Curious to see what non-SJ fans think

[adoraz]

I love how you think going 12-0 OOC won't keep you out of the tournament.

Sorry, but a Big East team that goes 21-10 should be an absolute no brainer in making the tourney. Therefore your OOC could easily keep you out of the tourney. If you can't go 9-9 in conference play and make the tourney, your OOC kept you out of the tourney. This would be 2nd time in 6 years that St John's would miss the tourney due to OOC, they did also in 2014....

Statmaster, I've explained this to you. Look at the margins during their non-cupcake OOC games. Nearly every game they won by 1-3 points and required massive comebacks. They should've lost to VCU, and 1-2 others. In fact, if you go back to ~5 minutes remaining in each game and redid the OOC (based on ESPN's win probability), there was a one in several hundreds odds they would've went 12-0.

They got lucky, period, and finished with a great NET rating. Sure, it is possible that they could've done better with a better OOC slate, thus requiring 8 BE wins rather than 9 or 10, but if you watched how they played the first 8 games that's extremely unlikely. Most likely they would be far worse off now now. You yourself even thought they looked awful and just got lucky. I rather talk about "probables" rather than "possibilities". We could've scheduled 12 blue bloods away, went 12-0, and only needed 4 BE wins... right? Sure, but it doesn't work that way.

...

But you know what? Forget what I just said. It's not relevant to the topic and I will not revisit it further. Even if you believe the OOC could keep them out, Chris and his staff put together the OOC schedule. They deserve full blame if it keeps them out of the Tournament. They deserve full blame if they don't make the Tournament, no matter what the reason is. You actually just further validated my point, so thank you.

[stever20]

I love how you think going 12-0 OOC won't keep you out of the tournament.

Sorry, but a Big East team that goes 21-10 should be an absolute no brainer in making the tourney. Therefore your OOC could easily keep you out of the tourney. If you can't go 9-9 in conference play and make the tourney, your OOC kept you out of the tourney. This would be 2nd time in 6 years that St John's would miss the tourney due to OOC, they did also in 2014....

Statmaster, I've explained this to you. Look at the margins during their non-cupcake OOC games. Nearly every game they won by 1-3 points and required massive comebacks. They should've lost to VCU, and 1-2 others. In fact, if you go back to ~5 minutes remaining in each game and redid the OOC (based on ESPN's win probability), there was a one in several hundreds odds they would've went 12-0.

They got lucky, period, and finished with a great NET rating. Sure, it is possible that they could've done better with a better OOC slate, thus requiring 8 BE wins rather than 9 or 10, but if you watched how they played the first 8 games that's extremely unlikely. Most likely they would be far worse off now now. You yourself even thought they looked awful and just got lucky. I rather talk about "probables" rather than "possibilities". We could've scheduled 12 blue bloods away, went 12-0, and only needed 4 BE wins... right? Sure, but it doesn't work that way.

...

But you know what? Forget what I just said. It's not relevant to the topic and I will not revisit it further. Even if you believe the OOC could keep them out, Chris and his staff put together the OOC schedule. They deserve full blame if it keeps them out of the Tournament. You actually just proved my point, so thank you.

I 1000% agree with you on the final point. The coaching staff is 100% responsible for the OOC schedule. If it keeps them out of the tourney as a result, they absolutely should get blamed for it. It would be no one but their own fault for not making the tourney. They absolutely with this roster should make the tourney.

[NJRedman]

I was just wondering...what do you non-SJ fans think of our coaching situation? If we fail to make the tourney, do you think Mullin should resign or be fired? The consensus with our fans was that there's way too much talent/experience to not make the tourney this year.

Dude, just STFU! For real, shut...the...f***...UP!!!!

[NJRedman]

You guys know we are in in every mock bracket right? The Pac and A-10 stink and you got to find 68 teams somewhere right? I guess losing on the road to Butler and Nova are horrible things to happen right?

[MUBoxer]

I love how you think going 12-0 OOC won't keep you out of the tournament.

Sorry, but a Big East team that goes 21-10 should be an absolute no brainer in making the tourney. Therefore your OOC could easily keep you out of the tourney. If you can't go 9-9 in conference play and make the tourney, your OOC kept you out of the tourney. This would be 2nd time in 6 years that St John's would miss the tourney due to OOC, they did also in 2014....

Statmaster, I've explained this to you. Look at the margins during their non-cupcake OOC games. Nearly every game they won by 1-3 points and required massive comebacks. They should've lost to VCU, and 1-2 others. In fact, if you go back to ~5 minutes remaining in each game and redid the OOC (based on ESPN's win probability), there was a one in several hundreds odds they would've went 12-0.

They got lucky, period, and finished with a great NET rating. Sure, it is possible that they could've done better with a better OOC slate, thus requiring 8 BE wins rather than 9 or 10, but if you watched how they played the first 8 games that's extremely unlikely. Most likely they would be far worse off now now. You yourself even thought they looked awful and just got lucky. I rather talk about "probables" rather than "possibilities". We could've scheduled 12 blue bloods away, went 12-0, and only needed 4 BE wins... right? Sure, but it doesn't work that way.

...

But you know what? Forget what I just said. It's not relevant to the topic and I will not revisit it further. Even if you believe the OOC could keep them out, Chris and his staff put together the OOC schedule. They deserve full blame if it keeps them out of the Tournament. They deserve full blame if they don't make the Tournament, no matter what the reason is. You actually just further validated my point, so thank you.

Just speaking to your first point. SJU was favored in every single game during the non con. You can twist stats to say "we beat the odds with X amount of time left" but quite honestly the reason you were there was because you weren't performing well in the first place (something we at MU have done too only we played decent teams). I don't pretend to know the odds of going 12-0 but I know that kenpom and vegas both had you favored in every game so don't try to make it out like you guys beat the odds when it was just poor play please.

[adoraz]

You guys know we are in in every mock bracket right? The Pac and A-10 stink and you got to find 68 teams somewhere right? I guess losing on the road to Butler and Nova are horrible things to happen right?

Yes, I think we make it at 9-9 (0-2 BET/Duke) given that our NET is 40 with a sub .500 (3-4) BE record. Any talk about our OOC keeping us out is illogical. Stever is just holding onto his SOS talking point from ~9 months ago, which undervalues the significance of going 12-0 and teams like VCU/GT/BG doing better than expected. It's a dumb argument and he's just holding a grudge. Stever, it's fine to be wrong lol.

I actually think we could make it at 8-10 with a BET win.

I'm just not very confident we get 6 more BE wins. I think we overperformed OOC and will underperform in BE play, like last year. If we win vs Georgetown, then I'd feel better.

[adoraz]

Just speaking to your first point. SJU was favored in every single game during the non con. You can twist stats to say "we beat the odds with X amount of time left" but quite honestly the reason you were there was because you weren't performing well in the first place (something we at MU have done too only we played decent teams). I don't pretend to know the odds of going 12-0 but I know that kenpom and vegas both had you favored in every game so don't try to make it out like you guys beat the odds when it was just poor play please.

You are correct about us being favored every game, but that's not how stats work. We were definitely not projected to go 12-0.

Let's say a team is favored to win 51%-49% every game during a 12 game stretch. The most likely outcome is they go 6-6 (or, 7-5) rather than 12-0. 12-0 would be extremely unlikely.

Yes, we were favored in every OOC game, but a few of them we were only favored by 1-3 points. That means we had roughly 55% odds of winning some nights.

Let's say on average we were favored to win by 80% (I think this is being generous), that'd mean the odds of us going 12-0 would be 9.6%, with the most likely outcome being us going 10-2.

It was a major accomplishment no matter how you look at it.

[stever20]

You guys know we are in in every mock bracket right? The Pac and A-10 stink and you got to find 68 teams somewhere right? I guess losing on the road to Butler and Nova are horrible things to happen right?

Yes, I think we make it at 9-9 (0-2 BET/Duke) given that our NET is 40 with a sub .500 (3-4) BE record. Any talk about our OOC keeping us out is illogical. Stever is just holding onto his SOS talking point from ~9 months ago, which undervalues the significance of going 12-0 and teams like VCU/GT/BG doing better than expected. It's a dumb argument and he's just holding a grudge. Stever, it's fine to be wrong lol.

I actually think we could make it at 8-10 with a BET win.

I'm just not very confident we get 6 more BE wins. I think we overperformed OOC and will underperform in BE play, like last year. If we win vs Georgetown, then I'd feel better.

Going 9-9 + 0-2 would mean going the rest of the way 6-7. It would be mighty darn close. NET would be between 45-50.

And you say 8-10 could get them in with a BET win- that would mean going 5-6 in conference play, 0-1 vs Duke, and then 1-1 in BET. That would be 6-8. I sure don't see that in the least.... The NET would be worse than 50.

St John's needs VCU to keep winning. That needs to be a tier 1 win for them. Rutgers and Georgia Tech are key teams also.

I still think St John's needs 10 wins from Big East, Duke, and BET. 9 wins and they are 21-11 or 21-12 and with a OOC SOS around 200, that's going to be rough.

[adoraz]

You guys know we are in in every mock bracket right? The Pac and A-10 stink and you got to find 68 teams somewhere right? I guess losing on the road to Butler and Nova are horrible things to happen right?

Yes, I think we make it at 9-9 (0-2 BET/Duke) given that our NET is 40 with a sub .500 (3-4) BE record. Any talk about our OOC keeping us out is illogical. Stever is just holding onto his SOS talking point from ~9 months ago, which undervalues the significance of going 12-0 and teams like VCU/GT/BG doing better than expected. It's a dumb argument and he's just holding a grudge. Stever, it's fine to be wrong lol.

I actually think we could make it at 8-10 with a BET win.

I'm just not very confident we get 6 more BE wins. I think we overperformed OOC and will underperform in BE play, like last year. If we win vs Georgetown, then I'd feel better.

Going 9-9 + 0-2 would mean going the rest of the way 6-7. It would be mighty darn close. NET would be between 45-50.

And you say 8-10 could get them in with a BET win- that would mean going 5-6 in conference play, 0-1 vs Duke, and then 1-1 in BET. That would be 6-8. I sure don't see that in the least.... The NET would be worse than 50.

St John's needs VCU to keep winning. That needs to be a tier 1 win for them. Rutgers and Georgia Tech are key teams also.

I still think St John's needs 10 wins from Big East, Duke, and BET. 9 wins and they are 21-11 or 21-12 and with a OOC SOS around 200, that's going to be rough.

That's fair, again I never said 9-9 would be a lock, just that I think they'd have a >50% chance (I'd say 80%) at making it if they get to 9 BE wins.

Regardless, I rather save that talk for the NET thread. Mullin is responsible for the OOC, so even with your (and a few others) pessimistic view regarding it, I don't want to see anybody use it as an excuse for us not making it. Whether we make the Tournament or not, the staff needs to be given credit or held responsible.

Depending on whether we beat Georgetown, this thread will either heat up or disappear. It's probably a bit premature for now, so I'll hold off on saying anything further until Sunday.

[stever20]

I don't think 9-9 with losses to Duke and BET- gets you anywere near 80% chance of getting in. Especially given the BET loss is going to be considered a home loss....

As far as your point on the OOC shouldn't be considered as an excuse, it definitely can be used as an excuse- but the person who is at fault is clearly Mullin. If St John's wins 21 games and misses the tourney, the focus is going to be 100% on the OOC schedule. And I think you know it.

One thing to remember also this year- we have a much better shot of bid thieves than before. Buffalo is in most likely regardless of the MAC tourney. Gonzaga is in regardless of WCC tourney. Nevada in the MWC. That could quickly limit things.