Saturday's Games 1/30

[MUPanther]

I'd be nervous if I was a Butler fan

It's only January, Butler can fix it by winning.

[stever20]

I'd be nervous if I was a Butler fan

It's only January, Butler can fix it by winning.

They can fix it but they only have 9 games left before the BET. They need 6-3 to end the season. Butler fans have every right and reason to be nervous right now. last month here's their wins- DePaul x 2, St John's. Can they turn it around? Sure. But even now in RPI forecast, they've dropped from like a 90%+ chance down to today a 45% chance.

RPI forecast also shows they're really going to need 6 wins and not 5...
6 wins- 20-10 puts them at a 52.8 RPI
5 wins- 19-11 puts them at a 65.5 RPI

I'd really say it's kind of strange to say that Butler fans shouldn't be nervous right now actually.

[billyjack]

Yes, of course stever. Everything will go wrong for the Big East and we will wind up with 0 bids. And just as you predicted the SEC dominated their challenge with the big 12 and supplanted us at 4th in the rpi. Wait...

I never said that the Big East would wind up with 0 bids. I gave a very tough scenario where only 3 bids becomes possible..... if the double round robin everyone goes 2-2. That's extremely unlikely. Even there, Seton Hall could get in still.

I see 1 scenario where 5 seems likely.

Right now I would say-
3 bids- 5% chance
4 bids- 80% chance
5 bids- 15% chance

You're trying to shift the Overton Window on the 3 bid thing. Not happening.

3 bids: 0% chance.
4 bids: 20% chance.
5 bids: 70% chance.
6 bids: 10% chance.

The 4th place team will be a virtual lock.
But either way, the winner of the 4-vs-5 game in the BET clinches a bid.

This has been repeated several times, but we should think in terms of probabilities, not possibilities.

You always present us with possibilities. Yes, mathematically, game results might possibly fall a certain way that limits the amount of bids. You're not telling us something we don't already know. But you're also asking us to push probability to the side in order for your scenario to take place.

Seton Hall at this point is a virtual lock. They can coast and get a bid. They can beome a lock with another win over PC. If they collapse that means that either Butler or Georgetown will benefit.

Georgetown this year will benefit the way UCLA did last year. The won *at* Xavier. But not only that, they beat Syracuse, and won neutral vs Wisconsin, plus they've played Duke and Maryland. Monmouth is 37, and Asheville and Radford aren't dregs at 152 and 163. Syracuse is now 42 and Wisconsin is 65. A win at PC would be a big one, and with PC's underclassmen often being Jekyll and Hyde it's a solid possibility. They have another crack at Villanova and could sweep X with a win at home.

Butler has 6 losses, but has played 5 road games. They also have favorable home games vs the midpack teams, Marquette, Creighton, Georgetown and Seton Hall. They also can gain back a home loss by winning at St John's. They're a veteran team that has dropped a bunch of close games, so i expect that to even out as the season continues.

Creighton, i haven't looked into too much, but they have Marquette twice, plus 1 vs the Johnnies and 1 at DePaul. Win those 4 and they're at 500, but i don't know where that puts them. They need to grab a couple vs the top three, but need to do a lot of work. They're a longshot.

[stever20]

Georgetown needs to get up to 18 wins though. They aren't getting in at 17-14 regular season. No 15 loss team has ever gotten in at large. You bring up UCLA. UCLA was 20-13 with a 42 Ken Pom. Georgetown right now is projected at 17-14 with a 56 Ken Pom. That's much different than UCLA last year. And the schedule gets nasty.... I don't think folks realize UCLA had that many wins last year.....

With the Round Robin with the 3 teams- there is almost no chance of 6 bids. Butler, Seton Hall, Georgetown all need too many wins and still have to play each other. Creighton is an extreme long shot. They need 7 wins to just get up to a 58 RPI. Even there tough.

I wouldn't say at all Seton Hall is a virtual lock. They need the win over Marquette. Otherwise they need to win vs DePaul, St Johns, get home wins over Georgetown and Butler, and win 1 other game. They better not be thinking they're a virtual lock lets say that.

We'll know a whole lot the next 2 weeks...
Georgetown has Butler and Seton Hall(both on the road) this week, St John's and PC next week.
Butler has Georgetown and St John's this week, Seton Hall and X next week.
Seton Hall has Marquette and Georgetown this week, Butler next week.

So by 2 weeks from now, we're going to know a lot about all 3 teams and where they stand.

Also, can't say 4th/5th BET winner will be a lock because Creighton or Marquette could get in there at 4th or 5th- and even with a win in the BET not make the tourney.

[ecasadoSBU]

Big East might be a 3 bid league....

Not in a year like this where flotsam and jetsam is prevalent everywhere. Find me better alternatives out there than Butler or Seton Hall? Their losses are coming in an extremely tough league...not against garbage like in the AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAC.

There's a lot of them... ACC has 8 teams now in the top 43 RPI. Big 12 has 6 teams in the top 22, along with 40 and 50. Pac 12 has 7 in the top 50 right now. So those 3 conferences have 23 teams looking pretty good- or 20 of the 36 at larges. SEC has 4 in the top 28 and Big Ten has 6 in the top 50 so 8 more gone. So P5 right now has 28/36 at larges. Seton Hall right now is fairly decent. Butler though there are a lot of better teams. Their RPI right now is down to 70. They are 1-5 vs RPI top 50. Only 3-5 vs RPI top 100. 2 sub 100 losses. Down to #47 in Ken Pom. It's not a great resume at all right now.

I thought you were using KP... all of the sudden you only use RPI?

[stever20]

I use both....

KP-
B12 6 in top 30
ACC 9 in top 50
P12 5 in top 50 plus 51
B10 6 in top 50
SEC 5 in top 50
so right there is 32 teams, or 27/36 at larges. Pretty close to the same as RPI was entering today.....

[ecasadoSBU]

Also, we're going to get 5 bids, like I've been saying since October.

- Villanova,
- Xavier,
- Providence.
- Butler.
- Seton Hall or Georgetown, with Creighton a longshot.

- Butler has played 6 road games and has 6 losses. They're done with PC and have only 1 each vs X and V. Their results in close games will even out by the end of February.
- Georgetown has wins over Xavier, Syracuse (who is quietly winning and climbing), and Wisconsin (who is quietly winning and climbing), and their killer ooc schedule will be rewarded.
- Seton Hall has the Wichita State win, and Georgia has been competent.

The problem is the schedule.... Butler, Seton Hall, and Georgetown have to play each other double round robin still.
Butler really has to go 3-1 in this stretch. If they lose 2x, they would still have a game with X and V- plus tough games with Creighton and Marquette. EXTERMELY dicey.
Georgetown has now 9 losses. If they lose 2x, they would have 11, with games left with X, V, and PC. plus @ Marquette. Extremely dicey as well.
Seton Hall has 6 losses total. If they lose 2x, they would have 8, with games left with PC and X. Plus Marquette. they are doable...

The worst case scenario- the ONLY way 3 bids becomes possible is if they go 2-2 with each other..

The next worst case scenario IMO is if-
one team goes 3-1
one team goes 2-2
one team goes 1-3.

The 2-2 team is in deep trouble, and the 1-3 team is as good as out(with the POSSIBLE exception of Seton Hall).

best case scenario would be
two teams go 3-1
one team goes 0-4

the 2 3-1 teams would be in great shape at that point, while the 0-4 team would be out. This may be the only scenario to get 5 teams in- save for a miraculous run by Creighton.

I'm okay with this analysis. First time I may ever agree with you. We should all absolutely hope to see two 3-1 teams for the good of the Big East. I don't know which two teams will be the ones after that double round robin... they are all as capable of pulling it off

[stever20]

You always present us with possibilities. Yes, mathematically, game results might possibly fall a certain way that limits the amount of bids. You're not telling us something we don't already know. But you're also asking us to push probability to the side in order for your scenario to take place.

If you have 3 supposedly close teams, and they play 2 games with each other- what would the most probable result be? All 3 teams winning both at home, losing both on the road. So end result all 3 teams going 2-2 in those 4 games.
look at the Ken Pom odds:
Georgetown-
56, 62 at home
31, 26 on road
Butler-
69, 59 at home
29, 38 on road
Seton Hall-
74, 71 at home
44 ,41 on road

If the split happens- you have
Georgetown with 15-11 record with 5 outstanding games. St John's, @ PC, Xavier, @ Marquette, @ Nova. Favored in 2 of the 5 games. 17-14 not enough. would be 10-8 in conference
Butler with 16-9 record with 5 outstanding games. @ St Johns, X, Creighton, @ Nova, Marquette. Favored in 3 games. 19-11 not enough would be 8-10 in conference
Seton Hall with 17-8 record with 5 outstanding games. Marquette, @ St John's, Providence, Xavier, @ DePaul. Favored in 4 games. 21-9 enough. That's why the Marquette game IMO is so huge for them because the cpu is saying they're favored at home vs PC and wouldn't want to count on that at all.