2018-19 Bracketology Thread

[herodotus]

One thing that I think probably is mroe in play now is if Arizona St loses tonight, and Washington wins P12 tourney that Pac 12 is a 1 bid conference.....

I want this to happen in the worst way. P5 status should not translate into undeserved bids. I tell you, I won't be shocked if they end up with 3 bids. The cartel looks out for it's own.

[adoraz]

so looking at Lunardi's last 8 in/1st 8 out

Arizona St- tonight vs Oregon
Ohio St- lost to Michigan St
Temple- tonight vs Wichita St
St John's- done
Florida- beat LSU
NC State- done
TCU- done
Belmont-done
-----------------------------------------
Alabama- tonight vs Kentucky
Texas- done
Indiana- done
Clemson- done
Furman- done
Lipscomb- done
Xavier- tonight vs Villanova
UNC Greensboro- done

so Belmont is now out with A10 getting a bid theive. Best case right now for St John's- they get passed by Florida, but have VCU slotted behind them- leaving them still as last team with bye.

One thing that I think probably is mroe in play now is if Arizona St loses tonight, and Washington wins P12 tourney that Pac 12 is a 1 bid conference.....

I've been posting on Redmen for every game which team we want to win or lose, and Arizona St I was a bit conflicted on. Arizona St and Utah St are tough, since Washington and Nevada could lose the auto bid and those conferences could get anywhere from 1-3 bids. I think Utah St is in at this point but Arizona St isn't, so I'll root for Utah St (until they play Nevada) and against Arizona St.

[BEXU]

Don't count out Colorado. Everybody healthy and playing tough.

[herodotus]

Right now, Nevada is down 5 at halftime, and WVU and Kansas are tied in the first half. If WVU beats Kansas, they can certainly beat Iowa St. and steal a bid. Bid thieves usually can't make it through a major conference field, but with Huggins in charge, WVU scares me. I've had St. John's safely in, but if these go the wrong way, I'd be very nervous. Houston plays Memphis tomorrow. If Memphis gets by Houston, another bid would be in position to be stolen. It's got to be nervous city for all of the teams on the bubble.

[herodotus]

Looks like Kansas and Nevada have awakened. Bubble teams can take a deep breath!

[ecasadoSBU]

Nevada falls out. Boy I'm starting to worry about the Johnies. It's getting real close here

[kayako]

quick bid thieves update:

-A10 has most likely stolen a bid. 99%

-American has 2 teams outside the bubble in the semis. 25%
*there could be an ironic situation of an AAC thief bumping temple out of the bracket*

-Buffalo has made the MAC finals. 15%

-Oregon vs Washington in the PAC12 finals. 50%
*similar to American Oregon may bump ASU out of the bracket*

-Might as well assume that Utah State was already in the bracket, as Nevada got knocked out. 25%

-OVC may or may not have stolen a bid. 30%

[stever20]

quick bid thieves update:

-A10 has most likely stolen a bid. 99%

-American has 2 teams outside the bubble in the semis. 25%
*there could be an ironic situation of an AAC thief bumping temple out of the bracket*

-Buffalo has made the MAC finals. 15%

-Oregon vs Washington in the PAC12 finals. 50%
*similar to American Oregon may bump ASU out of the bracket*

-Might as well assume that Utah State was already in the bracket, as Nevada got knocked out. 25%

-OVC may or may not have stolen a bid. 30%

So looking-
A10- I'd say it's 100%
AAC- 9% chance according to Ken Pom that it's Memphis/Wichita tomorrow for the title. Add that to whatever game odds there would be- I'd call that closer to 40%. 50% chance that the title game will have 1 bubble burster in it.
MAC- 17% according to Ken Pom
MWC- 24% according to Ken Pom
P12- 49% according to Ken Pom

so a 0.0018% chance that we lose 4 bids today. But a fair chance to lose at least 1 today.

[stever20]

been a good day for the bubble....

If you go by Lunardi's thing- St John's is safe now. only 1 team left that could steal a bid, and St John's is currently the 3rd team in.

[stever20]

Lunardi just updated-
Villanova 5S Hartford vs Murray St, Purdue
Marquette 6 E Des Moines vs Temple/TCU, LSU
Seton Hall 9 E Columbia vs Washington, Duke
St John's 11 S FF Tulsa vs Arizona St, Maryland, Texas Tech

St John's- 2nd to last team in

Absolutely brutal for Seton Hall. No other way to say that other than that.
Decent pairing for Nova I think. Purdue rd 2 would be really interesting.
Marquette don't necessarily like getting a first 4 team as those teams have done really well in Thu/Fri games. If they can survive that, really would like them against LSU with that sideshow going on.
For St John's- a brutal road. ASU and Maryland rebound really well. And Texas Tech is really tough.