't make any sense to assume the the last 7 years for any of these schools would have played out even remotely similarly had they been in the Big East. For example, it's entirely plausible that joining the Big East would have brought a breath of life to SLU, boosting fan support, investment, recruiting etc and created a competitive team. Or perhaps Wichita State would have been overwhelmed by the brutal travel schedule and huge uptick in competitive relative to The Valley - they may not have come dead last but I highly doubt they'd have maintained their lofty kenpom ratings.

[gtmoBlue]

What if...since we're doing revisionist history, we'd added Syracuse and ND?

St Louis and St Bonaventure? Northeastern and Boston U.?

[scoscox]

this is a productive exercise that this board has never engaged in before

[Xudash]

this is a productive exercise that this board has never engaged in before

And we are so wide-open now that UCONN is joining us!

[dakphonics]

It really doesn't make any sense to assume the the last 7 years for any of these schools would have played out even remotely similarly had they been in the Big East. For example, it's entirely plausible that joining the Big East would have brought a breath of life to SLU, boosting fan support, investment, recruiting etc and created a competitive team. Or perhaps Wichita State would have been overwhelmed by the brutal travel schedule and huge uptick in competitive relative to The Valley - they may not have come dead last but I highly doubt they'd have maintained their lofty kenpom ratings.

The entire point of KP metrics Is to provide a frame of reference for a teams ability in compared to others. It’s not the AP poll which is all perception. If Wichita State would have lost some Big East games they would have still had the same players. KP would have projected more losses during the season because of the SOS. Would not have affected how good the team actually was, and the rating would have remained roughly the same.

Point taken on SLU, and more broadly that we can’t know how additions would have affected everything for everyone. But we do know how good or bad these teams were retroactively, and how good or bad they performed in the tournament when they went.

[dakphonics]

What if...since we're doing revisionist history, we'd added Syracuse and ND?

St Louis and St Bonaventure? Northeastern and Boston U.?

I already said St Louis was bad. Really bad. St Bonaventure hasn’t been that great either. But they didn’t get a look cuz they were never rumored at all and unlike every other school in the Big East, they play in a HS gym in the woods. Northeastern and Boston U? Why? I mean if we are just going to grab random little schools that play in high school gyms, and haven’t done anything notable then at least do Holy Cross who were equally unimportant the last several years and beyond. You could have picked Duquesne and Detroit Mercy. At least they are like-minded universities in Detroit and Pittsburgh. But they also aren’t serious basketball schools.

The Big East couldn’t add Syracuse and Notre Dame in 13-14 because they were leaving. The question asked was “what if the Big East had”, not “what If they add them now.” But even now, Or in the future it’s just as far fetched. If Notre Dame wanted into the Big East without question the Big East and Fox would accommodate. But their ACC deal is a little better (though not that much better). But for a lot of reasons ND Needs to have one foot on the ACC for a long time. As for other former Big East members that are in the ACC, Save for a complete collapse of how how conference media deals are structured, you can be sure these teams are never coming back. Teams like Boston College are profiting big from football in the ACC even when the team sucks. UCONN has good revenue, but they were bleeding millions as the revenue wasn’t coming close to the expenses. UCONN was in an unsustainable pattern. This isn’t a problem in the ACC, Big 10, or Big 12. There are millions left over. It’s a different world. They ain’t coming back. The teams I looked at were the only ones plausible and heavily discussed (by experts) candidates several years ago.

[Hall2012]

KP attempts to compare teams with imbalanced schedules and while it's as good as any model we have, it's still imperfect. And I don't see it as a good indicator of how a team would perform in a different conference because it can't account for factors like travel and grind of playing a quality opponent every night. For example, a 3 game road trip in the Big East can terrorize even the best teams.

[dakphonics]

KP attempts to compare teams with imbalanced schedules and while it's as good as any model we have, it's still imperfect. And I don't see it as a good indicator of how a team would perform in a different conference because it can't account for factors like travel and grind of playing a quality opponent every night. For example, a 3 game road trip in the Big East can terrorize even the best teams.

Can terrorize even the best teams and not adversely affect their overall rank.