Tues 1/5 Games: MU-PC, GTown-Creighton, Butler-DePaul

[stever20]

1 thing to remember about Marquette, they still have Stetson to add to their OOC schedule. That's the #298 Stetson. That's going to ding the Marquette OOC SOS even more. RPI forecast has it right now as Creighton 286 Marquette 308- which I'll admit is the best I've seen Marquette's projected. If the gap is that close- the fact that Marquette went 11-2 will easily trump Creighton at 9-4.

[DudeAnon]

No offense to our Marquette and Creighton friends, but what a disaster day in terms of NCAA. Projections for the big east.

I feel like stever.

I'm surprised that is coming from you. But I agree. Terrible day for the Big East and the perception of its top teams

Perception is worth squat. Last 2 years we had Nova steamroll through the conference and all it proved was they weren't tested come tourney time. Y'all need to be glass half-full and realize the big dogs going down is only going to improve them come tourney time. Not too mention that 9/10 teams in this conference will put up a good fight every single night.

[Doge McDermott]

Creighton has no chance of dancing.

Care to explain? Three of our five losses were to ranked teams (#4, #3, and #16, respectively.) Arizona State isn't the dumpster fire we thought they were when we lost to them. Loyola is our only "true" bad loss at the moment.

Watching the rest of the league, I think the only team that Creighton does not legitimately have a chance of beating is Nova. I never understood why people wrote Creighton off as the top of the bottom feeders. We're solidly in the middle, and with the league talking about 4-6 bids, there is absolutely a chance that Creighton dances this year. Just gotta go out there and win.

OK, I'll bite. Blind Resume Time

Team A
1-4 vs. RPI Top 100
RPI: 105
Nonconference SOS: 264
"Bad Losses" (teams below RPI 150): 1

Team B
3-3 vs. RPI Top 100
RPI: 92
Nonconference SOS: 287
"Bad Losses" (Teams below RPI 150): 0

Team B, while they are likely not dancing with that mark, are the better team, right? No bad losses, slightly better RPI, more Top 100 matches, and only a slightly worse nonconference schedule.

Team A is Creighton. Team B is Marquette, whose nonconference schedule has been universally derided as a disaster, potentially crippling MU's tournament hopes, making the Warriors a bubble team at best.

Unfortunately for Creighton, it's not enough to just "not lose." You have to win against someone of note. At the moment, Creighton lacks a signature nonconference, and arguably lacks a signature conference win. Creighton's best win in the nonconference slate was against Nebraska. At home. Nebraska's RPI is #197. Their KenPom rating is better, but still only #149; a few spots above Nebraska-Omaha. All of Creighton's other nonconference wins were against teams below 150 in KenPom, and with RPIs over 210.

Creighton may very well be a world-beating team that can knock off some giants in the Big East this year and claim some quality conference scalps, but it's January 6 and we haven't seen it yet.

NovaBall said there is "no chance." We have at least seven games left against currently ranked opponents. Personally, I think six of those are potentially winnable. And this isn't even gtmo's blue shades territory either. We match up well against Butler and Xavier, and Providence just lost to MU, proving they aren't invincible either. CU certainly has its work cut out for them, but are they really so far out of the discussion of being among the top six teams in the conference?

As you said, it's January 6, but it is way too early to say that Creighton "has no chance of dancing."

Bolded for emphasis.

EDIT - I will say that we can revisit the "no chance" phrase after the CU-Butler game. We will have played enough basketball to know whether or not there is a chance to dance by then.

[NovaBall]

I wish I was as optimistic as some of you.

But the way I see it entering yesterday was:

4 locks, all pretty good seeds, with PC potentially nearing the top 5 soon, and Seton Hall in the 8/9 seed range. Georgetown on the wrong side of the bubble but still having a pulse.

The way I know see it is: 4 locks, all pretty good seeds and the Hall in the 8/9 seed range, but PC more in the 3/4 seed conversation than the 1/2 seed conversation. Georgetown now dead in the water and I don't see the Creighton or Marquette games really reviving their chances.



I would like to be wrong on this one. But that's just the way I see it.

[Westbrook#36]

Saying Creighton has no chance to dance is harsh, while I can understand the opinion, I somewhat disagree with it. Creighton, Marquette, and Georgetown all have long steep uphill paths to NCAA qualification. All need at least 10-8 or 11-7 BE records plus a win or two in the BET.

[TrueBlueJay]

No offense to our Marquette and Creighton friends, but what a disaster day in terms of NCAA. Projections for the big east.

I feel like stever.

Here is to hoping for 15 more disaster days in the upcoming months! Cheers!

[ChelseaFriar]

Congrats Marquette. You guys have had our number for years. Good win on the road.

PC always struggles with Marquette. If this was in Milwaukee i think it would have been a more decisive win for marquette. Oh well. need to regroup and get ready for Creighton

It's because that Austin Croshare game in 97 we're just getting revenge annually

That Croshere comment reminded me that Wojo has some extra motivation as well!:

http://articles.philly.com/1997-03-17/sports/25569412_1_jeff-capel-providence-coach-pete-gillen-duke

http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/1997-03-17/sports/9703170050_1_friars-coney-island-duke

[whiteandblue77]

Saying Creighton has no chance to dance is harsh, while I can understand the opinion, I somewhat disagree with it. Creighton, Marquette, and Georgetown all have long steep uphill paths to NCAA qualification. All need at least 10-8 or 11-7 BE records plus a win or two in the BET.

Because of a bad OOC slate Creighton would need to go 12-6 and win two in MSG. Tall order but I can dream.

[BEhomer]

it's way too early. if these upsets happened during last week of the season then yes. bad day for BE tourney projection.

but creighton looked more like a tourney team than gtown did.

and marquette. let's see what they do with this win. maybe they build on this and get themselves in the tourney.

[cu blujs]

No slate of games at this point are good or bad for the league. Marquette beating PC going to have little impact, unless PC makes a habit of losing here on out. Creighton beating GU sure as hell isn't any worse for the league than GU beating Creighton. They have virtually the same records and RPI. Both are 2-1 in the conference. Neither one is going anywhere unless it gets to 11 or 12 wins in the league, and nothing about the game impacts any of the other teams in the conference. Each outcome is only good or bad for the two teams involved. We have 15 games to go, and any of CU, GU, MU and SH will be in the conversation if they get to 12 wins.