NET Rankings

[stever20]

If Creighton SID somehow thinks CU has any chance of a bid short of winning the BET, he is drinking some seriously spiked blue koolaid, in my most humble opinion.

no, GTMO took over his body for 15 minutes.

[gtmoBlue]

If Creighton SID somehow thinks CU has any chance of a bid short of winning the BET, he is drinking some seriously spiked blue koolaid, in my most humble opinion.

I was short 2 cases on this month's inventory of gtmo Special (GSOP)...we now know who lifted them.

[hoyahooligan]

Georgetown up to 71 with the win over Nova. I think we'd need to win out to make it pre big east tournament, but winning the next 4 plus 1-2 in the BET might get us in to Dayton.

[kayako]

Georgetown is at 69 now. 4 out of 5 + 1 BET make the Hoyas "likely"??

[adoraz]

I came across this YouTube video from NCAA March Madness... they surprisingly have Georgetown in.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_zSbFMiM9A

No idea how to judge Georgetown quite honestly... maybe their NET doesn't matter too much.

[hoyahooligan]

Of note the Hoyas already have 4 quadrant 1 wins with 2 more shots. That's more than a lot of bubble teams.

with the potential for Illinois to be come quadrant 1 as they're up to 79( of course providence could fall out of the top 75 losing us a quadrant 1 win)

[adoraz]

So this week was good for Johnnies and Marquette fans, but bad for everyone else.

Updated how many BE+BET wins I think each team needs to make the Tournament, as well as my odds of them reaching that number:

Marquette (#17, 12-2)- LOCK
Villanova (#28, 11-4)- LOCK
St. John's (#47, 8-7)- needs 1 more (95% odds) Trending UP
Butler (#49, 6-8)- needs 3 more (33%) DOWN
Seton Hall (#62, 7-8)- needs 2 more (33%) DOWN

BIG props to St. John's. After starting 3-5 they are now in a very strong position. They handled the toughest part of their schedule better than most anticipated.

Seton Hall and Butler are in trouble. I still think one of them will make it... just don't ask me who.

What's ironic is the magic numbers ("needs X more") I've used haven't changed at all since I started doing this a couple months ago... but if anything it is becoming tougher to predict now.

As per the Stever disclaimer, I highly doubt the magic number is off by more than 1/2 games (in either direction), but it could certainly change based on who Butler/Seton Hall beat. Also depends on whether the wins come during the BE or BET portions. I also don't consider getting to the magic number to mean 100% locks (just >50%).

Going to be a wild last couple weeks.

[stever20]

Butler really needs something away from home. If they lose vs Providence, they are in deep trouble.

Seton Hall is fascinating. They have 2 incredible wins obviously. But also a 16-11 record with 3 Q1 games left... They might need a split next week vs Marquette and Nova to have a chance in the BET.

It will be interesting with both of these if they go in front of the committee with 15 losses. I think Butler would have no chance. Seton Hall would, if they have 18 wins.

[billyjack]

(my post here was compiled before reading Stever's 3:42pm post, which i generally agree with.)

I think Seton Hall and Butler are in better shape than people think. Neither is playing that great, but then have no real disaster losses, and they have some really good underappreciated non-conf wins.

Seton Hall:
- n Grand Canyon 79.
- n Miami of Fla 88.
- at Rutgers 102.
- even n Hawaii at 188 is semi-solid.

of the 3 sucky teams they beat, only one is a total dreg.
- New Hampshire 350 (1-23), the dreg.
- Sacred Heart 242 is at least 12-16.
- Wagner 284 is at least 11-14.

and wow, seriously, 2 Top-10 wins in non-conf:
- at Maryland 21.
- n Kentucky 5.
the committee typically loves road wins and neutral wins. They typically want to include teams that can legitimately beat great teams.

There are no convenient Wake Forests or Californias or Vanderbilts that would've helped to pad their resume. Seton Hall's intangibles are so high, they could almost get in at 8-10.

I know it's already baked into their NET, but they have like two 1-pt losses, one 2-pt loss, a couple of 4-point losses, and a 5-pt loss.

Anyway, just some stream of consciousness thoughts. I think the Hall will be given a little more leeway, which is good.

[stever20]

(my post here was compiled before reading Stever's 3:42pm post, which i generally agree with.)

I think Seton Hall and Butler are in better shape than people think. Neither is playing that great, but then have no real disaster losses, and they have some really good underappreciated non-conf wins.

Seton Hall:
- n Grand Canyon 79.
- n Miami of Fla 88.
- at Rutgers 102.
- even n Hawaii at 188 is semi-solid.

of the 3 sucky teams they beat, only one is a total dreg.
- New Hampshire 350 (1-23), the dreg.
- Sacred Heart 242 is at least 12-16.
- Wagner 284 is at least 11-14.

and wow, seriously, 2 Top-10 wins in non-conf:
- at Maryland 21.
- n Kentucky 5.
the committee typically loves road wins and neutral wins. They typically want to include teams that can legitimately beat great teams.

There are no convenient Wake Forests or Californias or Vanderbilts that would've helped to pad their resume. Seton Hall's intangibles are so high, they could almost get in at 8-10.

I know it's already baked into their NET, but they have like two 1-pt losses, one 2-pt loss, a couple of 4-point losses, and a 5-pt loss.

Anyway, just some stream of consciousness thoughts. I think the Hall will be given a little more leeway, which is good.

The problem for Butler is their road results. They are 4-9 away from Hinkle. Like you said that hurts. Also, they really need Georgetown to hang top 75- otherwise only 1 Q1 win all year long.

Seton Hall's problem is their overall record. If they don't win again they have 16 wins. They absolutely need 1 more regular season win and then 1 BET win to finish at 18-14. That will get them in. But their problem is their remaining schedule is tough, very tough. Probably very few teams have 3 Q1 games remaining on their schedule.