NET Rankings

[adoraz]

some of your numbers I think are really off....
Butler- you say needs 4 to include BET. I'm sorry but Butler going 3-3 the rest of the way, and then 1-1 in the BET- would be 18-15. I don't think there's a chance in hell that they would get in the tourney with that record.
Seton Hall- you say 4 to include BET. If Seton Hall goes 3-4 the rest of the way, and then 1-1 in the BET- would be 18-14. They would be possible due to the 2 good wins. But that would be 50/50 at best.

Also would say for Butler and Creighton- they not only need wins, but they need to pick up Q1 wins.

Your fixation on overall record is weird, especially without factoring in the state of the bubble. Also notice that adoraz did not say "lock" with those numbers. They're reasonable. Of course Nova or Marquette being one of those wins is a game changer, but that's not what this discussion is about. You're taking the worst possible outcome you can think of and trying to create and argument.

Seton Hall winning 3 more includes at least 1 more Q1 win, and calling non-home wins over Kentucky and Maryland just "good" is a joke on your part.

Thanks, he is fixated on record since he's a fan of the AAC. Those bubble teams will need to use record as a major selling point for their resumes, as they won't get credit for beating teams like ECU.

Anyways...

My updated odds on how many BE+BET wins I think each team needs to make the Tournament, as well as my odds of them reaching that number:

Villanova (#19, 11-1)- LOCK
Marquette (#20, 10-2)- LOCK
St. John's (#49, 6-6)- needs 3* more (75% odds)** Trending UP
Butler (#54, 5-7)- needs 4* more (45%)** DOWN
Creighton (#59, 4-8)- needs 6* more (8%)** DOWN
Seton Hall (#61, 6-6)- needs 3* more (75%)** UP

I eliminated Providence and Georgetown as they're pretty much out at this point (and never were on the bubble). Creighton is heading into dangerous territory, but St. John's and Seton Hall are starting to solidify themselves as Tournament teams.

Stever disclaimer:
*This number may not be accurate and is not a 100% lock. Win requirement could vary based on how many of the wins are allocated during the BE and BET portions. Win requirement could also vary based on Q1 wins, the bubble, if a committee member is out sick on Selection Sunday, and a million other factors.
**This number may not be accurate and I did not spend hours evaluating everybody's remaining schedules. Vegas may not approve.

Hopefully that does the trick.

[marquette]

So maybe I'm being dumb but I thought we came into conference play as the 5th ranked NET conference. I just checked warren nolan and we are 4. Is that right? Can conferences move up after OOC is concluded?

[stever20]

So maybe I'm being dumb but I thought we came into conference play as the 5th ranked NET conference. I just checked warren nolan and we are 4. Is that right? Can conferences move up after OOC is concluded?

of course they can. OOC teams have their conference schedules that impact their ratings.....

Also, it's really close with the ACC. As of Friday's action-
BE 61.00
ACC 61.06

so just 1 rating point either way.....

[scoscox]

Creighton is heading into dangerous territory, but St. John's and Seton Hall are starting to solidify themselves as Tournament teams.

Creighton is definitely already in dangerous territory

[kayako]

So maybe I'm being dumb but I thought we came into conference play as the 5th ranked NET conference. I just checked warren nolan and we are 4. Is that right? Can conferences move up after OOC is concluded?

Maybe B12 vs SEC somehow hurt the ACC.

[adoraz]

Updated how many BE+BET wins I think each team needs to make the Tournament, as well as my odds of them reaching that number:

Marquette (#19, 10-2)- LOCK
Villanova (#20, 11-2)- LOCK
St. John's (#46, 7-6)- needs 2 more (90% odds) Trending UP
Butler (#49, 6-7)- needs 3 more (45%) UP
Seton Hall (#60, 7-6)- needs 2 more (80%) UP

Creighton is out, but massive weekend for St. John's, Butler, and Seton Hall. The St. John's vs Seton Hall game on Saturday may clinch an at large for whoever wins.

Since we only have a few games left, for the odds I did quickly glance at the remaining schedules. Not an accurate number by any means as I didn't calculate anything, but more accurate than previously.

[stever20]

Updated how many BE+BET wins I think each team needs to make the Tournament, as well as my odds of them reaching that number:

Marquette (#19, 10-2)- LOCK
Villanova (#20, 11-2)- LOCK
St. John's (#46, 7-6)- needs 2 more (90% odds) Trending UP
Butler (#49, 6-7)- needs 3 more (45%) UP
Seton Hall (#60, 7-6)- needs 2 more (80%) UP

Creighton is out, but massive weekend for St. John's, Butler, and Seton Hall. The St. John's vs Seton Hall game on Saturday may clinch an at large for whoever wins.

Since we only have a few games left, for the odds I did quickly glance at the remaining schedules. Not an accurate number by any means as I didn't calculate anything, but more accurate than previously.

like I said on the other thread, Butler may need a 4th win if they don't beat Marquette or Nova. Their other numbers are not good....
right now 2-6 Q1 games(with 1 being home win vs #30 Ole Miss- so that could easily slip). 2-6 road record.

[stever20]

big team this week IMO is Creighton. they are at #63 today. They play @ 100 DePaul and host #80 Georgetown. They might be at a position where if they lose both of those, they fall out of the top 75. If they did that- that'd cost Marquette, Nova, St John's, and Seton Hall Q1 wins.

They might need to go 3-2 rest of the way to remain top 75. Have left after those 2 games- @ Marquette, Providence and DePaul.

[Omaha1]

From Creighton’s SID:

Yesterday was a big day for Creighton's NET rating.

The Jays jumped from 62 to 54, picked up a Quadrant 2 victory for winning at DePaul, and its road wins over Providence & Georgetown moved to Quadrant 1 wins thanks to the Friars win vs. St. John's and the Hoyas win vs. Nova.

[cu blujs]

If Creighton SID somehow thinks CU has any chance of a bid short of winning the BET, he is drinking some seriously spiked blue koolaid, in my most humble opinion.