(2) Big East Games- Tuesday 2/13/18

[stever20]

The loser of the Butler/Providence game is going to have some trouble.

Butler would need to go 2-1 vs Creighton, @ St John's, @ Seton Hall
Providence would need to go 2-3 vs Villanova, Seton Hall, @ Georgetown, @ Xavier, and St John's(basically 2-1 vs the non Nova/Xavier teams)

While Butler might be able to go 1-2 and make the tourney, really no shot for Providence to do so. Given the game between the 2 is at Butler, Providence could be in trouble. It wouldn't be all that easy quite frankly.

[DanofXav76]

The Hoyas are finally closing games. Look out Xavier we are gonna bring it

The Hoyas certainly have my respect. Welcome Back! Now this is the kind of GT basketball I grew up enjoying and respecting. So happy for the Big Man for quicker results than I had hoped for or expected. Georgetown returning to relevance is a big piece of what is becoming the best college basketball conference in the country. X is a little preoccupied right now, but looking forward to seeing you in D.C. on the 21st. Enjoy your break.

[X-man]

I was impressed with the talent and coaching of the Hoyas when they visited Xavier, and lost on a Bluiett 4-pt play in regulation leading to OT. They have lost so many close ones, but now seem to be closing better, that it makes me wonder if they should have scheduled tougher in the non-conference. A more competitive non-conference schedule might have toughened them up earlier, and they would have done better earlier in league play. Just a thought, but a cautionary tale for our league.

[DanofXav76]

I was impressed with the talent and coaching of the Hoyas when they visited Xavier, and lost on a Bluiett 4-pt play in regulation leading to OT. They have lost so many close ones, but now seem to be closing better, that it makes me wonder if they should have scheduled tougher in the non-conference. A more competitive non-conference schedule might have toughened them up earlier, and they would have done better earlier in league play. Just a thought, but a cautionary tale for our league.

Or you could say their OC schedule brought along a young team with a new coach at the right speed, without squashing their confidence early. Good points to be made on either side of this move (also was most of their OC schedule already in place before Patrick was hired)?

[Red Rooster]

I was impressed with the talent and coaching of the Hoyas when they visited Xavier, and lost on a Bluiett 4-pt play in regulation leading to OT. They have lost so many close ones, but now seem to be closing better, that it makes me wonder if they should have scheduled tougher in the non-conference. A more competitive non-conference schedule might have toughened them up earlier, and they would have done better earlier in league play. Just a thought, but a cautionary tale for our league.

Or you could say their OC schedule brought along a young team with a new coach at the right speed, without squashing their confidence early. Good points to be made on either side of this move (also was most of their OC schedule already in place before Patrick was hired)?

Their team really isn't that young. That's a misnomer. The only youthful players logging minutes are Pickett (who was a top 75 recruit) and Blair. The other players aren't what I'd consider "young."

They're playing better ball, but their poor OOC schedule may even keep them out of the NIT.

[Xavier4036]

The loser of the Butler/Providence game is going to have some trouble.

Butler would need to go 2-1 vs Creighton, @ St John's, @ Seton Hall
Providence would need to go 2-3 vs Villanova, Seton Hall, @ Georgetown, @ Xavier, and St John's(basically 2-1 vs the non Nova/Xavier teams)

While Butler might be able to go 1-2 and make the tourney, really no shot for Providence to do so. Given the game between the 2 is at Butler, Providence could be in trouble. It wouldn't be all that easy quite frankly.

Butler and Providence are in better positions to make the tournament than other teams that could be on the bubble..... say Houston or Temple

Butler has 3 Tier 1 wins, 4 Tier 2 wins and only 1 Tier 3 loss
Providence has 5 Tier 1 wins, 2 Tier 2 wins, 2 Tier 3 losses and 1 Tier 4 loss

Compared to

Houston 3 Tier 1 wins, 2 Tier 2 wins (total amount of Tier 1 & 2 wins that Providence has just in Tier 1) and a Tier 4 loss
Temple 3 Tier 1 wins, 4 Tier 2 wins, 3 Tier 3 losses and 1 Tier 4 loss

If we know anything about the committee conclusively, the committee values good wins. Clearly, Butler and Providence have those good wins and more opportunities to get them the remainder of the year. Stever if you are operating under the assumption Houston gets in the tournament, therefore you have to admit (given the facts above and the fact Butler/Providence has more opportunities for good wins for the remainder of the year) that Butler and Providence certainly will get in as well.

[stever20]

The loser of the Butler/Providence game is going to have some trouble.

Butler would need to go 2-1 vs Creighton, @ St John's, @ Seton Hall
Providence would need to go 2-3 vs Villanova, Seton Hall, @ Georgetown, @ Xavier, and St John's(basically 2-1 vs the non Nova/Xavier teams)

While Butler might be able to go 1-2 and make the tourney, really no shot for Providence to do so. Given the game between the 2 is at Butler, Providence could be in trouble. It wouldn't be all that easy quite frankly.

Butler and Providence are in better positions to make the tournament than other teams that could be on the bubble..... say Houston or Temple

Butler has 3 Tier 1 wins, 4 Tier 2 wins and only 1 Tier 3 loss
Providence has 5 Tier

If Providence goes 1-5 rest of the way, they're only 17-14. Records like that do not make the tournament ever. That's PC's problem- they didn't do enough OOC to make it comfortable for them. Eventually your record does matter. It's what Marquette has run into, and Providence and Butler could feel the same thing.

Houston has already 19 wins, and they already have 3 tier 1 wins and 2 tier 2 wins. And they have remaining 2 definite tier 1 games and 1 game that could swing between tier 1 and tier 2. They can easily get to 23-7 and yeah, they have the head to head win vs Providence that could be huge. Also, Providence while having 5 right now, has 2 of those @ St John's and @ Marqutte. It's very possible one or both of those could disappear by the end of the season if they fall out of the top 75.... Or netural vs 45 Washington could go to tier 2 if Washington dropped 6 spots. So they could go from 5 to 2 pretty easily without doing anything.

Providence at 17-14 only has a RPI of 60.3
Houston at 23-7 has a RPI of 28.9. For Houston to get to 23-7 has to go 4-2 vs Cincy, @ Temple, @ Memphis, ECU, @ SMU, and UConn. Even 3-3 should be good enough at 22-8.
Temple even at 17-13 has a RPI of 46.2. If they get to 18-12 their RPI is at 36.6. For Temple to get to 18-12 has to go 3-2 vs @ Wichita, Houston, UCF, @ Uconn, and @ Tulsa
for both Houston and Temple- if they can win their next game, they're pretty much a lock- just like Providence is quite frankly(Nova).

[Wizard of Westroads]

The loser of the Butler/Providence game is going to have some trouble.

Butler would need to go 2-1 vs Creighton, @ St John's, @ Seton Hall
Providence would need to go 2-3 vs Villanova, Seton Hall, @ Georgetown, @ Xavier, and St John's(basically 2-1 vs the non Nova/Xavier teams)

While Butler might be able to go 1-2 and make the tourney, really no shot for Providence to do so. Given the game between the 2 is at Butler, Providence could be in trouble. It wouldn't be all that easy quite frankly.

Butler and Providence are in better positions to make the tournament than other teams that could be on the bubble..... say Houston or Temple

Stever's penance for getting reinstated: surprise board members with an upbeat post.

[stever20]

what's happened now bare minimum for Butler is if they do make the tourney, their upper limit for seeding has really dropped. If they win out from here, they would finish with an RPI of around 26. That's like in the 7 seed area. Their odds of avoiding the 7-10 soup have gotten a lot worse now.

right now as of this mornings bracket matrix- so not including really Butlers loss last night...
Villanova t1-1 seed
Xavier 3- 1 seed
Creighton 24- 6 seed
Seton Hall 28- 7 seed
Butler 31- 8 seed
Providence 41- 11 seed(2nd team with a bye)

I just think this bubble is bunched up a lot closer than normal this year. So losing 5 of 6 for Providence would absolutely be a killer. Losing 3 of 4 for Butler would put them in best case probably Dayton.

[stever20]

The loser of the Butler/Providence game is going to have some trouble.

Butler would need to go 2-1 vs Creighton, @ St John's, @ Seton Hall
Providence would need to go 2-3 vs Villanova, Seton Hall, @ Georgetown, @ Xavier, and St John's(basically 2-1 vs the non Nova/Xavier teams)

While Butler might be able to go 1-2 and make the tourney, really no shot for Providence to do so. Given the game between the 2 is at Butler, Providence could be in trouble. It wouldn't be all that easy quite frankly.

Butler and Providence are in better positions to make the tournament than other teams that could be on the bubble..... say Houston or Temple

Butler has 3 Tier 1 wins, 4 Tier 2 wins and only 1 Tier 3 loss
Providence has 5 Tier

If Providence goes 1-5 rest of the way, they're only 17-14. Records like that do not make the tournament ever. That's PC's problem- they didn't do enough OOC to make it comfortable for them. Eventually your record does matter. It's what Marquette has run into, and Providence and Butler could feel the same thing.

Houston has already 19 wins, and they already have 3 tier 1 wins and 2 tier 2 wins. And they have remaining 2 definite tier 1 games and 1 game that could swing between tier 1 and tier 2. They can easily get to 23-7 and yeah, they have the head to head win vs Providence that could be huge. Also, Providence while having 5 right now, has 2 of those @ St John's and @ Marqutte. It's very possible one or both of those could disappear by the end of the season if they fall out of the top 75.... Or netural vs 45 Washington could go to tier 2 if Washington dropped 6 spots. So they could go from 5 to 2 pretty easily without doing anything.

Providence at 17-14 only has a RPI of 60.3
Houston at 23-7 has a RPI of 28.9. For Houston to get to 23-7 has to go 4-2 vs Cincy, @ Temple, @ Memphis, ECU, @ SMU, and UConn. Even 3-3 should be good enough at 22-8.
Temple even at 17-13 has a RPI of 46.2. If they get to 18-12 their RPI is at 36.6. For Temple to get to 18-12 has to go 3-2 vs @ Wichita, Houston, UCF, @ Uconn, and @ Tulsa
for both Houston and Temple- if they can win their next game, they're pretty much a lock- just like Providence is quite frankly(Nova).

well I think my last statement on this post said it all. Providence is pretty darn close to a lock now. Might need another win- wouldn't want to go in front of the committee at 17-15 in any way. But still- almost certainly in now I'd say.....