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Got 5 games as we move to the 2/3 mark of the conference season....
Mon
7pm #252/204 St John's 0-11 7-17 @ #60/73 Georgetown 6-5 13-11- KP Geo 79-63 93%
Tue:
8pm #18/7 Xavier 9-2 21-2 @ #46/101 Creighton 6-5 15-9- KP Xavier 80-79 51%
830pm #1/1 Villanova 10-1 20-3 @ #156/152 DePaul 2-9 8-15- KP Nova 73-60 90%
Wed:
630pm #40/68 Butler 5-6 16-7 @ #30/35 Seton Hall 7-4 17-6- KP SH 78-72 70%
7pm #50/33 Providence 6-5 18-6 @ #109/107 Marquette 4-7 15-9- KP PC 71-70 53%

Huge games this week...
The 2 Wednesday night games are just gigantic. Real shot for PC to help their KP rating. And for Butler a real shot to get in pretty good shape. But Seton Hall with a win pretty much clinches a spot as long as they can beat DePaul and St John's.

Last gasp just about for Creighton. Lose this one, and pretty much it's over for them. Marquette, Georgetown as well.

I don't think its so much do or die for CU. I think we are already out of at-large contention after the three game skid. But lose tonight and we are still only two games out of third with still 6 to go. Teams ahead of us still have some tough games as well. Even if we drop this game to X, if we can win the games we are favored and sneak out one more, we could still have a great shot to finish 5 or 6 slot - and win a couple where we aren't favor could get us as high as 4th, which provides the opportunity still to get into the NIT. This is another great opportunity, but with the three game skid unfortunately, it really isn't a do or die game as far as finishing top half of the league and getting an NIT berth. With what we will have coming back and the additions for next year, getting these guys' feet wet in the NIT would be huge, IMO.

cu blujs wrote:I don't think its so much do or die for CU. I think we are already out of at-large contention after the three game skid. But lose tonight and we are still only two games out of third with still 6 to go. Teams ahead of us still have some tough games as well. Even if we drop this game to X, if we can win the games we are favored and sneak out one more, we could still have a great shot to finish 5 or 6 slot - and win a couple where we aren't favor could get us as high as 4th, which provides the opportunity still to get into the NIT. This is another great opportunity, but with the three game skid unfortunately, it really isn't a do or die game as far as finishing top half of the league and getting an NIT berth. With what we will have coming back and the additions for next year, getting these guys' feet wet in the NIT would be huge, IMO.

I think even in terms of the NIT, this is a big one. After tonight- lets say they lose tonight- 15-10. Last 6 games- @ Marquette, @ Butler, Marquette, St John's, @ PC, @ X. 2-4 is very possible. 17-14 with a poor SOS isn't even a good NIT resume. And 8-10 won't get in the top half- heck it may be a record that gets you in on Wednesday night 1st round for the BET with the tiebreakers etc.

I think Creighton is out already. Win tomorrow and we probably help secure an NIT bid....

If Marquette that played 38 great minutes against Xavier and beat Butler and Providence the first time shows up then we win. If the Marquette that lost to Depaul, blown out be Hall twice and looked star struck against Nova shows up then we lose. I can't remember a more bipolar Marquette team.

I don't usually think in terms of "what's best for the conference" in terms of particular teams winning/losing specific games, but it might help everyone if the Jays beat X tomorrow night (other than a possible dent in X's resume for a #1 seed). A win here would put the Jays in the top 100 of both KP and RPI. So previous losses to the Jays aren't as bad (Seton Hall, Butler, G'Town if they make a run here late in the season), and wins are better as they are against a top 100 team rather than a 100-200 team. Just sayin'.

And in what world is Xavier only favored by a point with a 51% win chance? I know the game is at the CLink, but wow. What has Creighton done to impress those computers? Maybe we're that good if Cole Huff is healthy (hasn't been all conference season) and shooting confidently and aggressively like he did against DePaul the other day, but if he's not on fire, it's hard to imagine how we could score enough points to beat X. It's not like we play very good defense.

I will be rooting for the Jays in this one. Although it would be tremendous if the game at the Cintas were a #1 vs. #2 matchup, I might prefer if Nova had a nice 2 game cushion to work with. Go Jays!

sciencejay wrote:I don't usually think in terms of "what's best for the conference" in terms of particular teams winning/losing specific games, but it might help everyone if the Jays beat X tomorrow night (other than a possible dent in X's resume for a #1 seed). A win here would put the Jays in the top 100 of both KP and RPI. So previous losses to the Jays aren't as bad (Seton Hall, Butler, G'Town if they make a run here late in the season), and wins are better as they are against a top 100 team rather than a 100-200 team. Just sayin'.

And in what world is Xavier only favored by a point with a 51% win chance? I know the game is at the CLink, but wow. What has Creighton done to impress those computers? Maybe we're that good if Cole Huff is healthy (hasn't been all conference season) and shooting confidently and aggressively like he did against DePaul the other day, but if he's not on fire, it's hard to imagine how we could score enough points to beat X. It's not like we play very good defense.

Vegas is on the same wavelength as KenPom. They opened as 1.5 point favorites.

I think part of Creighton/Xavier is Xavier's struggles last week. 2 games at home- only beat St John's by 7 and Marquette by 8. Just the St John's game dropped them from #12 to #18.

Seems to me that X just does what they have to in order to win. Farr in particular looks like a different player in the big games than in the not-so-big ones. Why? I dunno, but maybe it's that Coach Mack has always liked to give everyone a chunk of playing time, so in blowouts, the top 7 guys just have to know they're not going to be on the court for their usual minutes. A subconscious thought that if the score stays pretty close, I stay in? I can't really think of anything else that might cause this pattern.