Conference of the Americas......one-bid

[ArmyVet]

From NBC Sports.

Tourney teams
•1. SMU (11-0): The Mustangs obviously can’t play in the NCAA tournament, but they’re still the class of the league and likely a legit top-25 team. It’s a shame Nic Moore and the other seniors can’t get one more crack at the Big Dance.
•2. Cincinnati (10-3): Don’t be fooled by Cincinnati’s three losses this season. All three were tight games and they came against Butler, Xavier and Iowa State. Mick Cronin’s team is balanced and very tough defensively.
•3. UConn (8-3): The Huskies absolutely have the talent of a NCAA tournament team, but their best wins have come against Michigan and Ohio State. This next stretch without Amida Brimah will be huge for them.
•4. Tulsa (8-4): The Golden Hurricane have an experienced backcourt in Harrison and Woodard and those two alone should win Tulsa a lot of games. After a 14-4 conference mark and NIT appearance last season, Tulsa is motivated to take the next step.

[FormulaX]

Hope you don't mind if I edit this?

From NBC Sports.


•***. SMU (11-0): A real good Squad. Too Bad, They couldn't make an effort to stick to rules and be honest.

Tourney Teams
•1. Cincinnati (10-3): Don’t be fooled by Cincinnati’s three losses this season. All three were tight games and they came against Butler, Xavier (IT WAS A TIGHT GAME?) and Iowa State. Mick Cronin’s team is balanced and very tough defensively.
•2. UConn (8-3): The Huskies absolutely have the talent of a NCAA tournament team, but their best wins have come against Michigan and Ohio State. This next stretch without Amida Brimah will be huge for them.
•3. Tulsa (8-4): The Golden Hurricane have an experienced backcourt in Harrison and Woodard and those two alone should win Tulsa a lot of games. After a 14-4 conference mark and NIT appearance last season, Tulsa is motivated to take the next step.

[ArmyVet]

I didn't write it. Just copied and pasted.

[FormulaX]

I didn't write it. Just copied and pasted.

That's what I thought. I was trying to be polite. More importantly, "Thanks for serving" ArmyVet. Who is your BBall Team?

[GumbyDamnit!]

And Cincy loses at home to Temple. # 119 RPI home loss to start conference play for the league's top at large hopeful. Ouch.

Tell me again how this is a multiple bid league?

Poor, poor Bearcat Bounce. And Stever can't understand how they could have lost. KenPom clearly had this as a Cincy win. Wha' happen'd?

[Edrick]

Tell me again how this is a multiple bid league?

Its not. It's pretty clearly going to be a one-bid league.

Not only that, though, UConn's place isn't even particularly great. If they take any real losses in that bad conference slate, they'll be looking at a game to lose in First Round.

[stever20]

how about this bet....
AAC 1 bid conference, I'll take a perma ban from this site...
if not, I become unmoderated....

deal??????

[GumbyDamnit!]

Stever please explain to me the following two quotes from you here in the same thread:

so much stuff wrong here it's not funny...

1st off... the individual games do not matter. If everyone finishes 9-9, everyone would be adding in 160-160 to their opponents category, and everyone would be adding in 1280-1280 to their opponents opponents category. It wouldn't matter if Nova lost to St John's 2x and DePaul 2x, and beat X 2x and Butler 2x. It just doesn't matter.

And then this one

Bottom line for Marquette, to have any shot at a bid at 9-9, they would have to get 3-4 top 25 wins. Pretty big ask. Outside of that, they would need to get 10 or quite possibly 11 wins. Definitely can not say that if they just finish 9-9 they would automatically be in. It would have to be a very specific 9 wins...

The way I am reading these two quotes is that you first said that individual games do not matter. 9-9 is 9-9. Then you seem to agree with me that Marquette would need to win some very specific games vs the top teams in the league. So which is it? Because I don't think you even understand anything that you are presenting anymore.

[stever20]

Stever please explain to me the following two quotes from you here in the same thread:

so much stuff wrong here it's not funny...

1st off... the individual games do not matter. If everyone finishes 9-9, everyone would be adding in 160-160 to their opponents category, and everyone would be adding in 1280-1280 to their opponents opponents category. It wouldn't matter if Nova lost to St John's 2x and DePaul 2x, and beat X 2x and Butler 2x. It just doesn't matter.

And then this one

Bottom line for Marquette, to have any shot at a bid at 9-9, they would have to get 3-4 top 25 wins. Pretty big ask. Outside of that, they would need to get 10 or quite possibly 11 wins. Definitely can not say that if they just finish 9-9 they would automatically be in. It would have to be a very specific 9 wins...

The way I am reading these two quotes is that you first said that individual games do not matter. 9-9 is 9-9. Then you seem to agree with me that Marquette would need to win some very specific games vs the top teams in the league. So which is it? Because I don't think you even understand anything that you are presenting anymore.

I don't think it's going to matter- but if Marquette had the scenario you were saying- there would be a chance they could get in. A small chance. I think a big problem they would have if they got what you are saying- single wins over the big 4, that would mean they would have gone 4-4 vs those 4. It also means by definition that they would have gone 5-5 vs Seton Hall, Creighton, Georgetown, St John's, and DePaul. Assuming they sweep St John's and DePaul- it would mean they would have gone 1-5 vs Seton Hall, Creighton, and Georgetown. Especially with Creighton and Georgetown- those losses very possibly, if not probably would be outside the top 100. Also like I said, if Butler and especially PC lose games they aren't counting on, they won't be in the top 25.

Also, in terms of the actual RPI, 9-9 IS 9-9. It doesn't matter who you beat- in a double round robin conference. And Marquette has a VERY real RPI problem. I think I saw the lowest RPI to ever make the tourney at large was 75. Marquette would be around 90. That number would be a killer.

[GumbyDamnit!]

There is absolutely NO guarantee at all whatsoever that Butler or Providence will be in the final RPI top 25. Things are NOT measured as of game time, it's the ratings end of the season. In fact right now, Providence is projected to finish with a 33 RPI. So right now, Marquette is projected to have 7 games against the RPI top 25. 10 against the projected RPI top 50. So if PC is out of the top 25, they would have 3 top 25 wins in X, Nova, and Butler(who themselves could get close to being out of the top 25). Also would say for PC and Butler, both are supposed to sweep Marquette. So a loss would drop their projected record, and thus their RPI. Looking at Butler would drop them down to 23.1 and PC down to 41.9(and a sub .500 conference record).


here is what the projected RPI is supposed to be
BE- .5660
AAC- .5305
difference .0355

So that would be smaller than .0442 from last year. BE would be down by .003 and AAC would be up by .0057 from last year. Pretty big difference.

Also, a loss to #120 IS considered a bad loss. Any loss outside the top 100 is.

A few things... We cannot compare the conferences based on what you or KenPom thinks is going to happen but what has actually happened. And you are right that we don't know where PC or X or anyone else will be exactly at the end of the season. PC might be in the RPI top 10 or they may be 26 or they may be 40. We can only look at where they are now (along with X, Nova and Butler) and conclude that Marq has at least 8 more high quality games to prove themselves. A team like Cincy only has 2 more quality games left on their schedule. That is why OOC SOS is not nearly as important for Marq as it is for Cincy. Why can't you grasp that?

You also keep throwing out data points based on predictions not fact. So "projected RPI" in your response above can be replaced with "what my anus told me." KenPom told you that Cincy would beat a pedestrian Temple team on its home floor tonight. It didn't. And there are millions of other possibilities yet to unfold in the college basketball season that all will affect that RPI # in minute ways individually. We can only look at where we are today. And the RPI #'s I provided are as of today. No predictions, just facts. So as of today there is a 2.5 year pattern of the BE and the AAC going in opposite directions. That data can not be refuted by providing things that your anus told you.

Lastly, if a #120 loss is a bad loss, than Cincy or Tulsa losing to Temple (119 RPI) or UCONN (rpi 118) would be bad losses, right? Tulsa nd Cincy are closer to 100 than they are of 50, and they are the best hope of at large bids for that conference. How then can you even begin to defend them as remotely similar to a conference like the BE?