(3) Big East Games- Wed. 2/14/17

[Friarsfan94]

What's up with Nova? Of course they're not gonna win them all, but losing to StJ and Prov? Shoot lights out vs Creighton & Xavier, but losing games they're expected to win. Well, this ain't the B-12, so come on X...we need a new champion anyways.

Unfortunately, they will have a sterling game (with Booth back) in Omaha - where's the justice?

You group Providence with St. John’s then group Creighton with Xavier. Lol. Providence beat all of them, not just Nova.

[Jet915]

What's up with Nova? Of course they're not gonna win them all, but losing to StJ and Prov? Shoot lights out vs Creighton & Xavier, but losing games they're expected to win. Well, this ain't the B-12, so come on X...we need a new champion anyways.

Unfortunately, they will have a sterling game (with Booth back) in Omaha - where's the justice?

You group Providence with St. John’s then group Creighton with Xavier. Lol. Providence beat all of them, not just Nova.

You also get demolished by DePaul at home....

[gtmoBlue]

I did point out that Nova played/shot well against X and CU. It's not a grouping. The cats shot and played far worse vs StJ & Prov. Contrary to sensitive folks - it is fact, not a demeaning slight against your team. No one is putting Prov down, merely making an observation about Nova. Yes, Prov has won once vs them all, but Nova was leading the conference.

[Friarsfan94]

What's up with Nova? Of course they're not gonna win them all, but losing to StJ and Prov? Shoot lights out vs Creighton & Xavier, but losing games they're expected to win. Well, this ain't the B-12, so come on X...we need a new champion anyways.

Unfortunately, they will have a sterling game (with Booth back) in Omaha - where's the justice?

You group Providence with St. John’s then group Creighton with Xavier. Lol. Providence beat all of them, not just Nova.

You also get demolished by DePaul at home....

Without Lindsey. That shouldn’t be an excuse, but when they lose to DePaul 3 straight years with Lindsey in street clothes with an injury, theres gotta be some sort of corrolation.

[stever20]

Stever, if we go 15-15 we make the NIT I would think. Two top 4 wins is a big deal and you aren't factoring that at all.

I posted this earlier but I don't know what happened.....

It would really hinge for you guys on the BET. 15-16 would be a big problem I think- losing 1st round of the BET.

Also, with 12 conferences who are going to be sending only 1 team to the NCAA tourney being right now within 1 game of each other for 1st place, going to see a ton of NIT bid thieves this year probably. That's going to limit the number of bids. Combine that with the teams that just miss the NCAA tourney- St John's won't be close to that. Could be realistically about 8-12 spots that St John's has a chance at.

[adoraz]

Stever, if we go 15-15 we make the NIT I would think. Two top 4 wins is a big deal and you aren't factoring that at all.

I posted this earlier but I don't know what happened.....

It would really hinge for you guys on the BET. 15-16 would be a big problem I think- losing 1st round of the BET.

Also, with 12 conferences who are going to be sending only 1 team to the NCAA tourney being right now within 1 game of each other for 1st place, going to see a ton of NIT bid thieves this year probably. That's going to limit the number of bids. Combine that with the teams that just miss the NCAA tourney- St John's won't be close to that. Could be realistically about 8-12 spots that St John's has a chance at.

Strongly disagree. You're looking at basically one metric- record, while ignoring the others. They can finish below .500 and make the NIT.

Keep in mind all the positives:
*Will finish with a top 5 SOS
*Have some huge wins
*Strong finish (assuming finishing 15-16 despite an 11 game losing streak)
*Ponds was out or injured during the losing streak
*RPI would be somewhere in the 70s

I highly doubt 2018 will be a super abnormal year for bid thieves. Here's a look at the 2017 NIT teams and their RPI (bold are auto bid so ignore those):
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/nit.html
8/10 teams with RPI in the 60s made it (not sure if the other 2 teams made the NCAA)
7/10 teams with RPI in the 70s made it (one autobid)
4/10 teams with RPI in the 80s made it
#99 Colorado and #106 Georgia Tech also made it

So, since St. John's would have a top 5 SOS, at least 2 massive wins, an RPI in the 70s, etc.... how could you say they wouldn't make it? You always focus way too much on record.

If St. John's doesn't make the NIT at this point, that'll be a let down. Fortunate they've been able to turn the season around like this.

I still hope to sneak onto the *real* bubble. If we can somehow win 4-5 more games and sneak into the bubble conversation, I like our chances. Would make for a great story. I don't think a top 50 RPI is critical for the team given the rest of the resume.

One game at a time though. Just glad to be playing meaningful ball still.

[stever20]

record does mean a lot. For one, I'm not even sure they actually consider teams with losing records..... an interesting comp to St John's is Florida in 2015. They were 16-17 and had a RPI of 70. KP of 35. saw a story about that and according to the story about Florida missing in 2015, they said that no team in NIT history has ever finished with a sub .500 record regular season. http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/colle ... 37783.html (just looking last 2 years, that's still the case) Now, that's a bit unfair IMO as there was a rule on the books until the 2006 tourney not allowing that. But still, that's 12 years with no losing team ever making it. Pretty fair precedent I'd say.

but also even if they do. 15-15 going into the BET would be a RPI of around 67. Add to that a home loss to DePaul most likely in the BET, and that would drop it to around 75-80. Using the RPI wizard on RPI forecast, giving St John's wins @ Marquette and home vs Butler- losses home to Seton Hall and @ Providence, then losing to Georgetown/Marquette loser 1st rd of BET- projects RPI to be 78 with #7/60 SOS. st john's would have RPI of 78 and a KP around 70. just winning that and losing to Xavier say- puts their RPI up to 64. Yes, that huge of a difference.

also while last year had only 9 teams who got in to the NIT due to winning regular season conference then losing in conference tourney, the year before had 15 teams that did that. The number of NIT bid thieves(those at the lower end of things based off of seeding) has been pretty much 9. This year has had more parity than in years past so I think it's very easy to say there could be a lot more bid thieves than normal.

1 major thing is that the BET does count as home game, so 1.4 losses for St John's to only 0.6 wins. So using RPI wizard giving them best case- 17-13 then a loss to Creighton in QF- that puts the RPI at 52 with #4 SOS. Would be really fringe bubble I think- and would be a pretty recent historical selection record wise. now putting it as beating DePaul and losing to Nova in QF, still 52 RPI with a 5 SOS. So quite possibly needs to make SF of BET to make the tourney with winning out regular season.

[Bill Marsh]

I did point out that Nova played/shot well against X and CU. It's not a grouping. The cats shot and played far worse vs StJ & Prov. Contrary to sensitive folks - it is fact, not a demeaning slight against your team. No one is putting Prov down, merely making an observation about Nova. Yes, Prov has won once vs them all, but Nova was leading the conference.

Not to take anything away from St John’s and how they played against Nova, but the Wildcats were down 2 starters in that game, forcing DiVincenzo into the starting lineup and weakening the bench. He and the 3 regular starters each logged 35-38 minutes against St John’s. Collin Gillespie, who normally plays less than 15 minutes, played 30.

The Providence defense had something to do with how Villanova shot in that game. It wasn’t just a bad night for Nova. More like a bad matchup for the Wildcats. They depend on the 3 more than any team in the league; the Friars have the best 3-point defense in the Big East. And Even though Paschall played, Booth still wasn’t back yet.

[Friarsfan94]

I did point out that Nova played/shot well against X and CU. It's not a grouping. The cats shot and played far worse vs StJ & Prov. Contrary to sensitive folks - it is fact, not a demeaning slight against your team. No one is putting Prov down, merely making an observation about Nova. Yes, Prov has won once vs them all, but Nova was leading the conference.

I understand what you meant, but the way you said it absolutely came off as “how could Nova play so good against the good teams then play so shitty against the bad teams.” You used the term “supposed to” in reference to Villanova beating St. John’s and Providence but countered as if they were not “supposed to” beat Xavier and Creighton.

[Bill Marsh]

I did point out that Nova played/shot well against X and CU. It's not a grouping. The cats shot and played far worse vs StJ & Prov. Contrary to sensitive folks - it is fact, not a demeaning slight against your team. No one is putting Prov down, merely making an observation about Nova. Yes, Prov has won once vs them all, but Nova was leading the conference.

I understand what you meant, but the way you said it absolutely came off as “how could Nova play so good against the good teams then play so shitty against the bad teams.” You used the term “supposed to” in reference to Villanova beating St. John’s and Providence but countered as if they were not “supposed to” beat Xavier and Creighton.

Let’s note that Villanova also played so good against St John’s and Providence the first time they saw them, pasting the Friars by 20 and using 13 3’s (43%) to overcome a 43 point outburst by Ponds in MSG. PC used home court advantage to turn the tables and St John’s has obviously caught lightning in a bottle at least for a week. These are both good - especially against conference opponents whom they know very well.

Despite the fact that Villanova played well against X and Creighton at home, they’re now going to have to show what they can do on the road and the 2nd time around.