This Year So Far

[xusandy]

Seems just as likely to me that all or almost all the teams in the middle will do just barely well enough to earn dance tickets. I could see any, or even all, of Butler, St. John's, Marquette, and/or Providence getting in. I think it very unlikely that none of them would get it. Bottom Line: I see 5-8 bids, with 6-7 being a lot more likely than 5 bids or 8 bids. No matter how you slice that loaf, it's gonna be pretty tasty.

[stever20]

Seems just as likely to me that all or almost all the teams in the middle will do just barely well enough to earn dance tickets. I could see any, or even all, of Butler, St. John's, Marquette, and/or Providence getting in. I think it very unlikely that none of them would get it. Bottom Line: I see 5-8 bids, with 6-7 being a lot more likely than 5 bids or 8 bids. No matter how you slice that loaf, it's gonna be pretty tasty.

What do you think the conference standings will be?

No sub .500 team from the 5-8 group makes the tourney
Providence needs 10 wins to make the tourney

Those 2 facts limits the bids considerably

[gtmoBlue]

Espn sees ND, Creighton as power conference "Giant Killers".

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... se-trouble

[Xavier4036]

Stever, this isn't the American Athletic. Middle and bottom of conference teams do make the NCAA tournament from the Big East (last year 70% of the conference made the tournmanet) because nearly every game all Big East teams play for the rest of the year will be against a Top 100 opponent.

For some reason, it seems that this year your fixated on projected records.... and that's it. Nothing regarding the actual wins, RPI, SOS, etc. An 8-10 record in the Big East is a whole lot different than an 8-10 record in the American Athletic.

[adoraz]

Stever's argument is that the middle needs to go 9-9, and due to the top and bottom being stronger there won't many (if any) of the middle of the conference finishing 9-9.

The argument is an exaggeration though. So far DePaul and Georgetown are 0-2 vs the rest of the BE. Xavier beat Marquette as expected. Seems every year everyone hypes up the bottom as "better than before/expected" but they rarely if ever actually cost multiple teams bids.

I disagree with the record argument. SJU so far has 10 OOC wins (1 of which is D2). Let's say they beat Duke and go 8-10 in BE play. That's 19 wins, and one BET win would put them at 20. According to RPI forecast they'd be WELL within the Top 50 at that point with a win over Duke, no bad losses (aside from potentially DePaul or Georgetown), and assuming some quality wins vs ranked BE opponents. Even at 19 total wins (including the D2 game), they'd still be a bubble team due to their RPI.

SJU gets in under some circumstance finishing 8-10. I bet other middle of the pack BE teams would get in with 8-10 records and a win or two during the BET.

[stever20]

Stever, this isn't the American Athletic. Middle and bottom of conference teams do make the NCAA tournament from the Big East (last year 70% of the conference made the tournmanet) because nearly every game all Big East teams play for the rest of the year will be against a Top 100 opponent.

For some reason, it seems that this year your fixated on projected records.... and that's it. Nothing regarding the actual wins, RPI, SOS, etc. An 8-10 record in the Big East is a whole lot different than an 8-10 record in the American Athletic.

8-10 for Butler gives them 18-13 with a 51.5 RPI. That's tenuous at best.
8-10 for Marquette gives them a 17-13 record with a 61.9 RPI. That's NIT for sure unless they make final or beat Nova/Xavier in QF.
8-10 for Providence gives them a 17-14 record with a 59.1 RPI. Even them at 9-9 would be 18-13 with a 48.8 RPI. They would need a BET win to feel anything close to safe.

So realistically only one that could feel even remotely safe sub .500 is St John's. And for them, if they're at 18-12 entering the BET vs D1 teams- the BET would be huge- because it's counted as a home game, so a home loss would count 1.4 games to their own record. That would be a RPI killer for them.

At some point, your actual record does matter. 17-15 teams just don't make the tourney right now. 18-14 teams are extremely tenuous.

Also the change in the selection process will hurt the big east some. The teams that are in the 76-100 range that were tier 2 home games will now be tier 3 home games. Also for those that are in the 31-50 range, those home games are tier 2 games now. Providence and Xavier last year would have been really hurt by this change. Top 100 doesn't mean as much as it used to quite frankly with the RPI change

[stever20]

Stever's argument is that the middle needs to go 9-9, and due to the top and bottom being stronger there won't many (if any) of the middle of the conference finishing 9-9.

The argument is an exaggeration though. So far DePaul and Georgetown are 0-2 vs the rest of the BE. Xavier beat Marquette as expected. Seems every year everyone hypes up the bottom as "better than before/expected" but they rarely if ever actually cost multiple teams bids.

I disagree with the record argument. SJU so far has 10 OOC wins (1 of which is D2). Let's say they beat Duke and go 8-10 in BE play. That's 19 wins, and one BET win would put them at 20. According to RPI forecast they'd be WELL within the Top 50 at that point with a win over Duke, no bad losses (aside from potentially DePaul or Georgetown), and assuming some quality wins vs ranked BE opponents. Even at 19 total wins (including the D2 game), they'd still be a bubble team due to their RPI.

SJU gets in under some circumstance finishing 8-10. I bet other middle of the pack BE teams would get in with 8-10 records and a win or two during the BET.

You say that DePaul and Georgetown are 0-2 vs BE. That's 0-1 vs the 5-8 pack.
The 5-8 are 0-1 so far vs the top 4 pack of Nova, X, SH, and Creighton. That's just as important.

[Xavier4036]

8-10 for Butler gives them 18-13 with a 51.5 RPI. That's tenuous at best.
8-10 for Marquette gives them a 17-13 record with a 61.9 RPI. That's NIT for sure unless they make final or beat Nova/Xavier in QF.
8-10 for Providence gives them a 17-14 record with a 59.1 RPI. Even them at 9-9 would be 18-13 with a 48.8 RPI. They would need a BET win to feel anything close to safe.

So realistically only one that could feel even remotely safe sub .500 is St John's. And for them, if they're at 18-12 entering the BET vs D1 teams- the BET would be huge- because it's counted as a home game, so a home loss would count 1.4 games to their own record. That would be a RPI killer for them.

At some point, your actual record does matter. 17-15 teams just don't make the tourney right now. 18-14 teams are extremely tenuous.

You missed my point.

This year you seem to be solely fixated on records..... with absolutely no regard to the actual wins (who you beat) that constitute those records... or RPI... or SOS.... or any of the things the committee looks at.

As noted before, middle and bottom tier teams of a Top 3 conference like the Big East typically make the NCAA tournament. Again, 70% of Big East teams made the NCAA tournament last year.

Again, difficult for you to grasp, but an 8-10 record in the Big East is a lot different from an 8-10 record in the American Athletic because in the Big East you play Top 100 teams almost every game and have almost nightly opportunities for resume-building wins.

[Xavier4036]

.

Also the change in the selection process will hurt the big east some. The teams that are in the 76-100 range that were tier 2 home games will now be tier 3 home games. Also for those that are in the 31-50 range, those home games are tier 2 games now. Providence and Xavier last year would have been really hurt by this change. Top 100 doesn't mean as much as it used to quite frankly with the RPI change

So the new tiering of games will only hurt the Big East?

So is it only Big East teams that are in the 76-100 range will now be Tier 3 home games ..... or are all teams, regardless of conference affiliation, that are in the 76-100 range will now be Tier 3 home games?

[billyjack]

I just want to watch great Big East competition and fantastic talent, and let the chips fall where they may. I'm here to be entertained with exciting hard-nosed balls-out hoops, which is what the Big East provides. We have the toughest conference top to bottom, each with great fanbases and traditions and competitiveness.

I absolutely do not want to micromanage and manipulate and micro-analyze every freakin win and loss by every freakin team, over thext 3 months, the way Stever loves and wants us to do it.

Ok, no f-cking way am i going to once again let this board turn into a f-cking math problem from now til March. Especially since even if we get 7 or 8 bids, Stever will try to dismiss it anyway. So it's a never-ending loop that will never end, run by a guy who will never be satisfied with our results.

Ok, i just want to watch elite basketball, so I'm neutral unless Providence is playing. I'm neutral watching Butler play Georgetown. I'm neutral watching Villanova vs DePaul, etc.

To paraphrase what The Simpsons said about Bill James and Sabermetrics:

"Stever makes college hoops as much fun as doing your taxes".