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here's with RPI forecast the current odds of bubble teams getting enough wins to make the tourney- summing the % chances of finishing with # of wins or greater from RPI forecast
Marquette 10 wins needed (RPI 19-11 is 50.9)- 47.55%
Seton Hall 9 wins needed (RPI 19-11 is 48.4)- 38.32%
Georgetown 9 wins needed (RPI 18-13 is 56.8)- 25.21%
Providence 9 wins needed (RPI 19-12 is 51.9)- 10.51%
St John's 13 wins needed (RPI 19-12 is 55.2)- 0.14% I think they could be interesting at 18-13- their RPI there would be 66.1, but even that is only a 0.65% chance of that- but hey, I'm saying there's a chance!
DePaul 0% chance to get close even(their highest % is at 16 wins only right now- and with their OOC schedule, they have no shot)

So looking right now after week 2-
Seton Hall- 9 wins needed (19-11 RPI=49.4) 51.6% +13.28% from last week
Marquette- 10 wins needed (19-11 RPI=53.7) 43.01% -4.54% from last week
Providence- 9 wins needed (19-12 RPI=54.5) 9.54% -0.97% from last week
Georgetown 9 wins needed(plus UConn) (18-13 RPI=56.1) 8.09% -17.12% from last week
St Johns fyi has only a 3.32% chance right now to finish with a winning record even. (coincidentally that would be what it takes to finish with a top 100 RPI)

stever20 wrote:So looking right now after week 2-
Seton Hall- 9 wins needed (19-11 RPI=49.4) 51.6% +13.28% from last week
Marquette- 10 wins needed (19-11 RPI=53.7) 43.01% -4.54% from last week
Providence- 9 wins needed (19-12 RPI=54.5) 9.54% -0.97% from last week
Georgetown 9 wins needed(plus UConn) (18-13 RPI=56.1) 8.09% -17.12% from last week
St Johns fyi has only a 3.32% chance right now to finish with a winning record even. (coincidentally that would be what it takes to finish with a top 100 RPI)

So beating DePaul at home jumps Seton Hall from 38% to 52%. I thought the 38% for them last week was way too low, but that jump for winning a game that their model should have had at about a 95% win doesn't make any sense.

Hall2012 wrote:

stever20 wrote:So looking right now after week 2-
Seton Hall- 9 wins needed (19-11 RPI=49.4) 51.6% +13.28% from last week
Marquette- 10 wins needed (19-11 RPI=53.7) 43.01% -4.54% from last week
Providence- 9 wins needed (19-12 RPI=54.5) 9.54% -0.97% from last week
Georgetown 9 wins needed(plus UConn) (18-13 RPI=56.1) 8.09% -17.12% from last week
St Johns fyi has only a 3.32% chance right now to finish with a winning record even. (coincidentally that would be what it takes to finish with a top 100 RPI)

So beating DePaul at home jumps Seton Hall from 38% to 52%. I thought the 38% for them last week was way too low, but that jump for winning a game that their model should have had at about a 95% win doesn't make any sense.

I think part of it is that RPI forecast uses the Sagarin predictor, and given Seton Hall won by 31, their actual ranking went up, which influenced other games. I know in KP they went up from 55 to 49 just from Saturday. Meanwhile take on the opposite side of things Georgetown. They went from being #54 in KP on Wednesday to #62 right now. So Instead of the computer looking at a matchup of 55 vs 54 it's now 49 vs 62. A pretty big difference.

so I looked quickly at Seton Hall and Marquette after last night....

Seton Hall now to get 19 wins has a 47.28% chance. 48.1 RPI with that record.
Marquette now to get 19 wins has a 51.46% chance. 54.4 RPI with that record.

So both are about 50/50 shots to get in after last night.
Providence down to a 3.47% chance of finishing with 19 wins.
Georgetown with a 13.99% chance of finishing with 18 wins.

Will be interesting to see all of these numbers after Monday night with everyone adding in 2 games between now and then.

Marquette to 19 wins- 49.69% 19-11 54.2
Seton Hall to 19 wins- 25.26% 19-11 44.5
Providence to 19 wins- 16.54% 19-12 51.6
Georgetown to 18 wins- 4.55% 18-13 50.2

so compared to after week 2-
Seton Hall gone from 51.6% to 25.26%
Marquette gone from 43.01% to 49.69%
Providence gone from 9.54% to 16.54%
Georgetown gone from 8.09% to 4.55%

Seton Hall primarily with that loss to PC really slipped this weekend. Down from 47.28 to 25.26 or 22%.

Huge chances this weekend with Marquette and Providence playing at Creighton and Villanova respectively. And even Georgetown playing at Xavier.
For Seton Hall- a complete must win. Tough to see 9 conference wins if they lose at home to St John's.

Should X be listed? lol...

Newest odds for the NCAA Tournament.

Nova - 100%
Creighton - 99%
Butler - 100%
Xavier - 92.2%
Marquette - 42.7%
Seton Hall - 30.4%
Providence 12.1%

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/

Edrick wrote:Newest odds for the NCAA Tournament.

Nova - 100%
Creighton - 99%
Butler - 100%
Xavier - 92.2%
Marquette - 42.7%
Seton Hall - 30.4%
Providence 12.1%

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/

to me, Marquette is undervalued there. they are at least 50/50 right now. Plus, and I know this is going to sound callous, they get the benefit of playing Creighton in the first game after the injury to Watson. So they may be able to steal a win that they wouldn't have gotten otherwise which could really help them a lot.

Seton Hall is I think in a lot of trouble. It wouldn't be shocking if they made it, but then again, it wouldn't be a surprise in any fashion if they missed either.

Providence is interesting. If they had beaten DePaul I'd be saying they had the best shot of the 3.

so this was before yesterday according to RPI forecast-
Marquette to finish with 19 wins- 10-8 in conference- 54.5 RPI- 73.21%
Seton Hall to finish with 19 wins- 9-9 in conference- 43.8 RPI- 26.59%
Providence to finish with 19 wins- 9-9 in conference- 54.0 RPI- 16.29%
Georgetown to finish with 18 wins- 9-9 in conference- 47.6 RPI- 4.87%

will be interesting to see Seton Hall later today when they update to take into account yesterday's win.

Marquette looking really good obviously. Looking at the RPI forecast, only 3 games left where they are underdogs- and one of those is home with Creighton which they have at 50% so really a coin flip. In Ken Pom only underdogs for 2 more games. So Marquette may be looking if they won all they are supposed to at a 22-8 type of year which would be a 28.9 RPI which would be like a 7 or 8 seed. They may graduate from this thread in a hurry.