Bracket Thoughts

[xusandy]

(1) Butler is fine. Wins at Purdue and Cincy are quality wins. Losses to XU, Miami, and Providence aren't bad losses. Palm has them at a #5 seed in today's Bracket. That sounds about right for now, but obviously they could move up or down a couple of lines over the next 2 months.

(2) Cincy is fine -- #36 at KenPom this AM. Even though Palm has them among the first 4 out at present, and they do have a bad loss at Temple, plus losses at home to Butler and Iowa State -- both close games, neither a bad loss. BUT, only UCONN and SMU look to be at their level in conference, so they'll have a strong conference record, and win or lose in their tourney, they'll eventually have a strong enough resume to earn an invite to the dance, as will UCONN. For the present, I'll guesstimate a seed anywhere from 7 to 11 for both of them. However, I do think the American is looking at just 2 bids (Cincy and UCONN) unless Memphis or Houston really step up in conference. I'd say both of those teams need a solid conference record PLUS pair of upsets against the top 3 to get into the dance. SMU is now a real spoiler for their own conference this year!

(3) IMHO, the A-10 is up for grabs, but I also think those of you who predict only 1 bid for the A-10 are gonna be proven wrong. I think Dayton and GW are both headed for 4-7 seeds, and that another team (VCU, St. Joes, Rhody, or Richmond) will win enough games in conference to earn a 3rd bid. The A-10 has 6 teams currently in the top 100 at KP, so there are enough resume enhancing games there for someone to step up, and I think all of those contenders are better than Memphis or Houston in the American.

(4) Palm's latest bracket has Xavier, Nova, and Providence ALL at #2 seeds. I just hope that holds, as I don't see any of them as a #1 (unless Nova goes undefeated in league play), but I think all 3 could fall as far as a #4 or even (gulp) a #5 if they lose 2+ games -- other than to each other of course. And that's possible in this league! But even if the top 3 do get upset a couple of times and moved down a seed level or 2, we're still way ahead of last year in terms of the eventual seeds of our top teams. Butler is a shoo-in for the dance as well; Seton Hall seems pretty likely, and both Georgetown and Creighton still have decent shots at bids. Marquette's hopes are on life support, but there's enough talent there for them to sneak in; they probably would have to pull off 2 or 3 quality upsets against the top 4.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Cincy lost at home to Temple.