The Next Five Years [ From 16 July 2018 ]

[adoraz]

MSG attendance is on the rise because the conference is getting older and more established. This year was our best year for attendance so far and georgetown lost in the first round and st. john's got demolished in the quarterfinals. Those were the only two rounds that didn't sell out. I guess we just had to wait for them to lose before people started showing up. But seriously, how does this year's tournament attendance help your narrative at all?

Those were not the only two rounds that didn't sell out... To my knowledge, none of the rounds prior to the Semis sold out. SJU's quarterfinals game was at noon on Thursday vs Xavier so that's not going to sell out especially with SJU being a 9 seed. The SJU vs Georgetown attendance seemed great to me, and by the time the second half came around (Marquette vs DePaul), the stadium started clearing out.

I am giving Nova the big majority of credit in terms of BET attendance for the past few years. A lot of fans are going to try and beat Nova, and obviously Nova fans themselves are coming out big time. The semis had Providence and Nova in them, so I'm not surprised they sold out.

Here's a question, has a Midwest vs Midwest team (half the conference) ever sold out at MSG? I'm not certain of the answer, but I don't think that's ever happened. That alone should tell you all you need to know.

The only two rounds before the semis are the quarterfinals and the first round which were the only rounds that didn’t sell out and the only rounds Georgetown, St. John’s, Marquette, DePaul, and seton hall played in. the only rounds that sold out were nova, butler, Xavier, and Providence. This is just a ridiculous narrative.

St. John’s hasn’t been good for 30 years and the big east and big east tournament have always been fine. Like I said, the only reason the tournament struggled was that the conference was new and new rivalries and teams had to be established. Now in year 5 we just had the highest attended conference tournament once again all without st Johns.

....Really? Lol

Ok, yes obviously the first round didn't sell out. It never does. Yes, as stated the SEMIS sold out because Nova was in it, and you could argue the other semi sold out because of Providence being nearby. If it was #1 Xavier vs another Midwest, would it have sold out? I don't think so, but you've done nothing to prove your point. I questioned whether a Midwest vs Midwest BET game has ever sold out.

Since you don't feel like answering, I'll answer for you. In 2017, the year after Nova won the Title, there were two semis. One was Nova vs SHU and the other Xavier vs Creighton. Guess which one sold out?

I am not arguing for SJU only. I am arguing for all the East coast teams, in particular Nova. Nova is only a couple hour drive from MSG. If Nova had not won the Title in 2016 and weren't in the BET Finals, I think there's no chance at all we'd be having multiple sell outs in 2017 and 2018.

Come on guys. Are people really acting like Nova didn't dominate in terms of fans the past couple years?

Again, I know there's a difference between the regular season, but SJU regularly schedules East coast teams like Nova, Georgetown, Duke, Cuse (before they quit), and sometimes schools like SHU and Providence if they're good.

We tried scheduling Midwest teams like Creighton and Xavier at MSG, but they were the worst attended games. Even Marquette we had to move to CA. We're currently not scheduling any Midwest schools.

[gtmoBlue]

So given Adoraz's logic (as he never addressed what a resurgent StJ & Gtwn directly benefits the Big East), we can assume the following:

1) Gtwn/StJ attendance gets a significant boost. Adoraz did a Chris Mack and threw all the Midwest teams "under the bus".
2) Their televised games also get a boost, benefitting the BE.
3) Both get ranked, adding to press/internet coverage, which also aids conference prestige...along with the other 2 BE schools which are normally ranked.
4) The BET sells out annually. New record BETs benefit the conference.
5) Ultimately, with the 3-5 year resurrection of Gtwn/StJ could along with Nova/X maintaining their status, increase leverage for the Conference's renegotiations next TV contract (although the same can be said for Prov/Marq or Butler/Cr8n).

So it's a win/win for Gtwn/StJ and for the Big East! Gtwn/ StJ subsequently get invites to the ACC to rejoin their more prestigious former rivals (S'cuse, Pitt, BC, ND, L'ville), and maybe UConn. The entire ACC gets games at MSG.

Hurrah!

[adoraz]

So given Adoraz's logic (as he never addressed what a resurgent StJ & Gtwn directly benefits the Big East), we can assume the following:

1) Gtwn/StJ attendance gets a significant boost. Adoraz did a Chris Mack and threw all the Midwest teams "under the bus".
2) Their televised games also get a boost, benefitting the BE.
3) Both get ranked, adding to press/internet coverage, which also aids conference prestige...along with the other 2 BE schools which are normally ranked.
4) The BET sells out annually. New record BETs benefit the conference.
5) Ultimately, with the 3-5 year resurrection of Gtwn/StJ could along with Nova/X maintaining their status, increase leverage for the Conference's renegotiations next TV contract (although the same can be said for Prov/Marq or Butler/Cr8n).

So it's a win/win for Gtwn/StJ and for the Big East! Gtwn/ StJ subsequently get invites to the ACC to rejoin their more prestigious former rivals (S'cuse, Pitt, BC, ND, L'ville), and maybe UConn. The entire ACC gets games at MSG.

Hurrah!

You got it, GTMO!

Aside from that last part.

BTW guys, I am not trying to throw the Midwest under the bus. Clearly they have helped the conference out tremendously while teams like SJU/Georgetown have sucked. The conference would be a mess right now if X/BU/Creighton haven't been as good as they have been.

I'm repeating myself, but this is ONLY about who MSG/Fox would rather have leading the conference. It's the teams in the largest cities with the biggest alumni bases. If you all can convince me otherwise then go for it. I'm providing stats but most others are just responding with emotion.

Just because I think MSG would rather have Georgetown in the Finals next year rather than Butler doesn't mean I'm disrespecting Butler lol.

[gtmoBlue]

adoraz: but this is ONLY about who MSG/Fox would rather have leading the conference. It's the teams in the largest cities with the biggest alumni bases. If you all can convince me otherwise then go for it. I'm providing stats but most others are just responding with emotion.

Just because I think MSG would rather have Georgetown in the Finals next year rather than Butler doesn't mean I'm disrespecting Butler lol.

MSG/BE care about alumni bases, for getting butts in seats for the BET, but that doesn't appear to be a current problem. Perhaps, in the future if conference peformance drops off ( a 22 to 24 win champ), that will be a concern.

Alum bases really don't factor in for Fox...Winning records and rankings boost general viewership of nationally televised games, and even StJ/DePaul, if winning and ranked will do that. Most of our games are nationally televised now, if you all remember. However, a Gtwn/StJ resurgence is about as likely as a StJ/DePaul resurgence...not very likely. No disrespect to StJ/DePaul...just the facts.

[adoraz]

adoraz: but this is ONLY about who MSG/Fox would rather have leading the conference. It's the teams in the largest cities with the biggest alumni bases. If you all can convince me otherwise then go for it. I'm providing stats but most others are just responding with emotion.

Just because I think MSG would rather have Georgetown in the Finals next year rather than Butler doesn't mean I'm disrespecting Butler lol.

MSG/BE care about alumni bases, for getting butts in seats for the BET, but that doesn't appear to be a current problem. Perhaps, in the future if conference peformance drops off ( a 22 to 24 win champ), that will be a concern.

Alum bases really don't factor in for Fox...Winning records and rankings boost general viewership of nationally televised games, and even StJ/DePaul, if winning and ranked will do that. Most of our games are nationally televised now, if you all remember. However, a Gtwn/StJ resurgence is about as likely as a StJ/DePaul resurgence...not very likely. No disrespect to StJ/DePaul...just the facts.

You're right, it's not a current problem because Nova has been carrying the conference on their back and has been in the Finals/Semis for the past 4 years. Meaning, during the 3 most important slots (Semis/Finals), Nova has been in 67% of them for the past 4 years.

We don't truly know yet what happens if we don't have Nova making a run every time, so I feel it'd be beneficial for one of the nearby teams to start being a consistent contender. Even a strong Seton Hall I feel would help, due to proximity and not alumni size.

To be honest, I don't know about TV ratings. They're really difficult to find. It'd be interesting to see how many times Fox/CBS has put each team on their network. That should be telling, but would require a lot of digging.

[Dave]

18/19
1. Nova
2-10. Everyone else

19/20
1. Nova
2-10. Everyone else

20/21
1. Nova
2-10. Everyone else

21/22
1. Nova
2-10. Everyone else

22/23
1. Nova
2-10. Everyone else

[Xudash]

The primary question that was raised for discussion by gtmo was: "Who are our top 4 teams in (5 years) 2023? What is the pecking order of all teams in 2023?"

Then, as threads often do, the conversation began to meander towards "program curb appeal" and what's best for BET attendance, etc. That's fine. Message boards would be too orderly if threads didn't manage to get off topic along the way.

So, as concerns the top 4 teams in 5 years, allow me to go at this on a cause and effect basis. I have one word for you: ADMINISTRATION. The programs that will be at the top of this conference in 4 years, or any year for that matter are those programs that have the sharpest administrations who hire the right people, invest in their program, and build their overall brand - school, basketball program, etc. Those programs become or maintain themselves as winners, and the best players available who favor the BE environment will gravitate to them, all else being equal, assuming there is no specific geographical bias or other reason that a player would favor a lessor program. If a school causes itself to establish a strong administration up and down the line - university and the AD - then the effect is going to be that it will produce strong teams and will continue to strengthen its brand.

If you accept that basic, albeit wordy thought, you might still say, "fine, so a number of BE schools and teams are proving themselves worthy in this regard, so where is the separation when it comes to this idea?"

I'm biased, but I see very real strength in this regard when it comes to Villanova, Xavier, and Providence, and I'm thinking that Georgetown and Marquette belong in this camp, too.

Creighton and Butler could argue they belong on the first tier. Seton Hall, unless I'm missing something, is lacking on the facilities side. St. Johns can't be considered for the top tier. DePaul? Well, my God.

Villanova, through its well established culture and brand, and with Jay Wright seemingly locked in there for a number of more years, is a solid pick to still be at the top in 4 years.

Knowing what I know about Xavier, I have absolutely total confidence in X maintaining and improving upon its BE and national standing. As I noted earlier, "Administration" is both about how the school develops as well as how its athletic department is managed and develops through time. Xavier already has the Cintas Center improvements fully underway. The school otherwise is now putting in place a key missing piece: https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/2017/12/12/xavier-campus-trihealth-part-gym-part-health-center-part-academic-facility/945484001/. Highly rated players have very specific and key reasons for selecting their schools, but I believe they want their selected schools to be reasonably impressive. I'm sure all our schools have capital campaigns going that involve key capital projects. It's just that this HUB project represents a key piece for Xavier's campus and its community. Xavier has ridden basketball as a growth engine for over three decades now. It's work isn't finished, and management knows it.

Providence gets it and it has Cooley well positioned for continuing success. Georgetown is Georgetown. If it fully wakes up through Ewing, watch out. It's new facility can only help Patrick in his efforts to attract strong recruits. Marquette's tradition coupled with the new facility that it will play in moving forward sets Wojo up nicely if he stays and assuming he rounds out as a coach.

For the top four, I'll pivot on assuming Ewing is successful: Villanova, Xavier, Providence and Georgetown.

BET attendance? It stands to reason that the PROBABILITY is such that success on the part of the eastern teams will continue to set the stage for successful BET's.

Television appeal? IMHO, that question takes us back to brand strength. If UCONN (from Stowe, CT) and Syracuse (Syracuse, NY) can do what they've done in building basketball programs and making themselves appealing on TV programming schedules, then the size of a school's city doesn't matter. However, if the point is that the television executives would find it more attractive if a big market school were relevant on the national stage - St. Johns in NY or DePaul in Chicago - then I have no problem with that point. But I have no problem with it because I'm very confident in the Xavier brand.

[Hall2012]

I think the take that any team(s) being at top the of the league being more beneficial than others is ridiculous. If we have multiple very good teams, the league will to do well regardless of school name or location. National television audiences care about quality, that's it. SJU may be able to draw a bigger local television audience than Creighton for example, but in either case the local audience is a very small portion of the national audience sizes that Fox and the Big East are after. And location/fan base size has little to no impact on that national audience/casual viewer.

So, if you asked the Big East's two largest partners, Fox and MSG, who they would rather have as the Top 3 in the conference for the next 5 years:

1. Georgetown
2. St. John's
3. Nova

or

1. Xavier
2. Creighton
3. Butler

Do you honestly think a single person at either would rather have the latter?

The former would lead to higher TV ratings and a larger contract. We'd also be 100% guaranteed to renew the MSG lease even if the ACC offers having it there every year.

It honestly feels like people are just being over sensitive about this. It is not only about the TV markets but also the size of the schools. The biggest are mostly in the largest cities (DePaul, SJU, Georgetown). That's not a coincidence, it's because the Big East when selecting these schools had more options in the larger cities and went with schools that not only had basketball success but also good size student bases.

Students at each (rounding up):
DePaul 24K
St. John's 20K
Georgetown 18K
Marquette 12K
Nova 11K
Seton Hall 10K
Creighton 8K
Xavier 6K
Butler 5K
Providence 5K

I honestly think both would say they don't give a crap. If you asked MSG for a preference, maybe they'd say SJU, SHU, and Nova because they're the closest - but the bottom line is the majority of BET tickets are sold to the schools who then sell on to their fan bases, so MSG makes its money regardless.

As for FOX, they wouldn't care at all. Duke has a total enrollment of 15k (less than 7k undergrad) and is one of the best viewership draws in the country. Fans and alumni make up a small percentage of national TV audiences - the casual viewers are what make the difference and for the most part they don't care where a school is located or how many students it has. They just want to see good basketball. It's far more important that our top 3 teams have high national rankings than be located in the big cities or have big 30 year old histories. Fox would choose a top 3 of Xavier (AP 7), Creighton (AP 8), Butler (AP 10) over Georgetown (AP 21), St. John's (AP 23), Villanova (receiving votes) 100 out of 100 times.

[adoraz]

I think the take that any team(s) being at top the of the league being more beneficial than others is ridiculous. If we have multiple very good teams, the league will to do well regardless of school name or location. National television audiences care about quality, that's it. SJU may be able to draw a bigger local television audience than Creighton for example, but in either case the local audience is a very small portion of the national audience sizes that Fox and the Big East are after. And location/fan base size has little to no impact on that national audience/casual viewer.

So, if you asked the Big East's two largest partners, Fox and MSG, who they would rather have as the Top 3 in the conference for the next 5 years:

1. Georgetown
2. St. John's
3. Nova

or

1. Xavier
2. Creighton
3. Butler

Do you honestly think a single person at either would rather have the latter?

The former would lead to higher TV ratings and a larger contract. We'd also be 100% guaranteed to renew the MSG lease even if the ACC offers having it there every year.

It honestly feels like people are just being over sensitive about this. It is not only about the TV markets but also the size of the schools. The biggest are mostly in the largest cities (DePaul, SJU, Georgetown). That's not a coincidence, it's because the Big East when selecting these schools had more options in the larger cities and went with schools that not only had basketball success but also good size student bases.

Students at each (rounding up):
DePaul 24K
St. John's 20K
Georgetown 18K
Marquette 12K
Nova 11K
Seton Hall 10K
Creighton 8K
Xavier 6K
Butler 5K
Providence 5K

I honestly think both would say they don't give a crap. If you asked MSG for a preference, maybe they'd say SJU, SHU, and Nova because they're the closest - but the bottom line is the majority of BET tickets are sold to the schools who then sell on to their fan bases, so MSG makes its money regardless.

As for FOX, they wouldn't care at all. Duke has a total enrollment of 15k (less than 7k undergrad) and is one of the best viewership draws in the country. Fans and alumni make up a small percentage of national TV audiences - the casual viewers are what make the difference and for the most part they don't care where a school is located or how many students it has. They just want to see good basketball. It's far more important that our top 3 teams have high national rankings than be located in the big cities or have big 30 year old histories. Fox would choose a top 3 of Xavier (AP 7), Creighton (AP 8), Butler (AP 10) over Georgetown (AP 21), St. John's (AP 23), Villanova (receiving votes) 100 out of 100 times.

I don't think it's that simple regarding MSG. This was a bigger issue a few years back and tbh I don't know all the details, but MSG wants people in seats. There are multiple advantages to that happening, such as selling their extremely overpriced food, drinks, merch, etc. I think they may benefit in some way with there being higher ticket prices, even if they're on the secondary market. I could be completely wrong about that, though. But at least in terms of having people actually there, there's a clear advantage.

For Fox, I know you mentioned Duke, but they're Duke. When I was 10 years old and living in PA I became a Duke fan (yeah yeah, I know... I'm not anymore). The Duke brand over the past couple decades is arguably the best in college basketball. They are also in the most popular conference and play all the big name schools (unlike Gonzaga, who have meh TV ratings). Duke is the extreme exception and not the norm. Could one of our schools become that? Sure. Nova is getting close... but nobody else is.

And yes, Fox would choose the higher ranked teams generally. I agree. My post was assuming all was equal in terms of rankings. I understand your overall point and think it's valid.

[Dave]

So, as concerns the top 4 teams in 5 years, allow me to go at this on a cause and effect basis. I have one word for you: ADMINISTRATION. The programs that will be at the top of this conference in 4 years, or any year for that matter are those programs that have the sharpest administrations who hire the right people, invest in their program, and build their overall brand - school, basketball program, etc. Those programs become or maintain themselves as winners, and the best players available who favor the BE environment will gravitate to them, all else being equal, assuming there is no specific geographical bias or other reason that a player would favor a lessor program. If a school causes itself to establish a strong administration up and down the line - university and the AD - then the effect is going to be that it will produce strong teams and will continue to strengthen its brand.

I'm biased, but I see very real strength in this regard when it comes to Villanova, Xavier, and Providence, and I'm thinking that Georgetown and Marquette belong in this camp, too.

I have two words for you: HEAD COACH.

Nova and Jay win in spite the administration. The best thing the administration can do is stay out of the way.

What other coach in the Big East has NCAA tournament success? Anyone?

The Big East is Jay and everyone else at this point. It's a coach's game.