Conference Realignment Thread v. 2016

[stever20]

Just want to get your guy's input on this. Who realistically, in your opinion and maybe why, are long term candidates for BIG EAST expansion? With the next round of realignment likely in 2023-2025 who has the capacity to force the BIG EAST to talk about them?

First let me be clear, I am not in favor of expansion that this point. I think the Big East has a great thing going right now and I see no need to mess with it.

That being said, to answer your question of who has the capacity to force the BIG EAST to talk about them down the road - the only answer that comes to mind for me is St. Louis. The reason being they are the only candidate mentioned here who checks off every box that isn't fixable.

- Private School? Check.
- Urban Location? Check
- Geographic Fit? Check.
- Major media (and excellent sports) market? Check.
- Big East Quality Arena? Check.
- Untapped Market for BE? Check.

I know a lot of people don't think these things are important, but I think the sort of brotherhood this conference feels is vital to its future success and I think a lot of that stems from the similarities between all the schools. The only box SLU does not check off is the current quality of its basketball program, but that's something completely within their control. If SLU builds their basketball program up to a consistently competitive level by the time realignment discussions roll back around, they could force the BIG EAST to talk about them.

Another SLU bonus? St. Louis is FS1's best market in the country.

All other candidates that have been mentioned have flaws that they unfortunately can't do anything about, so if the Big East won't talk about them now I don't see what they could do to change that.

Gonzaga? Poor Geographic Fit
Dayton? Smaller media market, almost certain to be blocked by X
St. Joes? Philly market already covered, almost certain to be blocked by Villanova
UCONN? Large public school, rural location
VCU? Large public school
Wichita State? Large Public School, small media market

If UConn dropped their football, you know 100% certainty that they would be in instantly. Fox would insist on it. And Fox will be important to keep happy as the key for the league will to be able to keep the tv deal at least at the same level in 8 years.

[Hall2012]

Just want to get your guy's input on this. Who realistically, in your opinion and maybe why, are long term candidates for BIG EAST expansion? With the next round of realignment likely in 2023-2025 who has the capacity to force the BIG EAST to talk about them?

First let me be clear, I am not in favor of expansion that this point. I think the Big East has a great thing going right now and I see no need to mess with it.

That being said, to answer your question of who has the capacity to force the BIG EAST to talk about them down the road - the only answer that comes to mind for me is St. Louis. The reason being they are the only candidate mentioned here who checks off every box that isn't fixable.

- Private School? Check.
- Urban Location? Check
- Geographic Fit? Check.
- Major media (and excellent sports) market? Check.
- Big East Quality Arena? Check.
- Untapped Market for BE? Check.

I know a lot of people don't think these things are important, but I think the sort of brotherhood this conference feels is vital to its future success and I think a lot of that stems from the similarities between all the schools. The only box SLU does not check off is the current quality of its basketball program, but that's something completely within their control. If SLU builds their basketball program up to a consistently competitive level by the time realignment discussions roll back around, they could force the BIG EAST to talk about them.

Another SLU bonus? St. Louis is FS1's best market in the country.

All other candidates that have been mentioned have flaws that they unfortunately can't do anything about, so if the Big East won't talk about them now I don't see what they could do to change that.

Gonzaga? Poor Geographic Fit
Dayton? Smaller media market, almost certain to be blocked by X
St. Joes? Philly market already covered, almost certain to be blocked by Villanova
UCONN? Large public school, rural location
VCU? Large public school
Wichita State? Large Public School, small media market

If UConn dropped their football, you know 100% certainty that they would be in instantly. Fox would insist on it. And Fox will be important to keep happy as the key for the league will to be able to keep the tv deal at least at the same level in 8 years.

That's certainly true as they're a traditional Big East rival to many of our schools would bring a national brand that no other semi-realistic candidate can compete with. That being said, UConn won't be dropping football in the near future and I don't anticipate them dropping it in the distant future either. Playing FBS football clearly the largest obstacle for their candidacy but I didn't list it because, although unlikely, it could be changed.

[Bill Marsh]

They also have only 8 scholarship players for the year now. That might be part of it, but hey, whatever fits the narrative that they are floundering.

Not an excuse. Xavier also had 8 scholarship players, including 4 who never played a game for Xavier before - so exactly 4 returning guys from last year. Xavier isn't sitting at 3-4 with losses to Wagner and Northeastern at home. But hey, whatever fits the UConn isn't floundering narrative - they only have 8 scholarship players!

Since you're objecting to "the UConn isn't floundering narrative," I assume you're pushing "the UConn IS floundering narrative"? Correct me if I'm wrong.

I don't get the "UConn is floundering" folks. Is floundering a moment in time? Was Villanova floundering a few years ago when they had a down year before their resurgence to 3 straight BE titles and a NC?

To me floundering has to be more than a moment in time. It has to be a pattern over time. UConn went to the tournament last year and beat a good Colorado team before losing to #1 seed Kansas. This year they've brought in a top 10 recruiting class. Looking just at the past year, they hardly look like they're floundering despite a slow start this year. In the longer view, they've gone to 6 tournaments over the past decade, compiling a 17-4 record, advancing to 3 FF and winning 2 NC.

Where does the floundering narrative come from?

[GoldenWarrior11]

Where exactly is UConn going to come up with even more money (subsidies) to continue to not just fund football (especially with no one showing up to games), but to continue elevating the budget and adding to the costs? Heck, UConn couldn't even afford $5 million to buy out Bob Diaco. Are they going to charge students even more to help cover the costs (currently at $3,000)?

UConn football will disappear in the next 10 years, not because it is not deserving of being in the P5 (or any FBS conference) but because the revenue is simply not there to continue expanding the bubble. Memphis, UCF, USF, Memphis, Temple, ECU, Houston, SMU and Tulsa (one could argue Tulane with their win last week) have all surpassed UConn in AAC football. Is the school and boosters really going to pump even more money in to just beat those schools?

It's tough - fans/alumni/supporters of UConn don't want to admit it - but UConn Football won't be able to survive long-term.

[Bill Marsh]

Where exactly is UConn going to come up with even more money (subsidies) to continue to not just fund football (especially with no one showing up to games), but to continue elevating the budget and adding to the costs? Heck, UConn couldn't even afford $5 million to buy out Bob Diaco. Are they going to charge students even more to help cover the costs (currently at $3,000)?

UConn football will disappear in the next 10 years, not because it is not deserving of being in the P5 (or any FBS conference) but because the revenue is simply not there to continue expanding the bubble. Memphis, UCF, USF, Memphis, Temple, ECU, Houston, SMU and Tulsa (one could argue Tulane with their win last week) have all surpassed UConn in AAC football. Is the school and boosters really going to pump even more money in to just beat those schools?

It's tough - fans/alumni/supporters of UConn don't want to admit it - but UConn Football won't be able to survive long-term.

I don't think that's going to be decided on a message board nor by the logic of anyone's argument pro or con.

[Bill Marsh]

With ESPN losing mass amounts of subscribers, I find it hard to believe ESPN shells out more money to the AAC at the next go-around. They don't need football content (part of the B1G package, they have the ACC, they have part of the Big 12, they air select SEC games), there's no need to fill up ESPNU or ESPNEWS with AAC content. They could easily fill it with other games, and/or make similar offer to the MAC or C-USA.

So who does that leave as a network willing to shell out big money for the AAC? Fox doesn't need it. NBC offered the $1.7 million originally.

I just don't see where the AAC will be getting the revenue to keep up with the P5.

The Big East is safe because we are a power basketball conference that provides strong content over the Winter (unlike the AAC).

The AAC is in for a rude awakening at the next TV negotiation stage. Those P6 stickers on their helmets will have really helped their cause.

They're losing 25 Big Ten games(with most of those ESPN/2). They aren't adding more ACC games due to the ACC network. They aren't moving MAC games away from the mid-week games. They probably don't want anything to do with airing more Conference USA or Sun Belt games. So where oh where are they getting more games from to replace all the Big Ten games?

The Big East is safe because this is only year 4 of a 12 year deal.

I agree and if our ratings stay sub-par that won't bode well for our future. People seem to forget dollars are tied not to the quality of basketball but to the quality of entertainment. This requirement is especially true when you are a conference composed of a smaller number of schools (10) with a smaller then average enrollment.

I don't know if anyone here has seen the agreement and knows if Fox has an out based on ratings.

Excellent post.

Help me with one detail. I understand the smaller enrollment point, but what difference does the smaller number of schools in the conference make?

[Bill Marsh]

They're losing 25 Big Ten games(with most of those ESPN/2). They aren't adding more ACC games due to the ACC network. They aren't moving MAC games away from the mid-week games. They probably don't want anything to do with airing more Conference USA or Sun Belt games. So where oh where are they getting more games from to replace all the Big Ten games?

The Big East is safe because this is only year 4 of a 12 year deal.

I agree and if our ratings stay sub-par that won't bode well for our future. People seem to forget dollars are tied not to the quality of basketball but to the quality of entertainment. This requirement is especially true when you are a conference composed of a smaller number of schools (10) with a smaller then average enrollment.

I don't know if anyone here has seen the agreement and knows if Fox has an out based on ratings.

The ratings are good for FS1 when compared to other P5 CBB the station airs

I think the ratings thing is over blown as FS1 is still relatively new and will take a long time to approach even a quarter of what ESPN has in the market share

The recent deal for Fox to broadcast half the B1G games should help the BE. It will put FS1 in more households. Those are households which have more than a passing interest in the BE since 8 of 10 BE members are in B1G markets.

[billyjack]

Groundhog Day repeat comment from me:

BE fanbases go beyond just the alums and student bodies. This is very very important to understand. This is true post-BE also with UConn and Syracuse as well.

[DeltaV]

Just want to get your guy's input on this. Who realistically, in your opinion and maybe why, are long term candidates for BIG EAST expansion? With the next round of realignment likely in 2023-2025 who has the capacity to force the BIG EAST to talk about them?

First let me be clear, I am not in favor of expansion that this point. I think the Big East has a great thing going right now and I see no need to mess with it.

That being said, to answer your question of who has the capacity to force the BIG EAST to talk about them down the road - the only answer that comes to mind for me is St. Louis. The reason being they are the only candidate mentioned here who checks off every box that isn't fixable.

- Private School? Check.
- Urban Location? Check
- Geographic Fit? Check.
- Major media (and excellent sports) market? Check.
- Big East Quality Arena? Check.
- Untapped Market for BE? Check.

I know a lot of people don't think these things are important, but I think the sort of brotherhood this conference feels is vital to its future success and I think a lot of that stems from the similarities between all the schools. The only box SLU does not check off is the current quality of its basketball program, but that's something completely within their control. If SLU builds their basketball program up to a consistently competitive level by the time realignment discussions roll back around, they could force the BIG EAST to talk about them.

Another SLU bonus? St. Louis is FS1's best market in the country.

All other candidates that have been mentioned have flaws that they unfortunately can't do anything about, so if the Big East won't talk about them now I don't see what they could do to change that.

Gonzaga? Poor Geographic Fit
Dayton? Smaller media market, almost certain to be blocked by X
St. Joes? Philly market already covered, almost certain to be blocked by Villanova
UCONN? Large public school, rural location
VCU? Large public school
Wichita State? Large Public School, small media market

I know they don't get a lot of love for a number of reasons (small even compared to us, not a traditional rival, and only really got noticed when Curry was there), but I do like the idea of Davidson, especially if they started making some waves over the next 10 years in the A10. New market, still an Eastern school, and right in the heart of ACC country. There seems to be a lot of talk at times of the BIG and SEC wanting to get their fingers into North Carolina, and I'm sure it isn't because they hate trannies.

I still think we wait and see what happens from the next round of reorganization, if there is one.

[Sactowndog]

@billMarsh

Sorry for not quoting but the website doesn't seem to work on my phone. To answer your question in the number of teams:

Simple the more schools in conference, the more people with ties to the conference and team that will likely watch conference games. I will watch the MWC game between SDSU and Wyoming because Fresno is a member of the conference and because the mountain versus pacific is compelling to me. I want the front range goats to lose every time they play a west coast team.

With 10 you lose two things. 1) the raw increase in people affiliated in some manner with the league 2) the ability to have divisional rivalries that create interest. The Big East has a natural East Coast mid West split that could draw interest but you don't see. Last years Villanova Xavier game could have represented the east coast versus the Midwest standard bearer but instead it had no significance.

It would be hard to create a league with less compelling interest then the Big East if you tried. I get the city thing but even there you have nothing in Boston. People watch college for the story lines. If the want too see great basketball they will watch the NBA.