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I've never been a big statistics guy, but his work speaks for itself. You can scroll down by region and see what the chances are that any team make the Sweet 16 and so on.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013 ... .html?_r=0

Nate Silver is leaving the New York Times and taking a position with ESPN. He is expected to contribute to Keith Olberman's new show and have a role at ABC during election years. If you haven't read book, "The Signal and the Noise", I'd highly recommend it.