10 point thing

[stever20]

one thing you wonder with the 10 point thing is if you're playing a friend and you're down by 9 late with your opponent having the ball- do you foul on purpose to help the friend out?

Case in point- just watched the Uconn game and late they were up 9 on Morehead St with about 20 seconds to go and UConn with the ball shot clock turned off. Morehead fouls and UConn makes one free throw to get them the 10 point win.

It's such a weird thing now.

[Hall2012]

If the difference between a 9 and 10 point win is significant enough for that to matter, the system is beyond broken.

[stever20]

If the difference between a 9 and 10 point win is significant enough for that to matter, the system is beyond broken.

Most of the time it probably won't matter. But there can easily be times where the ratings between 2 teams are so close that a little thing like that could matter.

But I'm pretty sure the "penalty" is greater as you go down- a 9 point win doesn't hurt much, but a 2 point win vs a bad team would hurt quite a lot.

1 thing just watching it last night with UConn- don't think there was really a time in there where UConn would have played the bench more if it was RPI instead of NET- even being up 10 in the last minute.

[cu blujs]

Against Auburn in the NCAAs back around the turn of the century (I forget exact year), Creighton hit back to back threes and had the ball out under our own basket with 2 seconds to play and a final shot to tie at the buzzer after being down 9 with 13 seconds to go. And then there was that Georgetown debacle a few years back where we gave up a similar lead in the last 20 seconds. So, I wouldn't just assume that Morehead State fouled just to give them 10. (shot was blocked, by the way). Now if Morehead State then inbounded the ball and didn't try to score, you might have something.

[kayako]

If the difference between a 9 and 10 point win is significant enough for that to matter, the system is beyond broken.

It should be the opposite. 9 and 10 should be very small difference, but coaches are probably more likely to go for "max value" vs a system with infinite upside.

[Hall2012]

Does the 10 point thing apply to losses the same as wins? Would a coach now accept a 6-7 pt loss rather than fouling to get back in the game out of fear of expanding the deficit to 10? It won't be an early season issue, but in the last few weeks we're gonna have bubble teams desperate for every NET point they can get. And if coaches then see a benefit of going into "damage control" mode rather than fighting for a win, it's going to be a major disservice to the game. I don't like the fouling at the end of games, but it's better than a team giving up out of fear of artificially inflating the margin of defeat.

[stever20]

Does the 10 point thing apply to losses the same as wins? Would a coach now accept a 6-7 pt loss rather than fouling to get back in the game out of fear of expanding the deficit to 10? It won't be an early season issue, but in the last few weeks we're gonna have bubble teams desperate for every NET point they can get. And if coaches then see a benefit of going into "damage control" mode rather than fighting for a win, it's going to be a major disservice to the game. I don't like the fouling at the end of games, but it's better than a team giving up out of fear of artificially inflating the margin of defeat.

I'd be fairly sure that it does apply to losses......

I think where we may see it in play is if a team is down 7 with 15 seconds to go, so 3 possessions, they might give up now.

One thing I wonder if we find out is if a team is up 8 with 10 seconds to go and a team isn't fouling but not playing real defense either- we might see teams scoring a garbage basket to get the game up to 10 points. Where a coach looks like he's upset with the player, but in reality he's told his team to do just that if it's a single digit game......

[billyjack]

Does the 10 point thing apply to losses the same as wins? Would a coach now accept a 6-7 pt loss rather than fouling to get back in the game out of fear of expanding the deficit to 10? It won't be an early season issue, but in the last few weeks we're gonna have bubble teams desperate for every NET point they can get. And if coaches then see a benefit of going into "damage control" mode rather than fighting for a win, it's going to be a major disservice to the game. I don't like the fouling at the end of games, but it's better than a team giving up out of fear of artificially inflating the margin of defeat.

Totally agree Hall.
Basically, the teams are now playing against a point spread of 10 points each game.
This 10-point thing is the dumbest thing to happen to college hoops, maybe ever.
This is dumber than if college hoops moves to quarters instead of halves.

[stever20]

saw this-
https://twitter.com/JohnGasaway/status/ ... em-explain

it's got 5 components. components listed in order of weight-
1- Team Value Index. Factors Opponent, Location, and winner
2- Offensive/Defensive Efficency. Note that these are not capped at all..... So like lets take this week- Providence over Siena by 19. Providence scored 1.26 points per poss. Siena scored 1.10 points per poss. +0.16. Marquette beats UMBC by 25. Marquette scored 1.00 points per poss. UMBC scored 0.63 points per poss. +0.37 for Marquette. Marquette would be ranked much higher than Providence with that.
3- Winning Percentage
4- Adjusted winning percentage (the 1.4 for away wins/1.0 for neutral wins, 0.6 for home wins)
5- Scoring margin

[xusandy]

Here we are 1 game into the new season, and the BE addicts among us want to start analyzing/debating one component of the NCAAs new evaluation framework for selecting tournament teams.

There are 5 components to the new system, numbered in order of importance; the easiest one to understand is #5 - Wins by 10 points or more (even including against cupcakes. I wonder who thought that little stat is relevant? -- somebody powerful enough to get it included as a component for sure! Boeheim? He always scheduled cupcakes before the BE season.)

So if/when the Selection Committee gets down to the 5th tiebreaker in choosing among the last 2-3 at-large bids, the "10 point thing" might become relevant. That teams might pay strategic attention to this utterly trivial item during the season seems highly unlikely to me.