X-man wrote:The league picks up two of Jerry Palm's "value bets" for winning it all next March. Here is the link: http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/odds-to-win-college-basketball-national-championship-five-best-value-bets/
stever20 wrote:X-man wrote:The league picks up two of Jerry Palm's "value bets" for winning it all next March. Here is the link: http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/odds-to-win-college-basketball-national-championship-five-best-value-bets/
It's actually Norlander and not Palm.
Xavier I think the line is probably being dictated based off of Myles Davis and his issues.
Creighton I get where he's going- but even he says best case would be a 4 seed. 4 seeds just don't win the tourney.
stever20 wrote:
Creighton I get where he's going- but even he says best case would be a 4 seed. 4 seeds just don't win the tourney.
4/5 seeds have made the final 4 19 times since 1985.
6 seeds or lower have made the final 4 15 times since 1985.
a lot of times it's easier for a 6 or 7 seed to win the tourney than the 4 seed. Avoid the 1 at the regional semifinal- along with that a chance that the 1 gets eliminated by someone else so you don't face the 1 seed.
In the 26 tournaments since 1985, only 4 teams seeded lower than 3 won the tourney. With only 1 since 1997.
8 Villanova
6 Kansas
4 Arizona
7 UConn
only 8 teams in the same time frame were seeded lower than 3 to make the final.
So of the 34 teams seeded lower than 3 to make the final 4, only 12 even made the title game.
stever20 wrote:I'98 on- 1 team sub 3 winning tourney out of 19 tournaments. 5.3%
stever20 wrote:I guess I've been looking at things more the last 18 years- since Arizona. Only 1 sub 3 seed winning it all since then. It's actually fairly reasonable to look at things post '97 because that's when you really started to see fewer guys staying for 3 and 4 years...
'85-'97- 3 teams sub 3 winning tourney out of 13 tournaments 23.1%
'98 on- 1 team sub 3 winning tourney out of 19 tournaments. 5.3%
Also Gumby your calculation is off- it's 4 out of 32, not 4 out of 26.
Also from '98 on- only 3 3 seeds have won the tourney since then. So a whopping 15/19 of the champions have been 1 or 2 seeds. And even from '85-97 only 1 3 seed won the tourney so 9/13 from those years were 1-2 seeds... So from '85-'16 in 32 tournaments, 24 of them have been won by 1 or 2 seeds.
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