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looking at if a team could make the tourney at 9-9 or 8-10 right now.....
Villanova- yes/yes
Xavier- yes/yes
Providence- yes/yes
Butler- yes/?-8-10 would hinge on the Purdue game result. 18-12 projected RPI is only 69.8
Georgetown- ?/no. 9-9 would hinge on UConn result.
Marquette- no/no 20-11 (going 9-9) RPI is only 87.1.
Creighton- ?/no 9-9 would hinge on Oklahoma result.
Seton Hall- ?/no. 9-9 would hinge on Wichita result

3 seem like complete locks. Butler seems safe as well. We'll know a LOT more about the potential after this weekend.

I wasn't fair. St John's..... if they beat South Carolina. and then go 9-9 in conference play, they are 17-12. Their projected RPI at that point is a very decent 62.5. Oh, and get this. The South Carolina game isn't included in the RPI forecast for some reason. So, that would get them to 18-12 with a mid 50's RPI. win a game in the BET, and they may actually have the 5th best shot to go at 9-9 behind only Nova, X, PC, and Butler.

Does everyone have a couple non-conference games left? I know Xavier has Auburn at home before going to Wake Forest.

Edit: Never mind, I see only Seton Hall also only has two remaining. Most teams have three left, and Villanova actually has four left. There's also an imbalamce, because some teams got 4 games out of their exempt events while others only got 3.

XUFan09 wrote:Does everyone have a couple non-conference games left? I know Xavier has Auburn at home before going to Wake Forest.

Yes, but for a lot of teams, it's their weakest opponents. Nova, Butler, Georgetown, Seton Hall, Creighton, and Marquette- they are all in that boat.... best opponent in that group is #200 Delaware. With 7 teams sub 300 in the group of teams they're playing.
Xavier- still has left after this weekend- @ Wake
PC- after this weekend- has @ UMass
St John's- after this weekend- has South Carolina
DePaul- has GW

that doesn't include the Jan/Feb OOC games...

Nova @ Temple
Georgetown @ UConn
Stetson @ Marquette(another sub 300 team)

Predicting what is going to happen before one conference game occurs again?

Let me ask you this... what if Gtown hands Nova, X, PC and Butler all home losses as part of their 9-9? If all of those teams end up being Top 25 RPI teams are you going to keep Gtown out at that point? Please let them play some games first. These discussions should be February discussions not December ones. There is SO MUCH basketball left to play for EVERY team (well, except DePaul...doh!)

Creighton still has to play Oklahoma, I would not call them a weak non-conference opponent. But I do not see Creighton beating Oklahoma. I just hope they do not lose by more than 50, but if they were to win that could be a difference maker.

GumbyDamnit! wrote:Predicting what is going to happen before one conference game occurs again?

Let me ask you this... what if Gtown hands Nova, X, PC and Butler all home losses as part of their 9-9? If all of those teams end up being Top 25 RPI teams are you going to keep Gtown out at that point? Please let them play some games first. These discussions should be February discussions not December ones. There is SO MUCH basketball left to play for EVERY team (well, except DePaul...doh!)

Sorry but 17-14 teams just do not make the tourney ever any more. And they would have a 15th loss- there has NEVER been an NCAA tourney at large team with 15 losses. So no, I don't think they would make it. And they wouldn't deserve it. At some point, the record matters.

Also if Georgetown had those 4 wins- that would mean they would have gone 5-5 against the other teams in the conference. With at least 6 home losses, which are RPI daggers.

And I would say it's just as dumb as saying that 6 spots is a lock. I don't hear you criticizing those folks, now do I?

sarp wrote:Creighton still has to play Oklahoma, I would not call them a weak non-conference opponent. But I do not see Creighton beating Oklahoma. I just hope they do not lose by more than 50, but if they were to win that could be a difference maker.

I meant after this weekend the schedule for most teams is over.

GumbyDamnit! wrote:Predicting what is going to happen before one conference game occurs again?

Let me ask you this... what if Gtown hands Nova, X, PC and Butler all home losses as part of their 9-9? If all of those teams end up being Top 25 RPI teams are you going to keep Gtown out at that point? Please let them play some games first. These discussions should be February discussions not December ones. There is SO MUCH basketball left to play for EVERY team (well, except DePaul...doh!)

I don't even like discussing this in mid-season. just go out beat some good teams and build your resume. it's all numbers with stever. that's not basketball talk.

GumbyDamnit! wrote:Predicting what is going to happen before one conference game occurs again?

Let me ask you this... what if Gtown hands Nova, X, PC and Butler all home losses as part of their 9-9? If all of those teams end up being Top 25 RPI teams are you going to keep Gtown out at that point? Please let them play some games first. These discussions should be February discussions not December ones. There is SO MUCH basketball left to play for EVERY team (well, except DePaul...doh!)

stever being stever, he's got to do whatever he can to counter the national recognition that the BE is really strong this year. So he posts a way too premature NCAA tourney hopes thread and then on top of it plays the pessimistic glass half empty point of view. If so in so only goes 9-9 they won't make it. Funny if he applied the same thing to the AAC, no one in that conference could make it if they go 9-9. Not one single AAC could survive a 9-9 conference record and make the tourney. Wonder if he posted a thread like this on their board? Or any other conference board for that matter.