(3) Wed. Big East Games 2/1/17

[stever20]

looking at Ken Pom, they're raw favorites in 5 of the 8 games. It's more like 4-3-1, as 1 of the games they're projected to win is at 50%.

realistically though, they have 2 games at 77% or better in their favor. They have 1 game at 30%(@ Xavier). The other 5 games are 52,46,56,49,50. Really pick'em type of games. They win those, they're in. They lose them, they're out.

[Bill Marsh]

Yep, Stever's usual go-to is totally ignore RPI and act as if KenPom is the gold standard that the NCAA Committee uses for selection and seeding.

But in this case, since Marquette's KenPom is 37 - he of course goes worst case scenario with Big East - and decides to use RPI - and projected RPI at that. And makes no mention of what Marquette's SOS will be (currently 65) as if that doesn't even matter but talks about "projected" OOC SOS of 200+ like that alone is going to keep Marquette out of the dance.

His act is old. Worst case scenarios for Big East and best case scenarios for American.

Marquette definitely has not helped itself with losses to St Johns and home against Providence..... but the back half of their schedule is pretty favorable. They should be fine for tournament as long as they pull out a couple more wins and don't drop a loss to DePaul or St John's

Agree re Maquette's prospects. The St John's loss will hurt RPI, but their wins over Butler and over Providence and Syracuse on the road over the past 6 weeks have shown that they're a team on the rise and that on any given night, they can win against anyone but the truly elite.

[stever20]

Yep, Stever's usual go-to is totally ignore RPI and act as if KenPom is the gold standard that the NCAA Committee uses for selection and seeding.

But in this case, since Marquette's KenPom is 37 - he of course goes worst case scenario with Big East - and decides to use RPI - and projected RPI at that. And makes no mention of what Marquette's SOS will be (currently 65) as if that doesn't even matter but talks about "projected" OOC SOS of 200+ like that alone is going to keep Marquette out of the dance.

His act is old. Worst case scenarios for Big East and best case scenarios for American.

Marquette definitely has not helped itself with losses to St Johns and home against Providence..... but the back half of their schedule is pretty favorable. They should be fine for tournament as long as they pull out a couple more wins and don't drop a loss to DePaul or St John's

The committee didn't use Ken Pom anywhere near as much last year as they had in prior years. Wichita St a prime example. They were #12 last year in Ken Pom, and that got them a first four date in Dayton. So I haven't used Ken Pom as much this year.

Marquette will be totally sweating bullets if they finish 9-9 and drop 1st round BET game. 18-13 with a RPI in the 70's and a bad OOC SOS isn't a recipe for a tourney spot.

Oh, and it's actually worse right now- look at the team sheets...
https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/St ... Sheets.pdf

Marquette is #68 in RPI. with the #270 OOC SOS. When you have a schedule like that, you get dinged. They would be really smart to not leave it in the hands of the committee.

[Hall2012]

Marquette's been taking some wild RPI swings. In the past 2 weeks they've gone from Seton Hall's worst loss, up to 2nd best win, and now back to worst loss.

[stever20]

Marquette's been taking some wild RPI swings. In the past 2 weeks they've gone from Seton Hall's worst loss, up to 2nd best win, and now back to worst loss.

yeah-
Current 68
Sunday 54
Sun 1/22 53
Sun 1/15 74

Just crazy there. Within 6 spots of where they were 17 days ago, but what a roller coaster.

[Xavier4036]

Yep, Stever's usual go-to is totally ignore RPI and act as if KenPom is the gold standard that the NCAA Committee uses for selection and seeding.

But in this case, since Marquette's KenPom is 37 - he of course goes worst case scenario with Big East - and decides to use RPI - and projected RPI at that. And makes no mention of what Marquette's SOS will be (currently 65) as if that doesn't even matter but talks about "projected" OOC SOS of 200+ like that alone is going to keep Marquette out of the dance.

His act is old. Worst case scenarios for Big East and best case scenarios for American.

Marquette definitely has not helped itself with losses to St Johns and home against Providence..... but the back half of their schedule is pretty favorable. They should be fine for tournament as long as they pull out a couple more wins and don't drop a loss to DePaul or St John's

The committee didn't use Ken Pom anywhere near as much last year as they had in prior years. Wichita St a prime example. They were #12 last year in Ken Pom, and that got them a first four date in Dayton. So I haven't used Ken Pom as much this year.

Marquette will be totally sweating bullets if they finish 9-9 and drop 1st round BET game. 18-13 with a RPI in the 70's and a bad OOC SOS isn't a recipe for a tourney spot.

Oh, and it's actually worse right now- look at the team sheets...
https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/St ... Sheets.pdf

Marquette is #68 in RPI. with the #270 OOC SOS. When you have a schedule like that, you get dinged. They would be really smart to not leave it in the hands of the committee.

That just isn't true Stever. There are no alternative facts here on this board.

You have been almost exclusively discussing KenPom this year. In fact, as recently as Tuesday January 31, you scolded Hall2012 for NOT including KenPom in his blind resumes and said "you left out a HUGE part to the puzzle"

So when we are talking Marquette who has a KenPom of 37 - it's "the committee didn't use Ken Pom anywhere near as much last year as they had in prior years...so I haven't used Ken Pom as much this year" but when it's any other team, KenPom is a "HUGE part to the puzzle"

Which one is it Stever?

[Xavier4036]

Also, I don't understand why Marquette's OOC SOS is soooo bad. Are their buy games just THAT bad?

They played Michigan, Pitt and Vandy all neutral, Wisconsin at home and at Georgia. I know all of those teams except Wisconsin are having down years but a couple are still bubble teams and 4/5 were away or neutral.

[stever20]

Yep, Stever's usual go-to is totally ignore RPI and act as if KenPom is the gold standard that the NCAA Committee uses for selection and seeding.

But in this case, since Marquette's KenPom is 37 - he of course goes worst case scenario with Big East - and decides to use RPI - and projected RPI at that. And makes no mention of what Marquette's SOS will be (currently 65) as if that doesn't even matter but talks about "projected" OOC SOS of 200+ like that alone is going to keep Marquette out of the dance.

His act is old. Worst case scenarios for Big East and best case scenarios for American.

Marquette definitely has not helped itself with losses to St Johns and home against Providence..... but the back half of their schedule is pretty favorable. They should be fine for tournament as long as they pull out a couple more wins and don't drop a loss to DePaul or St John's

The committee didn't use Ken Pom anywhere near as much last year as they had in prior years. Wichita St a prime example. They were #12 last year in Ken Pom, and that got them a first four date in Dayton. So I haven't used Ken Pom as much this year.

Marquette will be totally sweating bullets if they finish 9-9 and drop 1st round BET game. 18-13 with a RPI in the 70's and a bad OOC SOS isn't a recipe for a tourney spot.

Oh, and it's actually worse right now- look at the team sheets...
https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/St ... Sheets.pdf

Marquette is #68 in RPI. with the #270 OOC SOS. When you have a schedule like that, you get dinged. They would be really smart to not leave it in the hands of the committee.

That just isn't true Stever. There are no alternative facts here on this board.

You have been almost exclusively discussing KenPom this year. In fact, as recently as Tuesday January 31, you scolded Hall2012 for NOT including KenPom in his blind resumes and said "you left out a HUGE part to the puzzle"

So when we are talking Marquette who has a KenPom of 37 - it's "the committee didn't use Ken Pom anywhere near as much last year as they had in prior years...so I haven't used Ken Pom as much this year" but when it's any other team, KenPom is a "HUGE part to the puzzle"

Which one is it Stever?

The thing is I really haven't used Ken Pom as much. When you're doing a blind resume like that, it's something that you have to put. It can easily be a tie breaker. with last years committee, having a good RPI meant more than a good KP. Let's see this year.

[DudeAnon]

I think alot of times the C7 schools take for granted the level of competition in the league. People talk about St. John's and Providence losses are resume killers. Currently they have RPI's of 134 and 66. Not only that but they have a decent amount of brand weight. We may not have blue blood programs that are given every pass imaginable, but we also don't have any schools which are truly seen as season killing losses.

[stever20]

Also, I don't understand why Marquette's OOC SOS is soooo bad. Are their buy games just THAT bad?

They played Michigan, Pitt and Vandy all neutral, Wisconsin at home and at Georgia. I know all of those teams except Wisconsin are having down years but a couple are still bubble teams and 4/5 were away or neutral.

Just looking 6 games at RPI of 230 or worse for Marquette out of 12 games..... Wisconsin at #19, and then 4 teams in that 48-64 range. and 1 team Fresno at #105.

I think part of the problem for Marquette is those 4 mid range teams- have poor records. Vandy 11-11, Michigan 14-8, Pitt 12-10, and Georgia at 12-9.