Next Year.

[adoraz]

So, next year is probably going to be yet another year where we have only 2 teams in the preseason AP Top 25. Nova and *random team*. Our league has outperformed the AP preseason poll every single year, but there will eventually be a down year.

Fortunately Nova won the title, because outside of Nova I am not that optimistic about next year. Sure, we'll probably get 5+ teams into the tournament again, but how many of them will make noise? I could see Nova as a 1/2 seed, another team as a 4 seed, and then several 8-11.

To me, it looks like all the teams outside of DePaul and possibly Georgetown should be at least GOOD. As in, good enough to maybe make the tournament but not title contenders (outside of Nova). Then again, every year I feel this way and typically the regular season ends up surpassing me expectations. Shocked we got two #1 seeds this year.

As for the Tournament, the only thing people really remember is who won, so huge thanks to Nova there. Really, nobody outside of hardcore enthusiasts care about or remember the early exit for the rest of the teams. It'd be amazing if another team could step up, but the BE's Tournament performance is a strength rather than a weakness (thanks to Nova).

All that said, bottom line for next year, I just want SJU to make the Tournament. Don't get me wrong, I'll be rooting very hard for all BE teams in November/December/March. But, obviously as a SJU fan, the BE is already so strong that I'd take 3 teams making the Tournament (1 being SJU) rather than 9 teams making it (SJU excluded). Had this been year 1 or 2 and I was given those two scenarios, I would've went with the option better for the league as that'd help SJU long term.

Basically, next year might be a down year, but the BE will be just fine long term. Can't say the same for SJU, we absolutely need a big year.

[stever20]

So, next year is probably going to be yet another year where we have only 2 teams in the preseason AP Top 25. Nova and *random team*. Our league has outperformed the AP preseason poll every single year, but there will eventually be a down year.

Fortunately Nova won the title, because outside of Nova I am not that optimistic about next year. Sure, we'll probably get 5+ teams into the tournament again, but how many of them will make noise? I could see Nova as a 1/2 seed, another team as a 4 seed, and then several 8-11.

To me, it looks like all the teams outside of DePaul and possibly Georgetown should be at least GOOD. As in, good enough to maybe make the tournament but not title contenders (outside of Nova). Then again, every year I feel this way and typically the regular season ends up surpassing me expectations. Shocked we got two #1 seeds this year.

As for the Tournament, the only thing people really remember is who won, so huge thanks to Nova there. Really, nobody outside of hardcore enthusiasts care about or remember the early exit for the rest of the teams. It'd be amazing if another team could step up, but the BE's Tournament performance is a strength rather than a weakness (thanks to Nova).

All that said, bottom line for next year, I just want SJU to make the Tournament. Don't get me wrong, I'll be rooting very hard for all BE teams in November/December/March. But, obviously as a SJU fan, the BE is already so strong that I'd take 3 teams making the Tournament (1 being SJU) rather than 9 teams making it (SJU excluded). Had this been year 1 or 2 and I was given those two scenarios, I would've went with the option better for the league as that'd help SJU long term.

Basically, next year might be a down year, but the BE will be just fine long term. Can't say the same for SJU, we absolutely need a big year.

looking at the claim about AP poll with the Big East Outperforming. Big East preseason this year AP had Nova at 6, Xavier at 17, and Seton Hall at 23. Providence was 30 and Butler was 34. Final AP poll pre tourney had Nova 2, Xavier 3, Seton Hall 31, Creighton 33. So 1 fewer ranked team, 1 fewer team overall balances Nova being 4 spots better and Xavier being 15 spots better. Pretty darn close to being a wash.

I do agree with you on the point about the tournament. Nova has really saved the leagues bacon in the tourney last 3 years. The leagues perception is what it is 100% due to Nova right now. You can say all you want about regular season- but March/April is what counts, and Nova has stepped up to the plate and then some.

Next year IMO is a crucial year for St John's and Marquette. Make or break years for coaches who've been around for 4 and 5 years respectively. I'd say it's also a big year for Seton Hall. What happens now for them?

[gtmoBlue]

So, next year is probably going to be yet another year where we have only 2 teams in the preseason AP Top 25. Nova and *random team*. Our league has outperformed the AP preseason poll every single year, but there will eventually be a down year.

Fortunately Nova won the title, because outside of Nova I am not that optimistic about next year. Sure, we'll probably get 5+ teams into the tournament again, but how many of them will make noise? I could see Nova as a 1/2 seed, another team as a 4 seed, and then several 8-11.

To me, it looks like all the teams outside of DePaul and possibly Georgetown should be at least GOOD. As in, good enough to maybe make the tournament but not title contenders (outside of Nova). Then again, every year I feel this way and typically the regular season ends up surpassing me expectations. Shocked we got two #1 seeds this year.

As for the Tournament, the only thing people really remember is who won, so huge thanks to Nova there. Really, nobody outside of hardcore enthusiasts care about or remember the early exit for the rest of the teams. It'd be amazing if another team could step up, but the BE's Tournament performance is a strength rather than a weakness (thanks to Nova).

All that said, bottom line for next year, I just want SJU to make the Tournament. Don't get me wrong, I'll be rooting very hard for all BE teams in November/December/March. But, obviously as a SJU fan, the BE is already so strong that I'd take 3 teams making the Tournament (1 being SJU) rather than 9 teams making it (SJU excluded). Had this been year 1 or 2 and I was given those two scenarios, I would've went with the option better for the league as that'd help SJU long term.

Basically, next year might be a down year, but the BE will be just fine long term. Can't say the same for SJU, we absolutely need a big year.

So what's it gonna be... a down year or another 5 bid year? So you're saying 2 good seeds and 3 others who are expected to lose...in the dance?

If it's a down year then we can expect 3 bids...? The top 2 teams and one bubble team sneaking in. Let's just say the pollsters are correct: Nova top 10, Marquette in the mid 20's, and one of the several 9-9 to 7-11 folks sneaking into the dance. Folks better steal some non-conf wins or be resigned to watch television in March. It's a bit early to tell, let's just say Nova, Marq, & Prov go dancing. Seeded 2, 7, & 9/11, in order. Nova should SS/EE, Marq could SS , and Prov does 2 & out at best. 8 Credits. 3 bids/8 credits, yep a "down" year.

I don't see it that way. The top tier will be excellent Creighton, Nova, & whomever - they will challenge and stay Top 25 all year. 4 or 5 teams will have exceptional non conference records. The battles will be for 4-6 in conference and it will be bloody. 18+ Ws & 9-9 in conference will sneak bubble bids.

[kayako]

If it's a down year then we can expect 3 bids...?

Even if it's a down year, I doubt it'll be worse than the inaugural season (4 bids). That was an uncertain time with the conference implosion.

[cu blujs]

BE will be fine. Teams will step up for any team that drops down a bit. Of course, if our conference RPI isn't #1 or #2, ESPN will be all over it being the beginning of the end of the BE as a power conference. I doubt Nova will fall off much (hoping for a little bit, of course). X drops off some, but they are already reloading. Providence steps up, Butler should be back up there. Marquette will certainly miss Rowsey, but they always seem to have some new thorn in the side step up. St. Johns should be better, as will SH and Georgetown, IMO. So, our top might not be two #1 seeds, but I think our middle seeds will be higher next year. Creighton will be as good, IMO. We may lose Marcus' 20 points per game, but I think we also move back to being a little more team oriented than we were this past season when there were to many games where the fellas seemed to be waiting at times for Marcus to do something. I expect our overall three point shooting to be better and assuming Krampelj is back, he and Epperson will be a good inside combination - along with a couple of the new guys. Our big question mark remains PG. If our Zegarowski and/or Campbell can step up into that role, we can move Davion out to the two, where I think he belongs. He, Alexander and Ballock will be a very good trio to play the 2/3 position if Khyri does go pro. If Khyri stays, those four will be as good a group of four wings to cover the 2 and 3 spots (and sometimes 2 - 4 spots) as anyone in the league, IMO.

[butlerguy03]

It will be a down year, but the Big East will still get 5, maybe 6 in the dance. Comes down to OOC play.

[NJRedman]

Way too early projections

1) Nova
2) Marquette
3) Creighton
4) Providence
5) Georgetown
6) Xavier
7) Butler
8) Seton Hall
9) St. John's
10) DePaul

Will definitely change a lot between now and the start of the season.

Really I think it's

Nova

Everyone else

Seton Hall, St. John's, DePaul

Georgetown 5, thats cute.

[adoraz]

So what's it gonna be... a down year or another 5 bid year? So you're saying 2 good seeds and 3 others who are expected to lose...in the dance?

In the post I mentioned 5 bids with a #1/2 seed, a #4 seed, and several #8-11. That'd be a down year. The Big East is already very high, so the down years shouldn't be that bad. But the last few years we've gotten 6-7 bids, so 5 bids with that seeding would definitely be a step down but acceptable and wouldn't impact the BE narrative long term. A down year means being 4th/6 in P6 RPI.

If we have a year like the PAC 12 (I think 3 seeds were all eliminated from the Tournament day 1), then that'd be a big cause for concern and we'd rightfully get a lot of negative attention for it. I doubt that happens, though, because that'd be a massive drop.

[stever20]

So what's it gonna be... a down year or another 5 bid year? So you're saying 2 good seeds and 3 others who are expected to lose...in the dance?

In the post I mentioned 5 bids with a #1/2 seed, a #4 seed, and several #8-11. That'd be a down year. The Big East is already very high, so the down years shouldn't be that bad. But the last few years we've gotten 6-7 bids, so 5 bids with that seeding would definitely be a step down but acceptable and wouldn't impact the BE narrative long term. A down year means being 4th/6 in P6 RPI.

If we have a year like the PAC 12 (I think 3 seeds were all eliminated from the Tournament day 1), then that'd be a big cause for concern and we'd rightfully get a lot of negative attention for it. I doubt that happens, though, because that'd be a massive drop.

why do you have to say P6 RPI? That's just dumb as hell. RPI is done for all conferences. Any conference is eligible to be in the top 5 in RPI. Also this year, there was a small gap between 1-4 in RPI. Like a .0045 gap. That's nothing. Like probably only 2-3 games different and Big East would have been 4 this year. Like say Butler loses to Ohio St in that comeback game, that by itself could have put the Big East at #4. You say that's just 1 game. True, but it would have been counted 20 times over.

Also, I don't think folks pay all that much attention to conference RPI quite frankly. They do pay attention to the teams getting in the tourney with the seedings. If Lunardi's projection was right- with a 1/6/8/10/10/11(2nd team in)- that'd be viewed as a down year.

[DudeAnon]

Nova, Marquette and Providence should be tourney locks.

After that, at least 1 and likely more of the remaining will step up and earn a bid.