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Just was looking on Ken Pom. Saw something pretty interesting...

Right now home teams are a whopping 9-10 in conference play. Right now, still pretty early in conference play- but Big East the ONLY conference in the country with a losing record for home teams.

last year- home teams were 54-36 .600. #17 of 32. to match home teams would have to go 45-26 rest of the way(.633 winning percentage)
2 years ago- 55-35 .611. #11

last year of the OBE 62-53 .607. #16

How does this play out with the selection committee?

Without knowing, I would guess that a "road win" is more significant than a "home loss".
So if PC and Butler split this year, the 2 road wins would be the better way to have it happen...?

Of those losses, which ones were unexpected (via KenPom or the spread or anything else)?

PC @ Butler
Marq @ PC
CU @ SHU

After that, I would think the other 7 were expected. An example of hollow #'s and stats not really telling the story at all. If CU beat Nova at home, and SJU beat X at home, or DePaul beat Butler at home we would have more to worry about. The only REAL shocker in those 3 losses is probably the Marq one. So nothing really to see here IMO.

GumbyDamnit! wrote:Of those losses, which ones were unexpected (via KenPom or the spread or anything else)?

PC @ Butler
Marq @ PC
CU @ SHU

After that, I would think the other 7 were expected. An example of hollow #'s and stats not really telling the story at all. If CU beat Nova at home, and SJU beat X at home, or DePaul beat Butler at home we would have more to worry about. The only REAL shocker in those 3 losses is probably the Marq one. So nothing really to see here IMO.

on face value seems realistic....
but looking you have your 3 plus Dec 30 SH @ Marq projected Marq 71-70 act SH 83-63

so that's already 4 road upsets which seems like a lot.... So home teams should be 13-8(winning pct of .619) but are 9-10.

1 big area road wins/home losses deal with is the RPI. Counts as 1.4 wins/losses compared to only 0.6.

But to billyjack's question- while RPI you have instead of 0.6 wins and 0.6 losses you have 1.4 wins and 1.4 losses(which for all of our teams would hurt the winning percentage)- it is actually a plus in that the committee does look at road records. So it may be a plus to some degree..

When I posted this, not really saying it as a negative, it's just weird that the Big East was the only conference in the country with a home losing record. Especially since the previous years even going back as far as 2002- never been lower than 56-40 from what I can tell. It'll be interesting to see if this trend continues or it's just a quirk with the schedule.

Too early to say much. You might be able to call it a trend at this point, but it hardly qualifies as a meaningful statistic right now and can change easily.

Oddly I think PC has looked better in Road and Neutral games this year, when I think about it.

It's a conspiracy. The visiting teams won all NFL wild card games last weekend, I believe.

Years ago, maybe 70's or early 80's, the NBA figured out the sweet spot for home winning percentage. They determined that around a 70% home winning provided the best attendance. Fewer home wins would discourage fans who didn't want to see their team lose, while going too high would make winning too easy like the Globetrotters. I don't know if the NBA still follows the 70% number. That's why fouls are called completely differently on the road in the NBA.

Baseball has a winning pct of around 52%, which i think is ideal.
Hockey was around 55%, not counting ties back then.
Football was more like 58%.
For me, I like when the road team actually has a decent chance to win.

ChelseaFriar wrote:Oddly I think PC has looked better in Road and Neutral games this year, when I think about it.

That's going to change tonight!

well with 40 games done now, the home teams are 18-22. Already only 14 fewer losses than last year for the home teams. Only the NEC at 18-23 is worse. One of only 4 conferences where home teams are sub .500. I guess the question to me is why? You have some great home court advantages like Xavier, PC, Creighton, Nova- but all 4 have lost home games this year in conference.