Big East needs another Nova, who will it be?
Posted: Mon Feb 20, 2017 2:44 pmWith Nova clinching a fourth straight regular season title, it's clear we need a second team at the top of the league moving forward. Yes, this year there was some bad luck with Xavier and Creighton losing key pieces, but regardless it's almost March and Nova will most likely be the only team in the conversation for a Final Four appearance. What happens to the league when Nova inevitably has a down year?
So, below are the candidates. I do think that smaller schools outside the top media markets need to work a little harder to get the respect from the national media/casual fan, but generally it comes down to teams that have/need to make major noise in March.
Outside additions:
UConn: Short term, UConn is obviously a slam dunk. The debate surrounding UConn is about their long term commitment. Regardless, in terms of basketball performance and fan base size/enthusiasm, they are easily the top solution.
What it'd take: UConn and the Big East/Fox would need to reach a mutual agreement and figure out what to do with football. UConn doesn't need to prove anything on the court.
Gonzaga: Gonzaga is again ranked #1 in the AP, though still haven't broken through in March. Travel is obviously the only issue here, but it's a big one.
What it'd take: Gonzaga would likely need to win a national championship or make the Final Four to get this talk rolling. That, or the Big East/Nova has a couple down years and decide to add another flagship.
Wichita/Dayton/VCU/etc: These are the other expansion candidates, who are more practical additions than UConn/Gonzaga in most regards, but clearly a step down in terms of basketball performance. They are not currently on the same/similar level to Nova.
What it'd take: These schools could not simply be added and take on the roll of a Nova/Gonzaga/UConn. They need to first make the Final Four or better, and then sustain that success.
Within the Conference:
Xavier/Butler/Creighton: These teams are the closest in terms of performance (which is shocking frankly, thank God they were added). but they need to make some major noise in March before they're seen as a national power. They are only a few years removed from lesser conferences and are smaller Midwestern schools.
What it'd take: A couple Final Four appearances or a National Championship.
Georgetown: Four years ago we all expected Georgetown to anchor this conference. On paper, they have everything needed to be similar (or better) than Nova. On the court they haven't been close.
What it'd take: Unlike Xavier/Butler/Creighton, I don't necessarily think Georgetown needs to win a title or go to a couple Final Fours in order to be seen as a national threat. They do, however, need to perform far better on the court and win at least a couple rounds in the NCAA tournament. If they can be a top 10/25 team annually, their reputation and historical performance will make them a power again just as they were in the old Big East.
St. John's: This is my bias speaking, but I think SJU would quickly become a national power if they could actually start winning. This is due to several factors, the main one being their location/MSG. They are willing to pay the big bucks for Mullin, and I'd expect him to be here for the long haul.
What it'd take: Similar to Georgetown, I think being an original Big East power, within a major market, with a massive budget, and being a large school (BE wise) makes it so they don't need to win a national title. They do, however, need to do far far better on the court. That means being consistently in the Top 25, making the tournament more often than not and in the process making a couple runs.
Marquette/Seton Hall/PC/DePaul: To keep this from getting too repetitive, these teams all have obvious strengths/weaknesses and are all candidates.
What it'd take: Becoming consistent top 25 programs and going on some runs in March.
So who will/should it be?
I think long term, we have a lot of programs that can do this. I think the most likely are Georgetown (prestige) and Xavier (their winning ways), but I think we're still at least a couple years off from them making a March run. I don't foresee any teams making a Final Four run this year unfortunately, but it's possible we add UConn/Gonzaga during the next couple years.
My prediction:
Within the next two years: UConn is added, problem solved.
Within the next five years: Either Xavier or Georgetown also vault to the top and compliment Nova/UConn as a consistent national power.
Your thoughts?
So, below are the candidates. I do think that smaller schools outside the top media markets need to work a little harder to get the respect from the national media/casual fan, but generally it comes down to teams that have/need to make major noise in March.
Outside additions:
UConn: Short term, UConn is obviously a slam dunk. The debate surrounding UConn is about their long term commitment. Regardless, in terms of basketball performance and fan base size/enthusiasm, they are easily the top solution.
What it'd take: UConn and the Big East/Fox would need to reach a mutual agreement and figure out what to do with football. UConn doesn't need to prove anything on the court.
Gonzaga: Gonzaga is again ranked #1 in the AP, though still haven't broken through in March. Travel is obviously the only issue here, but it's a big one.
What it'd take: Gonzaga would likely need to win a national championship or make the Final Four to get this talk rolling. That, or the Big East/Nova has a couple down years and decide to add another flagship.
Wichita/Dayton/VCU/etc: These are the other expansion candidates, who are more practical additions than UConn/Gonzaga in most regards, but clearly a step down in terms of basketball performance. They are not currently on the same/similar level to Nova.
What it'd take: These schools could not simply be added and take on the roll of a Nova/Gonzaga/UConn. They need to first make the Final Four or better, and then sustain that success.
Within the Conference:
Xavier/Butler/Creighton: These teams are the closest in terms of performance (which is shocking frankly, thank God they were added). but they need to make some major noise in March before they're seen as a national power. They are only a few years removed from lesser conferences and are smaller Midwestern schools.
What it'd take: A couple Final Four appearances or a National Championship.
Georgetown: Four years ago we all expected Georgetown to anchor this conference. On paper, they have everything needed to be similar (or better) than Nova. On the court they haven't been close.
What it'd take: Unlike Xavier/Butler/Creighton, I don't necessarily think Georgetown needs to win a title or go to a couple Final Fours in order to be seen as a national threat. They do, however, need to perform far better on the court and win at least a couple rounds in the NCAA tournament. If they can be a top 10/25 team annually, their reputation and historical performance will make them a power again just as they were in the old Big East.
St. John's: This is my bias speaking, but I think SJU would quickly become a national power if they could actually start winning. This is due to several factors, the main one being their location/MSG. They are willing to pay the big bucks for Mullin, and I'd expect him to be here for the long haul.
What it'd take: Similar to Georgetown, I think being an original Big East power, within a major market, with a massive budget, and being a large school (BE wise) makes it so they don't need to win a national title. They do, however, need to do far far better on the court. That means being consistently in the Top 25, making the tournament more often than not and in the process making a couple runs.
Marquette/Seton Hall/PC/DePaul: To keep this from getting too repetitive, these teams all have obvious strengths/weaknesses and are all candidates.
What it'd take: Becoming consistent top 25 programs and going on some runs in March.
So who will/should it be?
I think long term, we have a lot of programs that can do this. I think the most likely are Georgetown (prestige) and Xavier (their winning ways), but I think we're still at least a couple years off from them making a March run. I don't foresee any teams making a Final Four run this year unfortunately, but it's possible we add UConn/Gonzaga during the next couple years.
My prediction:
Within the next two years: UConn is added, problem solved.
Within the next five years: Either Xavier or Georgetown also vault to the top and compliment Nova/UConn as a consistent national power.
Your thoughts?
