Is there a July 1 deadline to add Dayton or SLU?

[BillEsq]

Pretty slanted view. Would you rather have a team that played in back to back national title games but doesn't sell out every night or one that sells out but rarely makes the NCAA tournament? The writer prefers the latter whereas every other informed person would prefer the former.

both...

seriously though.. its a dead issue the BE will move to 12 when it moves to 12 for the sake of those of the 11&12 persuasion hopefully sooner than later. However the time arguing over media size, numbers of NCAA appearances, and what 5 year period puts your team in the best light has passed. I suggest we all just ignore that ummm... post...

[BEX]

Doubt Fox will pony up another 100 mill by 7/1.

[BillEsq]

Doubt Fox will pony up another 100 mill by 7/1.

0% chance Fox will add more money to the deal by 7/1
0% chance Slu or Dayton (or anyone else) will be added for the 2013-2014 season league schedules are already out.
10% chance and falling of Slu/ Dayton being added prior to 7/1 for the 2014-2013 season. (only incentive to do so would be to lower costs exit fees for Slu/ Dayton
50% chance Slu or Dayton get added latter in the season for 2014-2015 or another year. quite possible the million saved will actually be mostly off set by lower travel expenses.
50% chance Bellermine gets added at end of year for Lacrosse ECAC is a dead conference at the end of 2014 spring.
20% chance fox ponies up any more money. That ship might have sailed. Again no real loss as the value of adding 2 more teams actually balances up with lost media revenue.

Final numbers 100% chance the BE either adds teams or does not add teams.

[yorost]

Doubt Fox will pony up another 100 mill by 7/1.

20% chance fox ponies up any more money. That ship might have sailed. Again no real loss as the value of adding 2 more teams actually balances up with lost media revenue.

Seeing as the contract in place has always been rumored as Fox agreeing to temporarily let them stand at 10, I don't know why you think this percent is so low. If Fox wants 12, and we've never heard otherwise, they will have to make it worthwhile for the conference to expand. It would hardly shock me if the contract didn't require expansion to 12 by a certain season, with something like a pool of schools and minimum increase. If it were up in the air as to Fox adding to the pot, why do we get so many strong hints 12 is coming?

[DumpsterFireA10]

Doubt Fox will pony up another 100 mill by 7/1.

20% chance fox ponies up any more money. That ship might have sailed. Again no real loss as the value of adding 2 more teams actually balances up with lost media revenue.

Seeing as the contract in place has always been rumored as Fox agreeing to temporarily let them stand at 10, I don't know why you think this percent is so low. If Fox wants 12, and we've never heard otherwise, they will have to make it worthwhile for the conference to expand. It would hardly shock me if the contract didn't require expansion to 12 by a certain season, with something like a pool of schools and minimum increase. If it were up in the air as to Fox adding to the pot, why do we get so many strong hints 12 is coming?

I'd be inclined to agree with you that 12 is coming, except for the fact that I don't believe it myself. The key is getting teams into every arena every year (the point of 10). Once that happens, I think the chance of expansion drops exponentially from there.

Would love to see SLU in the Big East, but that ship looks like it may have sailed.

[BillEsq]

Doubt Fox will pony up another 100 mill by 7/1.

20% chance fox ponies up any more money. That ship might have sailed. Again no real loss as the value of adding 2 more teams actually balances up with lost media revenue.

Seeing as the contract in place has always been rumored as Fox agreeing to temporarily let them stand at 10, I don't know why you think this percent is so low. If Fox wants 12, and we've never heard otherwise, they will have to make it worthwhile for the conference to expand. It would hardly shock me if the contract didn't require expansion to 12 by a certain season, with something like a pool of schools and minimum increase. If it were up in the air as to Fox adding to the pot, why do we get so many strong hints 12 is coming?

LOL well you could be right, more of a gut feeling on my part. don't get me wrong i'd prefer the other but since i have no contract to quote i went the pessimistic way.

However i am standing by my 100% guarantee that the league either will or will not expand. Although i think it more likely than not that they will go to 12. But hell i've been wrong before.

[yorost]

I must confess, I don't see how you feel 12 is more likely and also have a gut feeling Fox won't be willing to add money to the pot for more teams.

I just don't see a reason for Fox to have changed its mind already on 10 vs 12. If they land another quality conference down the road, sure, but right now the Big East adding teams is Fox's best in to getting more content further up the basketball food chain. We're going to be the only multi-bid conference they dominate the rights to for at least a few years, right? Who all, of note, has contracts coming up in the next 3-4 years?

[BillEsq]

I must confess, I don't see how you feel 12 is more likely and also have a gut feeling Fox won't be willing to add money to the pot for more teams.

I just don't see a reason for Fox to have changed its mind already on 10 vs 12. If they land another quality conference down the road, sure, but right now the Big East adding teams is Fox's best in to getting more content further up the basketball food chain. We're going to be the only multi-bid conference they dominate the rights to for at least a few years, right? Who all, of note, has contracts coming up in the next 3-4 years?

Not many- and ESPN might have contracts with a right to match any offer. As far as minor conferences... they are worth pennies and they will not find any other available free agent conference worth as much as the BE. I think the A-10 the next best brings in a whopping $350,000 per team.

As far as my logic i don't know my oatmeal is actually upset with me as well. I have no explanation for my thoughts lol.

[DumpsterFireA10]

Mike DeCourcy does not agree with those of us who don't think the BE is going past 10.
*disclaimer that it's one person's twitter post, but it's better than "you're screwed, get used to it".

Michael DeCourcy ‏@tsnmike 7h

@ateague If I were inclined/allowed to gamble on it, would bet a bunch Ash will not play in A-10. (Achraf Yacoubou is Ash).

[BEX]

Ten is good. I love 10. Ten forever. 18 home and away. Perfect.