The Gonzaga Thread... with Poll...

[Xudash]

Have we encountered three other characters along the way in this conversation yet!

[CrawfishBucket]

The Zags would make the conference more prestigious.

There are no more realistic slam dunks out there in realignment. Only that one.

If they can justify their addition with increased revenue I just don't see why there would be dissent. Make them a conference mate and simply don't schedule anyone from far away OOC in the other sports.

[_lh]

Bill,

I'm glad we agree on your first paragraph above but in keeping with the Bob Dylan theme, just because schools have not dropped football for the last 4 decades does not mean programs won't start to with all of the changes coming down the road.

Xavier had football and others had football until Title IX and other factors made many schools dump football. Cord cutting and TV deal being restructured due to less money going around may force some to seriously consider dumping football if they are not in a P5 or P4 conference.

I doubt Kansas will dump football because I think if OU and Texas leave, the B12 will remain on by adding in the top AAC schools. The new B12 might not be P5 but it will suffice for those in that new conference to keep football.

Lets say that OU and OSU join the SEC and Texas and Texas Tech join the PAC. I don't see the B10 wanting any of the other 8 B12 schools. I can see where these 8 stay as the B12 and add in say Houston, BYU, UC and SMU or Memphis. Guess who is left out? UNCONN. Does UCONN with no real football tradition, no viable options for a decent football conference think long and hard about dumping football and re-joining the BE? I think so.

Now this may be a long, long shot but the BE can wait for it to happen as they are good with the 10 they have as we established in your paragraph one above.

[Bill Marsh]

Bill,

I'm glad we agree on your first paragraph above but in keeping with the Bob Dylan theme, just because schools have not dropped football for the last 4 decades does not mean programs won't start to with all of the changes coming down the road.

Xavier had football and others had football until Title IX and other factors made many schools dump football. Cord cutting and TV deal being restructured due to less money going around may force some to seriously consider dumping football if they are not in a P5 or P4 conference.

I doubt Kansas will dump football because I think if OU and Texas leave, the B12 will remain on by adding in the top AAC schools. The new B12 might not be P5 but it will suffice for those in that new conference to keep football.

Lets say that OU and OSU join the SEC and Texas and Texas Tech join the PAC. I don't see the B10 wanting any of the other 8 B12 schools. I can see where these 8 stay as the B12 and add in say Houston, BYU, UC and SMU or Memphis. Guess who is left out? UNCONN. Does UCONN with no real football tradition, no viable options for a decent football conference think long and hard about dumping football and re-joining the BE? I think so.

Now this may be a long, long shot but the BE can wait for it to happen as they are good with the 10 they have as we established in your paragraph one above.

I like your style, but UConn is not dropping football. They've been playing the sport since the 19th century. Unless America joins the rest of the world and becomes soccer-mad, football is here to stay in Storrs.

With regard to your scenario, the loss of OU, OSU, TX, & TT would bring the Big 12 down to 6, not 8. They'd still have West Virginia out on an island although a little less so with the addition of Cincy. UConn is too big a brand for them not to take them - especially if their football is on the upswing as it likely will be. They will need UConn to get up to 12 and to have another member in the Eastern time zone for the Mountaineers.

The bigger factor is that Notre Dame is merited to the ACC. It's only a matter of time before the old alumni who want to maintain independence die off and the realities of modern college football force the issue so that the Irish include their football in the ACC. At that point, they need #16. UConn is the natural fit

[GoldenWarrior11]

I like your style, but UConn is not dropping football. They've been playing the sport since the 19th century. Unless America joins the rest of the world and becomes soccer-mad, football is here to stay in Storrs.

With regard to your scenario, the loss of OU, OSU, TX, & TT would bring the Big 12 down to 6, not 8. They'd still have West Virginia out on an island although a little less so with the addition of Cincy. UConn is too big a brand for them not to take them - especially if their football is on the upswing as it likely will be. They will need UConn to get up to 12 and to have another member in the Eastern time zone for the Mountaineers.

The bigger factor is that Notre Dame is merited to the ACC. It's only a matter of time before the old alumni who want to maintain independence die off and the realities of modern college football force the issue so that the Irish include their football in the ACC. At that point, they need #16. UConn is the natural fit

UConn may not have a choice, Bill. UConn needs the P5 in order to survive long-term. It is currently treading water in the American. Playing against Tulsa, Tulane, Houston, SMU, UCF, USF and East Carolina - long-term - is not feasible. Attendance has been down. The results on the field have been down. The only single year where UConn made national noise in football was when they finished in a tie for first (with two other teams), got trounced in the Fiesta Bowl, and didn't get any fans to go to the game. Pasqualoni set the team back several years, and Diaco set it back even further. On top of all of that, the administration had to wait a certain time frame until after the season in order to pay Diaco's buyout.

If the ACC gets ND as a full-member (I think unlikely, but let's say it happens), I would actually think that either Temple/Cincinnati would be higher on the expansion list than UConn. Football is a big part of realignment, and UConn has demonstrated it cannot be consistently competitive (only consistently down). It is not in a great recruiting area either. Temple (Philadelphia) or Cincinnati (Ohio) would present greater market/recruiting areas, IMO.

[Xudash]

An overlay of pertinent data would be so beneficial to this discussion.

Dollars. Fiscal reality.

Where does UCONN stand with respect to its Big East break-up subsidy money?

How heavily subsidized is the program today from student fees - non-athletic funding?

What fiscal standing is the State of Connecticut in? As far as that goes, what is the leverage position of UCONN football v. other highly visible funding demands in the state; where does UCONN football rank with respect to funding priorities in actuality and politically?

There are no absolute these or those. Material change can hit anything or anyone. Life cycle theory exists for a reason.

In my opinion, UCONN will fight tooth and nail to retain football at the highest level. Must it ultimately find itself among the chosen few'ish ("P5") in order to to be successful and sustainable? Absolutely. That much we do know. There are P5 members that are sustainable because they're in the club - and they're sustainable even though their ledgers don't look all that spiffy. Yet they have little reason to believe they'll be successful at the highest level. Never say never, as I implied before, but I doubt the AD at Indiana believes that his football program is going to blitzkrieg Ohio State or Michigan any time soon.

With that noted, what is UCONN's path to P5 salvation? I'm asking, because I don't see one. And if this football thing ever does go to a 4 x 16 format, it's game, set, match on UCONN's aspirations as a viable football platform.

[Bill Marsh]

An overlay of pertinent data would be so beneficial to this discussion.

Dollars. Fiscal reality.

Where does UCONN stand with respect to its Big East break-up subsidy money?

How heavily subsidized is the program today from student fees - non-athletic funding?

What fiscal standing is the State of Connecticut in? As far as that goes, what is the leverage position of UCONN football v. other highly visible funding demands in the state; where does UCONN football rank with respect to funding priorities in actuality and politically?

There are no absolute these or those. Material change can hit anything or anyone. Life cycle theory exists for a reason.

In my opinion, UCONN will fight tooth and nail to retain football at the highest level. Must it ultimately find itself among the chosen few'ish ("P5") in order to to be successful and sustainable? Absolutely. That much we do know. There are P5 members that are sustainable because they're in the club - and they're sustainable even though their ledgers don't look all that spiffy. Yet they have little reason to believe they'll be successful at the highest level. Never say never, as I implied before, but I doubt the AD at Indiana believes that his football program is going to blitzkrieg Ohio State or Michigan any time soon.

With that noted, what is UCONN's path to P5 salvation? I'm asking, because I don't see one. And if this football thing ever does go to a 4 x 16 format, it's game, set, match on UCONN's aspirations as a viable football platform.

I'm not a big believer in 4 x 16, Dash, but speaking hypothetically that it happens, how does that hurt UConn? It only helps as far as I can see.

[Xudash]

Bill,

I agree about the 4 x 16 model, but, including Notre Dame, I believe the existing P5 total comes to 65. They would have to subtract a Wake or BC as it is to get to 64.

I don't see UCONN jumping any existing P5 school in that scenario.

Again, it probably doesn't happen that way anyway.

[Bill Marsh]

Bill,

I agree about the 4 x 16 model, but, including Notre Dame, I believe the existing P5 total comes to 65. They would have to subtract a Wake or BC as it is to get to 64.

I don't see UCONN jumping any existing P5 school in that scenario.

Again, it probably doesn't happen that way anyway.

I may be wrong, but here's my thinking on it, Dash.

1. To get to 4 x 64, one of the current F5 conferences is going to collapse. For the sake of the discussion, let's say it's the Big XII.

2. Texas and Oklahoma are in a whole different category than everyone else in the Big XII. So, if we add them to what will now be the F4, includin Notre Dame, we now have 4 x 57 with 7 remaining spots. That means that the 8 remaining members of the Big XII are now on equal footing with AAC schools like UConn, Cincy, Memphis, etc.

3. Obviously UConn's football and attendance will have to be better the time that happens, but I think they'll be happy to take their chances in that situation. Who's going to want Iowa State? Anyone want both KU and K State from a state with a population of 3million? What about OK State, the 2nd school from a state of 4 million? As we saw with Rutgers and Maryland, markets matter and redundancy in a small population state is not desirable. Even West Virginia will be scrambling in this scenario.

[Xudash]

Bill,

I agree about the 4 x 16 model, but, including Notre Dame, I believe the existing P5 total comes to 65. They would have to subtract a Wake or BC as it is to get to 64.

I don't see UCONN jumping any existing P5 school in that scenario.

Again, it probably doesn't happen that way anyway.

I may be wrong, but here's my thinking on it, Dash.

1. To get to 4 x 64, one of the current F5 conferences is going to collapse. For the sake of the discussion, let's say it's the Big XII.

2. Texas and Oklahoma are in a whole different category than everyone else in the Big XII. So, if we add them to what will now be the F4, includin Notre Dame, we now have 4 x 57 with 7 remaining spots. That means that the 8 remaining members of the Big XII are now on equal footing with AAC schools like UConn, Cincy, Memphis, etc.

3. Obviously UConn's football and attendance will have to be better the time that happens, but I think they'll be happy to take their chances in that situation. Who's going to want Iowa State? Anyone want both KU and K State from a state with a population of 3million? What about OK State, the 2nd school from a state of 4 million? As we saw with Rutgers and Maryland, markets matter and redundancy in a small population state is not desirable. Even West Virginia will be scrambling in this scenario.

Bill,

I can't argue with your line of thinking. Of course, the Big XII would have to find a way to technically implode to get that ball rolling.

Otherwise, it would seem that it would almost be all about how such a structure makes it to the negotiating table if it makes it there at all.

Do the P5 conferences meet to hammer that format out, assuming the Big XII is still alive at the point when they want to fuss about this? On the other hand, do the power players in the sport essentially extract themselves from their conferences for purposes of putting that structure together? Do Ohio State, Michigan and Whisky tell the B1G that they're still members, but that they have to go over here to talk about something for a while? Do Alabama, Florida, UGA, etc. join them from the SEC? Do FSU, Clemson, Miami, etc. join them from the ACC? And so on, and so forth. If such a dialogue were allowed, then I suspect your scenario could play itself out as well.

B1G = 14. SEC = 14. ACC = 14. PAC = 12. Total = 54 + ND + UT and OU to equal your 57.

Regardless, of how it happens if it happens, the legal fees will be impressive.