Conference Realignment Thread v. 2016

[GoldenWarrior11]

With ESPN losing mass amounts of subscribers, I find it hard to believe ESPN shells out more money to the AAC at the next go-around. They don't need football content (part of the B1G package, they have the ACC, they have part of the Big 12, they air select SEC games), there's no need to fill up ESPNU or ESPNEWS with AAC content. They could easily fill it with other games, and/or make similar offer to the MAC or C-USA.

So who does that leave as a network willing to shell out big money for the AAC? Fox doesn't need it. NBC offered the $1.7 million originally.

I just don't see where the AAC will be getting the revenue to keep up with the P5.

The Big East is safe because we are a power basketball conference that provides strong content over the Winter (unlike the AAC).

The AAC is in for a rude awakening at the next TV negotiation stage. Those P6 stickers on their helmets will have really helped their cause.

[stever20]

With ESPN losing mass amounts of subscribers, I find it hard to believe ESPN shells out more money to the AAC at the next go-around. They don't need football content (part of the B1G package, they have the ACC, they have part of the Big 12, they air select SEC games), there's no need to fill up ESPNU or ESPNEWS with AAC content. They could easily fill it with other games, and/or make similar offer to the MAC or C-USA.

So who does that leave as a network willing to shell out big money for the AAC? Fox doesn't need it. NBC offered the $1.7 million originally.

I just don't see where the AAC will be getting the revenue to keep up with the P5.

The Big East is safe because we are a power basketball conference that provides strong content over the Winter (unlike the AAC).

The AAC is in for a rude awakening at the next TV negotiation stage. Those P6 stickers on their helmets will have really helped their cause.

They're losing 25 Big Ten games(with most of those ESPN/2). They aren't adding more ACC games due to the ACC network. They aren't moving MAC games away from the mid-week games. They probably don't want anything to do with airing more Conference USA or Sun Belt games. So where oh where are they getting more games from to replace all the Big Ten games?

The Big East is safe because this is only year 4 of a 12 year deal.

[gtmoBlue]

Just want to get your guy's input on this. Who realistically, in your opinion and maybe why, are long term candidates for BIG EAST expansion? With the next round of realignment likely in 2023-2025 who has the capacity to force the BIG EAST to talk about them?

With the question framed on the basis of long-term candidates, my take is that any such candidate would come from the pool of football schools at this point (e.g. UCONN, Wake, BC, etc.).

Assuming Gonzaga is out due to logistics, there are no basketball-only schools that make the cut at this point.

Otherwise, we are in a very strong position right now and have the luxury of not even having to consider expansion.

Short term or long term, there are simply too many variables at this point to be able to absolutely pinpoint viable expansion candidates, except to note those that are obvious and unavailable, such as Notre Dame, etc.

Damn. Any true fan of the BIG EAST has to love how we are presently positioned.

[phphphonographquote]Thanks for the welcome. I've been a long time lurker...even have a Holy Land of Hoops T-shirt from 2013 or 2012 i think.

I actually read through this whole forum before posting. I agree with a lot of your points, Flyer. However, I was really thinking about not only this next media deal, which with a potential bubble about to pop in sport media money, what the BIG EAST may be considering. I actually really appreciated your more formalized points on what the BIG EAST is looking for. I was hoping to expand upon that further and maybe create a further list of inquiry on what certain schools would have to achieve in the next 5-10 years to be in that discussion and in the next 15-20 for the end of the next contract. Ill glady offer my own position too if you all would like.
phphphonograph

Posts: 2
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 2:28 pm
[/quote]

Well, well, well. Hi there phphphonograph... post away to your hearts' content. It is a bit slow right now in the non-conference portion of the schedule and this thread SHOULD have a goal of triple digit pages. FHF, Xudash, JPSchmack, Bill Marsh, the Philly guys, and many, many others have covered this series of topics ad nauseum, but go ahead and give us your take.

As for your initial questions...
More Midmajors? Nope, that window appears to have closed and the A10ers and others have missed the boat.

Longterm candidates? It seems that the onus has been/was on shortterm potential candidates - the SLU's, Dayton's, UConn's, and VCU's. Good question. Agree with Xudash that longterm would be F5 leftovers from the next round of raids or B12 implosion.

Who has the capacity to force the BIG EAST to talk about them? It has been noted by others that none of these are currently plausible... That would be ND, S'cuse, Duke, and Gonzaga. A select few F5 football also rans could also enter the realm of possibility: BC, Vandy, KU, Baylor, WF, Pitt, Iowa St.

Post away...let's see what u got? If it is more midmajors...save your digits as that boat has sailed.

[Sactowndog]

With ESPN losing mass amounts of subscribers, I find it hard to believe ESPN shells out more money to the AAC at the next go-around. They don't need football content (part of the B1G package, they have the ACC, they have part of the Big 12, they air select SEC games), there's no need to fill up ESPNU or ESPNEWS with AAC content. They could easily fill it with other games, and/or make similar offer to the MAC or C-USA.

So who does that leave as a network willing to shell out big money for the AAC? Fox doesn't need it. NBC offered the $1.7 million originally.

I just don't see where the AAC will be getting the revenue to keep up with the P5.

The Big East is safe because we are a power basketball conference that provides strong content over the Winter (unlike the AAC).

The AAC is in for a rude awakening at the next TV negotiation stage. Those P6 stickers on their helmets will have really helped their cause.

They're losing 25 Big Ten games(with most of those ESPN/2). They aren't adding more ACC games due to the ACC network. They aren't moving MAC games away from the mid-week games. They probably don't want anything to do with airing more Conference USA or Sun Belt games. So where oh where are they getting more games from to replace all the Big Ten games?

The Big East is safe because this is only year 4 of a 12 year deal.

I agree and if our ratings stay sub-par that won't bode well for our future. People seem to forget dollars are tied not to the quality of basketball but to the quality of entertainment. This requirement is especially true when you are a conference composed of a smaller number of schools (10) with a smaller then average enrollment.

I don't know if anyone here has seen the agreement and knows if Fox has an out based on ratings.

[Hoya Hoya Hoya]

With ESPN losing mass amounts of subscribers, I find it hard to believe ESPN shells out more money to the AAC at the next go-around. They don't need football content (part of the B1G package, they have the ACC, they have part of the Big 12, they air select SEC games), there's no need to fill up ESPNU or ESPNEWS with AAC content. They could easily fill it with other games, and/or make similar offer to the MAC or C-USA.

So who does that leave as a network willing to shell out big money for the AAC? Fox doesn't need it. NBC offered the $1.7 million originally.

I just don't see where the AAC will be getting the revenue to keep up with the P5.

The Big East is safe because we are a power basketball conference that provides strong content over the Winter (unlike the AAC).

The AAC is in for a rude awakening at the next TV negotiation stage. Those P6 stickers on their helmets will have really helped their cause.

They're losing 25 Big Ten games(with most of those ESPN/2). They aren't adding more ACC games due to the ACC network. They aren't moving MAC games away from the mid-week games. They probably don't want anything to do with airing more Conference USA or Sun Belt games. So where oh where are they getting more games from to replace all the Big Ten games?

The Big East is safe because this is only year 4 of a 12 year deal.

I agree and if our ratings stay sub-par that won't bode well for our future. People seem to forget dollars are tied not to the quality of basketball but to the quality of entertainment. This requirement is especially true when you are a conference composed of a smaller number of schools (10) with a smaller then average enrollment.

I don't know if anyone here has seen the agreement and knows if Fox has an out based on ratings.

The ratings are good for FS1 when compared to other P5 CBB the station airs

I think the ratings thing is over blown as FS1 is still relatively new and will take a long time to approach even a quarter of what ESPN has in the market share

[Xavier4036]

They also have only 8 scholarship players for the year now. That might be part of it, but hey, whatever fits the narrative that they are floundering.

Not an excuse. Xavier also had 8 scholarship players, including 4 who never played a game for Xavier before - so exactly 4 returning guys from last year. Xavier isn't sitting at 3-4 with losses to Wagner and Northeastern at home. But hey, whatever fits the UConn isn't floundering narrative - they only have 8 scholarship players!

[Xavier4036]

I agree and if our ratings stay sub-par that won't bode well for our future. People seem to forget dollars are tied not to the quality of basketball but to the quality of entertainment. This requirement is especially true when you are a conference composed of a smaller number of schools (10) with a smaller then average enrollment.

I don't know if anyone here has seen the agreement and knows if Fox has an out based on ratings.

When you say "we" you are you referring to?

I know it isn't the Big East because I've seen posts where you have stated "you guys" or "you"

If it's the American, then yes I agree - that conference doesn't have a bright present or a bright future in terms of performance, attendance/fan interest or ratings.

[stever20]

The ratings are good for FS1 when compared to other P5 CBB the station airs

I think the ratings thing is over blown as FS1 is still relatively new and will take a long time to approach even a quarter of what ESPN has in the market share

I didn't hear this excuse a month ago when the Cubs were on there.

[Bluejay]

I agree and if our ratings stay sub-par that won't bode well for our future. People seem to forget dollars are tied not to the quality of basketball but to the quality of entertainment. This requirement is especially true when you are a conference composed of a smaller number of schools (10) with a smaller then average enrollment.

I don't know if anyone here has seen the agreement and knows if Fox has an out based on ratings.

When you say "we" you are you referring to?

I know it isn't the Big East because I've seen posts where you have stated "you guys" or "you"

If it's the American, then yes I agree - that conference doesn't have a bright present or a bright future in terms of performance, attendance/fan interest or ratings.

I think he's a Wichita State fan...

Which means that "we" refers to the Missouri Valley...

Which means that he's 100% correct. The MVC is a disaster right now.

[Hall2012]

Just want to get your guy's input on this. Who realistically, in your opinion and maybe why, are long term candidates for BIG EAST expansion? With the next round of realignment likely in 2023-2025 who has the capacity to force the BIG EAST to talk about them?

First let me be clear, I am not in favor of expansion that this point. I think the Big East has a great thing going right now and I see no need to mess with it.

That being said, to answer your question of who has the capacity to force the BIG EAST to talk about them down the road - the only answer that comes to mind for me is St. Louis. The reason being they are the only candidate mentioned here who checks off every box that isn't fixable.

- Private School? Check.
- Urban Location? Check
- Geographic Fit? Check.
- Major media (and excellent sports) market? Check.
- Big East Quality Arena? Check.
- Untapped Market for BE? Check.

I know a lot of people don't think these things are important, but I think the sort of brotherhood this conference feels is vital to its future success and I think a lot of that stems from the similarities between all the schools. The only box SLU does not check off is the current quality of its basketball program, but that's something completely within their control. If SLU builds their basketball program up to a consistently competitive level by the time realignment discussions roll back around, they could force the BIG EAST to talk about them.

Another SLU bonus? St. Louis is FS1's best market in the country.

All other candidates that have been mentioned have flaws that they unfortunately can't do anything about, so if the Big East won't talk about them now I don't see what they could do to change that.

Gonzaga? Poor Geographic Fit
Dayton? Smaller media market, almost certain to be blocked by X
St. Joes? Philly market already covered, almost certain to be blocked by Villanova
UCONN? Large public school, rural location
VCU? Large public school
Wichita State? Large Public School, small media market