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So, how many teams are we realistically looking to get into the tournament as of the end of today, 1/23/16?

Team(s) that are in:

Villanova
Xavier
Providence

Team(s) that are in but can't afford any "bad" losses:

Butler

Team(s) that are on the bubble:

Seton Hall

Team(s) that have work to do:

Creighton
Georgetown
Marquette


Seton Hall has a fantastic core of young guys, that if they stay together, will be a force to be reckoned with. They had every chance to beat Nova, and X had to bring their best to get out with a win at home. A win in either of those games and the bracketologists would have them "in".

Georgetown has all the talent in the world, and after beating my Muskies, had a chance to place themselves on the right side of the bubble with a win at UConn(L 68-62). As has been stated ad nauseam, the Hoyas NEED to consistently challenge for League and Tourney Championships every year, as they possess the most recognizable brand on the national stage, both as an elite academic and athletic (basketball) institution, IN THE BIG EAST. The frustration continues though.

While its great to see Creighton's pieces coming together as they were able to close out Butler today, the Bulldogs really needed that W. I hope and expect them to bounce back quickly. They are definitely a second week tourney team in my opinion.

I sure as hell need to get up to Omaha for a weekend game and take in the city, the campus, and of course my Muskies taking it to the Blue Jays . For todays game, I heard 17,000(sold out), not including standing room tickets being sold...it sounds like a phenomenal game day experience. This probably needs another thread, but what are some of the game day activities/rituals? While Creighton was a great addition, I think/know they will be a "fun" addition as well .

What are we realistically looking at as far as tourney bids right now? I think, at this point, we need five to save face. Four would have been acceptable if we were looking at top 4 seeds for each. That's not the case right now. Thoughts?

I still think we will get 5. If not, we probably have just a good of chance to get 4 as we do 6, it will be very tight. The key is Villanova and Xavier losing to someone other then each other.

i would remove Marquette- they are done.

winner of Creighton/Georgetown on Tuesday will be in pretty good shape. loser not out- but a lot bigger hill to climb

what stinks with Butler is they are still in- but now in the dreaded 8/9 conversation. killer trying to get to 2nd weekend. they need some wins fast or they will be bubble quickly

Jet915 wrote:I still think we will get 5. If not, we probably have just a good of chance to get 4 as we do 6, it will be very tight. The key is Villanova and Xavier losing to someone other then each other.

Good points Jet. I NEVER want to lose to anyone, especially at home. But the fact that it was to Georgetown, and that win potentially jump starting them in the right direction towards a bid, made it sting a little less. Then they follow it up with a loss to Uconn. Not a bad loss, but they can't afford any losses at this point, and the Xavier win all for naught.

Marquette is done barring a completely out of nowhere run. They are 120th in RPI.

Georgetown has 8 losses. The Xavier win will be better than virtually every other bubble team it's up against, but Syracuse and Wisconsin aren't the wins they hoped they would be. Their resume leaves a lot to be desired, and I think their remaining schedule is too difficult for them to win enough to get in.

Creighton's non-conference resume is so bad that it needs at least 12 Big East wins (including the tournament) to have a shot. Nebraska is the best win, and they have a loss to Loyola Chicago and a home loss to Arizona State.

Seton Hall has the Wichita State win with VanVleet playing. That's the only loss they have with VanVleet at full strength. I think they have the 5th-best chance to find a way.

If Butler gets to 9 wins, they'll get in. They could easily rattle off 4 straight, but that 5-game stretch from at Seton Hall to at Georgetown will be very difficult.

None of the bubble teams get Villanova at home, and I don't know if any are good enough to go on the road and beat Nova. However, Xavier travels to Creighton, Butler, Seton Hall and Georgetown. I think one of those teams will knock off Xavier and likely stamp their ticket. If they don't, the league will get 4. I don't know who the 4th will be, but someone's gotta win.

3 - 5%
4 - 45%
5 - 45%
6 - 5%

I think it is 60% 6 and 40% 5. You guys are discounting the St. Johns/ DePaul factor, where most teams are looking like they are starting with 4 wins. There are 5 teams that can qualify at 9-9, and they'll likely all get there, including Butler. Then the winner of Tuesday's Georgetown/ Creighton game will be on track as well.

If I am being honest I would probably say 55/35/10, with 10 being 7 bids.

I think the key is to just get there somehow. There is a ton of parity in college basketball this year. There really are no clear-cut unstoppable teams like some of the great UK, Florida, UNC type teams that are going to roll you from start to finish. If a team like SHU or CU or G'town can sneak in, there's no reason they can't do some damage even as a higher seed. You never know how things are going to shake out. Just make the dance and you've got a shot in every game.

Just looking:
Georgetown- needs to get to 18-13 would be a 54 RPI. 37.66% chance
Seton Hall- needs to get to 20-10 would be a 53 RPI. 45.33% chance
Butler- needs to get to 20-10 would be a 48 RPI. 79.61% chance
Creighton- needs to get to 21-10 would be a 53 RPI. 26.4% chance(so would be 12 wins)

If any of our teams are in the top 55 RPI- combined with the Ken Pom's that they have- they're in easily.

stever20 wrote:Just looking:
Georgetown- needs to get to 18-13 would be a 54 RPI. 37.66% chance
Seton Hall- needs to get to 20-10 would be a 53 RPI. 45.33% chance
Butler- needs to get to 20-10 would be a 48 RPI. 79.61% chance
Creighton- needs to get to 21-10 would be a 53 RPI. 26.4% chance(so would be 12 wins)

If any of our teams are in the top 55 RPI- combined with the Ken Pom's that they have- they're in easily.

For the 'Dawgs to get to 20-10, they have to go 7-4. This has been dissected thoroughly in Indy over the past 12 hours. With the current arrow pointing down, there are doubts. The next two games, DPU and @ Marquette, are absolutely must wins. 7-4 means sweeping the six home games and picking up one road win.

Recognize that maybe two to four mid-major leagues that could get two bids. If Monmouth doesn't win the MAAC, the league could get two bids. Same with Valpo in the Horizon, and either SD State in the Summit and/or Bill & Mary in the CAA. That's two, three or four at large bids gone from the norm. I wouldn't be comfortable with an RPI of 55, no matter what conference you play in.

HoosierPal wrote:

stever20 wrote:Just looking:
Georgetown- needs to get to 18-13 would be a 54 RPI. 37.66% chance
Seton Hall- needs to get to 20-10 would be a 53 RPI. 45.33% chance
Butler- needs to get to 20-10 would be a 48 RPI. 79.61% chance
Creighton- needs to get to 21-10 would be a 53 RPI. 26.4% chance(so would be 12 wins)

If any of our teams are in the top 55 RPI- combined with the Ken Pom's that they have- they're in easily.

For the 'Dawgs to get to 20-10, they have to go 7-4. This has been dissected thoroughly in Indy over the past 12 hours. With the current arrow pointing down, there are doubts. The next two games, DPU and @ Marquette, are absolutely must wins. 7-4 means sweeping the six home games and picking up one road win.

Recognize that maybe two to four mid-major leagues that could get two bids. If Monmouth doesn't win the MAAC, the league could get two bids. Same with Valpo in the Horizon, and either SD State in the Summit and/or Bill & Mary in the CAA. That's two, three or four at large bids gone from the norm. I wouldn't be comfortable with an RPI of 55, no matter what conference you play in.

None of those teams u mentioned are getting at-larges. Monmouth had a chance but theyve lost a couple league games already. I actually think its a good year for bubble teams. MVC is getting 2 max only if Wichita doesnt win conference tournament title. MWC is a one bid league ans A-10 is probably a 3 bid league. American is a 2 bid league as well.