Concentration of Talent

[xusandy]

FWIW, in this year of "no great teams" and "anyone can upset anyone", I just took a quick look at the entire 351 team D1 landscape to see just how far the talent has been spread. I was surprised to learn that in today's KenPom rankings, that of the 75 schools in the ACC, Big Ten, Big East, SEC, Pac 12, and Big 12 combined, only 4, yes just 4!, are ranked in the bottom half of all teams (Minnesota at #198, Boston College at #216, St. John's at #240, and Rutgers at #278.) The top eighth of all teams (top 44) includes 8 ACC schools (4 top 10!), 6 Big 12 (3 top 10), 5 Big East (2 top 10), 5 Big Ten (1 top 10), 5 Pac-12, and 5 SEC. So every one of the top 6 conferences has at least 5 really good teams, and they ALL have a truly competitive conference race (no Kentucky or Arizona or Kansas cakewalks this year.) So the talent among top teams does indeed seem to have been been spread a bit thinner.

But at the same time, only 4 teams NOT from one of the 6 conferences listed above are in the top 30 (SMU #14, St. Mary's #17, Valpo #18, and Wichita State #24.) Only 3 American teams are in the top 44 (SMU, Cincy #31, and Connecticut #37), 2 Mo Valley teams (Wichita and Evansville #41), and only one A-10 team (VCU at #34!) So the number of really good mid-majors seems to be at just about its lowest level ever, and by that criterion, the talent is getting MORE concentrated in the top programs and leagues. More talent at the top, but more spread among those fewer top teams.

[butlerguy03]

Higher level programs are recruiting better. Very few NBA talents sneak through. No longer can schools like IU rely on "we're Indiana, we get the best in Indiana" type of recruiting. It probably took 20-30 years to sink in, but it did.