The Holy Land of Hoops

Here we go!!

Rank. Team. (% chance of dance). Synopsis (next game)

1. X-Men (95.02%). 9-0 with some good wins, and likely a big win this weekend. But beyond the record, the team just looks good. Complete team from the ball handling, to the scoring guards, to the front court. (v. Cincy Sat)

2. Villanova (95%). Loss against Oklahoma was ugly. Need to add some diversity to the half court offense. But Oklahoma is a top contender with a lot of experience, hopefully it will serve more as a teaching moment for Nova. Other than that one blip, things look good. (v LaSalle Sun)

3T. Butler (80%). Big win for the dogs at Cincy. Really just one bad half against Miami on their resume so far and the rest has been nice. Butler plays one of the games worth watching this weekend. (v. Tenn Sat)

3T. Georgetown (80%). Back on track with a big home win over the Orange. Hoyas looked great early in that game, Orange had no answer for the Georgetown Offense. Orange made things interesting in the second half, but Georgetown hung on for the win. One of the biggest swing games of the year so far as a loss would have had the haters hating. (v. UNC-Wilm Sat)

3T. Providence (70%). Continue to look good, but I'm knocking the dancing % down a bit because of the Bentil situation. I'm confident they will overcome whatever time he misses, but it is a big loss for what is essentially a two man team. Although it was great to see the Friars overcome the loss of their three top scorers on Wed v. former Big East Foe and current ACC cellar dweller Boston College. (v. Bryant Sat)

6. Seton Hall (35%). Still staying a float and taking care of business. Only losses are GW and Long Beach, and GW is solid enough. Couple ok wins in Ole Miss and UGA, but a lot of mediocrity on the schedule as well. Not out of it, but right now sit on the wrong side of the bubble. I have been bullish on this roster all year, and I still remain optimistic that they might put it together. (v. St. Peter's Sun)

6T. Marquette (35%). Similar to the Hall, one bad loss, an acceptable loss, and lot of whatever on their resume so far. Hoping the wins against ASU and LSU look good come March. But they are staying a float and not losing the games they are supposed to win, they appear to be developing some chemistry, so we can maintain a little optimism for Marquette. A win this weekend would really put them in the conversation as a potential 6th tournament team. A loss doesn't kill them, but as they are currently on the wrong side of the bubble it would keep them behind the 8 ball. (@ Wisconsin Sat)

8. Creighton (25%). The win against Nebraska was nice from a pride perspective, but at 6-3 they are far outside trying to look in. Have a big one left against Oklahoma that could totally salvage their mediocre OOC resume, but that's a tough game. (v. IUPUI Sat)

9. Johnnies (05%). The Fordham loss was terrible. We all knew that Mullin was starting from scratch here and expectations were very low, but those expectations are where this team is at. If they win this weekend it would be extremely nice, but haven't given much reason for optimism. (v. Syracuse Sun)

10. DePaul. (02%). Strung together 4 wins in a row. Lousy competition and two of the games were way closer than they should have been for the amount of talent DePaul puts on the floor. But at least they are winning them. Cupcake game this weekend, and then back to back games against beatable Pac 12 and Big 10 opponents. Who knows, maybe we are all posting next weekend about DePaul's 7 game win streak with a pair of Football 5 wins over the past few weeks? Or maybe we will still be posting: "DePaul is DePaul, what do you expect?" (v. UALR Sat)


And yeah, I used a few ties here. Trying to split the group of teams I have tied at 3rd is like splitting hairs at this point. All are doing well enough to feel good about making the dance, but are just a notch below the top 2 teams. And Marquette and Seton Hall are pretty similar in what they have done and their potential. Didn't feel the need to break them up. (But gun to the head I would go: 3. Butler, 4. Gtown, 5. PC (but with Bentil they would be 4), 6. SHU, 7. Marquette)

So DePaul is winning games ugly and you ding them for it, but St John's has gotten blown out to Fordham and won 48-44 against flipping Niagara- but you don't ding them? That's insane.

If you took the labels off the teams, you would NEVER have St John's over DePaul. Not in a million years.

Really looking forward to how you maintain the status quo after the losses to Virginia and Purdue coming up soon.

Is stever really nit picking that I gave St. John's a 5% chance of dancing and DePaul only a 2% chance? This guy is hilarious. Both St. John's and DePaul stink. DePaul stinks slightly worse. I do agree that DePaul is more talented than St. John's, but St. john's is better coached. Let's revisit this issue a week from Sunday.

Nova could very well lose at Virginia, and Butler could lose at Purdue. Probably both be underdogs in the games. Won't mean too much as I don't think losses to top 10 teams on the road are really causes for concern. Some people struggle with the concept that in college basketball you are allowed to lose games in the regular season. Just want to make sure those losses are to good teams and preferably away from home. Margin of victory doesn't really even matter either (not a factor in the RPI, the only metrix that counts). In 2009 Nova got blown out three times, once by Texas and a pair of 20+ pt losses in February and march. Didn't stop them from making the Final Four.

NovaBall wrote:9. Johnnies (05%). The Fordham loss was terrible. We all knew that Mullin was starting from scratch here and expectations were very low, but those expectations are where this team is at. If they win this weekend it would be extremely nice, but haven't given much reason for optimism. (v. Syracuse Sun)

This is unfair. For starters, Fordham is actually solid this year, they're 7-1.

Judging but some of your posts I'm guessing you're not a Mullin fan and I'm not sure why. St. John's is currently 6-3, with 2 losses on a neutral court against ranked teams and 1 loss on the road vs. Fordham. This is all without our point guard and highest ranked recruit, LoVett. You're right that St. John's expectations are low (picked to finish last), but how could you honestly expect SJU to do better than they are? 9 games in and no bad losses (the Fordham game as of now is certainly not a bad loss).

Seriously, how much better could their record be? Would 2 more wins be acceptable? At that point we'd be ranked.

I'd say record wise we're at the very least meeting expectations and likely surpassing them. There's no reason to be down on SJU.

Maybe you misunderstood what I said. I agree that at John's expectations were low entering the season, and they are where most if us thought they would be.

I like mullin. What gives you the I press ion I dont? I don't like Dave Leitao and the jury is still out on kevin Willard. Otherwise I like the other 8 coaches in the league.

Bentil kid can really okay for Providence. I like their team and look for them to be a tough out.

Marquette now sits at #6 by themselves with a 53% chance of dancing!!

NovaBall wrote:Maybe you misunderstood what I said. I agree that at John's expectations were low entering the season, and they are where most if us thought they would be.

I like mullin. What gives you the I press ion I dont? I don't like Dave Leitao and the jury is still out on kevin Willard. Otherwise I like the other 8 coaches in the league.

You said something along the lines of Mullin should be fired if SJU lost to some team. Forget who it was, might have been Fordham or St. Francis.

I still say we're doing better than expected. Again, we're without our most important player LoVett. We have 3 losses, 2 to teams that were ranked and 1 on the road to Fordham (7-1, 95 RPI). That was the first road game for most of our players. Further, Fordham's RPI is higher than Marquette (135) who you think is on the right side of the bubble now. Yeah yeah I know there's a lot of the season to be played and think Marquette's RPI will improve, but it still has some merit. Just disagreeing with your analysis on SJU.

EDIT: Also, SJU's RPI is higher than Marquette's (128 vs 134). I don't agree that reflects how good the teams are (Marquette is obviously better) but Marquette's schedule has been very weak (SJU SOS 135 vs Marquette at 266). You're basing your analysis on reputation rather than RPI/this year's performance.