UConn Smoke

[GoldenWarrior11]

Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.

It's amazing that so many forget the legacy of Big East Football. Big East Football was created with the intent to maximize value and opportunity for schools to eventually position themselves an invitation to a major conference. The league established a separate entity - Big East Football - it began a collision course of inevitable implosion. Big East Football led to a constant state of instability, tension and paranoia which ultimately positioned itself as a prime organ donor to the ACC (as well as B1G and Big 12). Big East Football - whether via additions of Rutgers, Miami, Virginia Tech, West Virginia and Temple; or UConn, Louisville, Cincinnati and USF; or TCU, Boise State and San Diego State; or UCF, Houston, Memphis, SMU, Tulane, ECU and Temple (again) - was always a combination of mismatched schools, banding together in order to maximize value and position itself for a power league invitation.

The American has without question inherited Big East Football's self-preservational mindset. For schools like Cincinnati, UConn and USF, they did not choose to be in a league with UCF, Houston, Memphis, SMU, Tulane, ECU and Temple (much like Boston College/Syracuse/Pittsburgh did not choose to be in a league with Miami/Virginia Tech/West Virginia/Temple/Rutgers); they had to in order to survive. Look at what happen to the Big East in 2003, the Big East in 2011, and to the AAC in 2016 and now again in 2018. Being in the "best of the rest" conference forces members into continued uncertainty, volatility and insecurity, which always brings negative value to the league. In every case, schools and fans expect to finally be embraced as "one of the gang", see a payout that is higher and comparable to the other major conferences, and bring an end to the long-standing suffering from being in such a league. History says that will sadly not be the case. Even with rumors of the "Fortunate 5" getting a higher pay-out than the rest, the division within the American is clear - and it has revealed the cracked foundation for which the league was built-on in 2013 (but with the same fractured pieces of Big East Football).

If realignment history has taught us anything, it is that a select few from the AAC (top football programs) will likely be grabbed for one or two spots in a true power conference, and the rest will be left behind fighting with one another, scrambling and maneuvering to position themselves for, once again, another go-around down the road.

[adoraz]

I think the UConn "smoke" is one minor report (AAC television negotiations may be easier with GOR) + one minor comment (Val's comment about how a 20-game double-round robin would mean an 11th team and something they'd consider) and then people's imaginations running amok.

Somehow the fact that because UCF/Memphis/Cincinnati/Houston could be future Big XII targets, the AAC might need to entice them to sign the GOR, and it happening when UConn football just went 1-12, morphed into "The AAC wants to make UConn a second class citizen by paying them less."


The AAC Commish downplayed a ton of the smoke in an article today:
https://www.ctpost.com/sports/jeffjacob ... 458583.php

“The report wasn’t accurate in key areas,” American commissioner Mike Aresco said Tuesday. “We haven’t asked our schools for anything at this point. We’re in the preliminary stages of important negotiation. Our formal period starts next year. We’re discussing a lot of things.”

“I don’t see it,” Aresco said on unequal distribution. “I think the majority of our schools will agree with me. I firmly support our current policy of equal revenue sharing. We don’t have entirely equal sharing right now because of the money left over from the old Big East... But as we move forward our plan has always been equal sharing of revenue. Unequal sharing is not who we are. We turned down Boise when they were ready to join. They said they wanted a special deal, they wanted more revenue than the others and we said no. I felt that was the foundation of our conference.”

I think what happened is exactly what was reported.

The reports said he was going to ask select schools to sign this. He probably went to UCF/Memphis/Cinci/etc with his proposal, and they laughed it off. Now of course he needs to backtrack. He can't just say "oh yeah, I asked UCF to sign GOR and they said they rather keep their options open".

His comments don't change anything, aside from most likely confirming that the GOR won't happen. If the GOR was done in response to expecting UConn to leave, then nothing has changed.

[adoraz]

So, here's my theory:

*UConn and the Big East plan to align next year, though not planning to announce until end of the season. Remember, WSU's addition to the AAC wasn't announced until April 2017 (and they started basketball play a few months later).
*The AAC knows that UConn is gone, so in an effort to save face they brought up GOR to the major football schools. UConn wasn't asked because they just found out that they were leaving. The MSG announcement was made after UConn's agreement to join, and the AAC found out shortly after. That explains the rushed Monday morning GOR request.
*Val is happy to finally broadcast some major women's games on Fox and FS1.
*Fox will up the amount of money given out per school.
*UConn will go independent in football, and Fox will ensure them multiple P5 games per year (since they have contracts with the Big Ten, etc).
*Fox will give the Big East secondary package to ESPN (currently with CBS). ESPN may try to lock some of the content behind ESPN+ ($5 a month).
*ESPN is happy because 1. they don't need to pay UConn P5 money 2. they still keep some UConn games without spending extra 3. they gain Big East inventory from 10 other schools.

Again, just pure speculation but I don't see why it couldn't happen.

I doubt all this happens, but I don't think it's unrealistic.

[stever20]

So, here's my theory:

*UConn and the Big East plan to align next year, though not planning to announce until end of the season. Remember, WSU's addition to the AAC wasn't announced until April 2017 (and they started basketball play a few months later).
*The AAC knows that UConn is gone, so in an effort to save face they brought up GOR to the major football schools. UConn wasn't asked because they knew they were gone. The MSG announcement was made after UConn's agreement to join, and the AAC found out shortly after. That explains the rushed Monday morning GOR request.
*Val is happy to finally broadcast some major women's games on Fox and FS1.
*Fox will up the amount of money given out per school.
*UConn will go independent in football, and Fox will ensure them multiple P5 games per year (since they have contracts with the Big Ten, etc).
*Fox will give the Big East secondary package to ESPN (currently with CBS). ESPN may try to lock some of the content behind ESPN+ ($5 a month).
*ESPN is happy because 1. they don't need to pay UConn P5 money 2. they still keep some UConn games without spending extra 3. they gain Big East inventory from 10 other schools.

Again, just pure speculation but I don't see why it couldn't happen.

I doubt all this happens, but I don't think it's unrealistic.

It seems reasonable... The one thing i would say is though that Fox can't guarantee them mutiple P5 games.... They don't control the schedules at all.

[GoldenWarrior11]

So, here's my theory:

*UConn and the Big East plan to align next year, though not planning to announce until end of the season. Remember, WSU's addition to the AAC wasn't announced until April 2017 (and they started basketball play a few months later).
*The AAC knows that UConn is gone, so in an effort to save face they brought up GOR to the major football schools. UConn wasn't asked because they just found out that they were leaving. The MSG announcement was made after UConn's agreement to join, and the AAC found out shortly after. That explains the rushed Monday morning GOR request.
*Val is happy to finally broadcast some major women's games on Fox and FS1.
*Fox will up the amount of money given out per school.
*UConn will go independent in football, and Fox will ensure them multiple P5 games per year (since they have contracts with the Big Ten, etc).
*Fox will give the Big East secondary package to ESPN (currently with CBS). ESPN may try to lock some of the content behind ESPN+ ($5 a month).
*ESPN is happy because 1. they don't need to pay UConn P5 money 2. they still keep some UConn games without spending extra 3. they gain Big East inventory from 10 other schools.

Again, just pure speculation but I don't see why it couldn't happen.

I doubt all this happens, but I don't think it's unrealistic.

*And ESPN gets to drive down the value of the American's next TV deal by causing instability with its membership (which is what it did to the old Big East). They save money on offering cheap filler content for ESPN2, ESPNU and ESPN+.

[adoraz]

So, here's my theory:

*UConn and the Big East plan to align next year, though not planning to announce until end of the season. Remember, WSU's addition to the AAC wasn't announced until April 2017 (and they started basketball play a few months later).
*The AAC knows that UConn is gone, so in an effort to save face they brought up GOR to the major football schools. UConn wasn't asked because they just found out that they were leaving. The MSG announcement was made after UConn's agreement to join, and the AAC found out shortly after. That explains the rushed Monday morning GOR request.
*Val is happy to finally broadcast some major women's games on Fox and FS1.
*Fox will up the amount of money given out per school.
*UConn will go independent in football, and Fox will ensure them multiple P5 games per year (since they have contracts with the Big Ten, etc).
*Fox will give the Big East secondary package to ESPN (currently with CBS). ESPN may try to lock some of the content behind ESPN+ ($5 a month).
*ESPN is happy because 1. they don't need to pay UConn P5 money 2. they still keep some UConn games without spending extra 3. they gain Big East inventory from 10 other schools.

Again, just pure speculation but I don't see why it couldn't happen.

I doubt all this happens, but I don't think it's unrealistic.

*And ESPN gets to drive down the value of the American's next TV deal by causing instability with its membership (which is what it did to the old Big East). They save money on offering cheap filler content for ESPN2, ESPNU and ESPN+.

Very good point.

I'd like to see the argument against my theory. It appears to benefit everyone.

And hey, if I'm wrong that just means the Garden agreed to a 6 year extension with us (removing the 2022 opt out and adding 2 years) without needing to bring UConn into the discussion.

[GoldenWarrior11]

So, here's my theory:

*UConn and the Big East plan to align next year, though not planning to announce until end of the season. Remember, WSU's addition to the AAC wasn't announced until April 2017 (and they started basketball play a few months later).
*The AAC knows that UConn is gone, so in an effort to save face they brought up GOR to the major football schools. UConn wasn't asked because they just found out that they were leaving. The MSG announcement was made after UConn's agreement to join, and the AAC found out shortly after. That explains the rushed Monday morning GOR request.
*Val is happy to finally broadcast some major women's games on Fox and FS1.
*Fox will up the amount of money given out per school.
*UConn will go independent in football, and Fox will ensure them multiple P5 games per year (since they have contracts with the Big Ten, etc).
*Fox will give the Big East secondary package to ESPN (currently with CBS). ESPN may try to lock some of the content behind ESPN+ ($5 a month).
*ESPN is happy because 1. they don't need to pay UConn P5 money 2. they still keep some UConn games without spending extra 3. they gain Big East inventory from 10 other schools.

Again, just pure speculation but I don't see why it couldn't happen.

I doubt all this happens, but I don't think it's unrealistic.

*And ESPN gets to drive down the value of the American's next TV deal by causing instability with its membership (which is what it did to the old Big East). They save money on offering cheap filler content for ESPN2, ESPNU and ESPN+.

Very good point.

I'd like to see the argument against my theory. It appears to benefit everyone.

And hey, if I'm wrong that just means the Garden agreed to a 6 year extension with us (removing the 2022 opt out and adding 2 years) without needing to bring UConn into the discussion.

The AAC exit fee is $10 million, and that is 27-month notice. They would need to pay up in order to leave early.

However, since their deal ends next year, UConn can effectively wait and see what the offer is and simply not agree to sign it. The problem with that is that it is highly unlikely an official offer has been made (since it is clear that negotiations are still on-going). Not to engage in circular thought, but if ESPN (whom the AAC can only talk to right now) knows that if it low-balls or gives another below average offer to the AAC, it will lose UConn to a competitor (Big East), but it will also keep the costs low to keep that content (UCF, USF, Memphis, Cincinnati and Houston) in order to prevent them encouraging the Big 12 to expand (thus, paying them more per member).

The corner that the AAC will find itself in is being on a network that isn't ESPN. No other network will pay more for the AAC content if ESPN isn't willing to engage in a bidding process for. Sure, the top half of the league drew viewership, but it is very unlikely those numbers remain the same on an NBC (against CBS, ESPN/ABC, Fox). No network will be jumping the hoops in order to acquire the football content for Tulane, Tulsa, ECU, SMU and UConn.

[Xudash]

So, here's my theory:

*UConn and the Big East plan to align next year, though not planning to announce until end of the season. Remember, WSU's addition to the AAC wasn't announced until April 2017 (and they started basketball play a few months later).
*The AAC knows that UConn is gone, so in an effort to save face they brought up GOR to the major football schools. UConn wasn't asked because they just found out that they were leaving. The MSG announcement was made after UConn's agreement to join, and the AAC found out shortly after. That explains the rushed Monday morning GOR request.
*Val is happy to finally broadcast some major women's games on Fox and FS1.
*Fox will up the amount of money given out per school.
*UConn will go independent in football, and Fox will ensure them multiple P5 games per year (since they have contracts with the Big Ten, etc).
*Fox will give the Big East secondary package to ESPN (currently with CBS). ESPN may try to lock some of the content behind ESPN+ ($5 a month).
*ESPN is happy because 1. they don't need to pay UConn P5 money 2. they still keep some UConn games without spending extra 3. they gain Big East inventory from 10 other schools.

Again, just pure speculation but I don't see why it couldn't happen.

I doubt all this happens, but I don't think it's unrealistic.

*And ESPN gets to drive down the value of the American's next TV deal by causing instability with its membership (which is what it did to the old Big East). They save money on offering cheap filler content for ESPN2, ESPNU and ESPN+.

Very good point.

I'd like to see the argument against my theory. It appears to benefit everyone.

And hey, if I'm wrong that just means the Garden agreed to a 6 year extension with us (removing the 2022 opt out and adding 2 years) without needing to bring UConn into the discussion.

I think both your comments/thoughts are fantastic - - in a truly good way.

Quick question - and something else that could be spurring this along: when does the old BE separation money run out for UCONN? In a world where their finances are already a mess, that will be like gtmo receiving extended shore leave (a different kind of nasty, but nasty nonetheless).

[GoldenWarrior11]

I think both your comments/thoughts are fantastic - - in a truly good way.

Quick question - and something else that could be spurring this along: when does the old BE separation money run out for UCONN? In a world where their finances are already a mess, that will be like gtmo receiving extended shore leave (a different kind of nasty, but nasty nonetheless).

It already ran out. UC/UConn/USF were receiving nearly $10 million annually between the AAC TV deal, BE War Chest funds, CFP money, NCAA Credits, etc. from 2014-2018. In order for those schools to not take a paycut, the next deal needs to be at least $10 million per school per year, which the current estimates for the conference fall short of the projections (the SBJ said 3-4x the current deal, which would mean it to between $5 and $7 million).

The divorce settlement (war chest) funds were around $3 million annually for those three schools. This was part of the $100 million the C7 gave to the AAC in return for the Big East name and history. Those were paid out over the five years post-split. I want to say that between $85 and $90 million stayed with UC/UConn/USF and the remainder was paid out equally to the rest of the new AAC members.

[stever20]

I think both your comments/thoughts are fantastic - - in a truly good way.

Quick question - and something else that could be spurring this along: when does the old BE separation money run out for UCONN? In a world where their finances are already a mess, that will be like gtmo receiving extended shore leave (a different kind of nasty, but nasty nonetheless).

It already ran out. UC/UConn/USF were receiving nearly $10 million annually between the AAC TV deal, BE War Chest funds, CFP money, NCAA Credits, etc. from 2014-2018. In order for those schools to not take a paycut, the next deal needs to be at least $10 million per school per year, which the current estimates for the conference fall short of the projections (the SBJ said 3-4x the current deal, which would mean it to between $5 and $7 million).

The divorce settlement (war chest) funds were around $3 million annually for those three schools. This was part of the $100 million the C7 gave to the AAC in return for the Big East name and history. Those were paid out over the five years post-split. I want to say that between $85 and $90 million stayed with UC/UConn/USF and the remainder was paid out equally to the rest of the new AAC members.

Wrong.... And you know it.

first off the NCAA Credits that are going to be paid in 2019 cover the 2013-18 tournaments. So 2013 was the last year of the old big east.....

For the TV Deal, it does NOT need to be 10 million for those schools to not take a paycut.... They get roughly 20 million dollars as a conference from the CFP. Then another 4 million for the access bid spot. So that's 24 million right there. They get on say 40 units from the NCAA tourney 10 million dollars.. So that's 34 million. If the new TV deal was 8 million per year per school- that's 96 million. That would be 130 million for the conference- and that's before things like the AAC tourney revenues.... That would be 10 million per school.