Big East Conference Realignment v2018

[scoscox]

I just don't believe that UConn or any other school can increase revenue in the current landscape/10 equals real value.

I am in the "let uconn suffer a while longer" party...

A. Until they are forced to give up football.
B. Let our eastern schools gain competitive advantage over them, or close the gap in some cases.

But the next TV deal & MSG renewal does concern me. If we're gonna stay pat at 10, with 10 smallish alumni bases, it's in our best interest to establish a bigger eastcoast corridor presence, and maybe one of the midwest teams can start looking like Gonzaga.

Xavier’s about as close to Gonzaga as you can possibly get

[EMT]

I just don't believe that UConn or any other school can increase revenue in the current landscape/10 equals real value.

I am in the "let uconn suffer a while longer" party...

A. Until they are forced to give up football.
B. Let our eastern schools gain competitive advantage over them, or close the gap in some cases.

But the next TV deal & MSG renewal does concern me. If we're gonna stay pat at 10, with 10 smallish alumni bases, it's in our best interest to establish a bigger eastcoast corridor presence, and maybe one of the midwest teams can start looking like Gonzaga.

Not worried about MSG as no other league will commit to every year.

[kayako]

Xavier’s about as close to Gonzaga as you can possibly get

I think so, too. But for whatever reason, Gonzaga is the media darling.

[kayako]

Not worried about MSG as no other league will commit to every year.

ACC won't commit to Brooklyn every year, but the MSG is a different animal. B1G doesn't like having to hold the conference tournament a week early, but we can't be sure if they are not waiting to displace us.

[scoscox]

Xavier’s about as close to Gonzaga as you can possibly get

I think so, too. But for whatever reason, Gonzaga is the media darling.

Yea that’s something I’ve always kind of wondered about. Maybe something to do with sharing our market with uc and having louisville, osu, iu, and uk all so close and Gonzaga is the only thing in that area.

As far as msg, the big tens Midwest roots I think are too deep and strong to commit to making that play I think just based on the feedback it got this year. Also, I think delany said they wouldn’t try to do it again or something like that after the tournament this year. I think the acc is the biggest threat but we still hold some advantages over them namely that our northeast schools are better and more relevant to the conference.

[Bill Marsh]

Xavier’s about as close to Gonzaga as you can possibly get

I think so, too. But for whatever reason, Gonzaga is the media darling.

Timing in life is everything. Gonzaga became everyone’s favorite Cinderella pick in their brackets right around the time that picking brackets was becoming big time and going beyond just the office pool. They didn’t just become a media darling, they established themselves with repeated success in the tournament as an underdog.

1999 - Cameout of nowhere to advance to the Elite 8. As a 10-seed, knocked off 7-seed Minnesota from the Big 10 before pulling a shocker by upsetting 2-seed Stanford. Then they beat 6-seed Florida out of the SEC before taking 1-seed and eventual NC UConn down to the wire. All power conference teams.

2000 - Again a 10-seed, beat 7-seed Louisville, one of the biggest names in college basketball history. Then pulled another shocker by beating 2-seed St. John’s before losing in the Sweet 16 to 6-seed Purdue.

2001 - This time a 12-seed, they beat 5-seed Virginia. After beating Indiana State, they lost again in the Sweet 16, this time to 1-seed Michigan State, the defending NCs.

So, they arrived with a big splash by getting to the Elite 8 and reinforced that arrival by making it 3 straight trips to the ?Sweet 16. Is it any surprise that fans scouring the brackets for potential upset winners began to ask, “what do you think Gonzaga will do this year?” I know I did.

Gonzaga continued to be a household name as a potential upset winner by getting back to the tournament for literally 20 years and continuing to get to Sweet 16s every few years. They wisely capitalized on their good fortune by adopting a play anyone/any time/any place posture. They scheduled a few games each year against name schools and the networks loved the ?David vs Goliath drama.

Part of Gonzaga’s charm is that they had previously been a nobody from a nowhere conference, the ultimate Cinderella. Loyola will get the same treatment if they are able to put together a string of successful tournaments to follow up their Final 4. And unlike Gonzaga, they actually have an period of big time success pre-UCLA era in their history.

I think it’s no surprise that Gonzaga established themselves as a “media darling”. It’s not like the media created them. In contrast, Xavier came out of a much stronger Atlantic Ten when they went to the Elite 8 in 2004. They had a great player in David West and #1 St. Joe’s came out of the same conference while also advancing to the Elite 8 that year before barely missing the Final 4. Xavier wasn’t the Cinderella surprise that Gonzaga was and they didn’t follow it up by getting to the tournament every single year after as Gonzaga did.

Xavier is now a power player in the Big East. They get the power conference treatment. The charm of Gonzaga is precisely because they are not from a power conference. They are a curiosity. Everyone wonders how far they can go and just how long they can keep it up. Just as thy might if Loyola keeps it up or if someone like Siena did the same thing coming out of the MAAC, the East Coast’s version of what the WCC used to be.

[Bill Marsh]

I just don't believe that UConn or any other school can increase revenue in the current landscape/10 equals real value.

I am in the "let uconn suffer a while longer" party...

A. Until they are forced to give up football.
B. Let our eastern schools gain competitive advantage over them, or close the gap in some cases.

But the next TV deal & MSG renewal does concern me. If we're gonna stay pat at 10, with 10 smallish alumni bases, it's in our best interest to establish a bigger eastcoast corridor presence, and maybe one of the midwest teams can start looking like Gonzaga.

I don’t think a big alumni base is necessary in all circumstances. Notre Dame draws 80,000 fans to every home football game and gets huge TV ratings, sufficient to justify their own TV contract for football with NBC. They don’t have an enrollment any bigger than most Big East schools. With a similar enrollment, Duke is to college basketball what Notre Dame is to college football.

The Big East originally emerged to fill a void in a part of the country where state universities were a non-factor in college basketball but where college basketball had great tradition and great interest. Big East schools don’t draw the attendance they do in big arenas from just their alumni bases. As long as they can live up to their claims of being big time, they draw fans who love college basketball, especially among alums of other Catholic colleges whose alma maters haven’t been so fortunate. Given that the Catholic college circuit is an incestuous affair, many non-BE Catholic college alums have family members who are. The Big East continues to fill that void in many of its cities.

As a conference, the Big East continues to make headlines and demand attention. Villanova is currently the top program in the country. Xavier, Marquette, and Butler have all gotten at least to the Elite 8 within the past decade. Seton Hall and Providence have both won Big East tournaments.

I don’t think the Big East needs UConn to command attention or to boost ratings. In fact, adding UConn would to some extent water down the conference’s identity. Frankly, Gonzaga would go further in enhancing the keague’s appeal than UConn would. Or a revitalized St. Louis, Loyola, or Dayton. But ultimately its about what Fox or some other network thinks is needed. If they think another member or two is needed to boost ratings or to add inventory, then the Big East will expand. And Fox will have a lot of say in who the expansion candidates would be. If Fox wants UConn and makes a contract renewal conditional on that, then the BE will probably add UConn.

[GoldenWarrior11]

I wouldn't worry about the ACC or B1G permanently infringing on MSG/NYC. Both conferences added local programs (Rutgers/Syracuse) in order to get a piece of the NY pie, not the entire serving of it. The B1G is still very much Midwestern-based, which is why its upcoming basketball tournaments are returning to the Chicago/Indianapolis rotation and why its B1G Championship is still in Indianapolis. I would not be shocked to see their football championship played on rotation basis at the new U.S. Bank Stadium (since it is also indoors). With regards to the ACC, it is still driven and led by its Tobacco Road contingent (UNC/Duke/NCST/WF). They held their tournament at Barclays as a welcome favor to the Syracuse/Pitt/ND/UL grouping, attempting to show them that the ACC can be as good - and even better - than the old Big East. Despite their conference's success, it still lacks the same star appeal and perception of the original Big East. Their tournament venues are once again returning to North Carolina - where it belongs.

I am confident that our next TV contract, without any new added members, would slightly go up (possibly to $5-$6 million per team per year) at a shorter duration (8-10 years). The reality is that the Big East still carries - even in reorganization - an elite name in men's basketball. It's conference tournament is one of the biggest and best sporting events in the world's best city over several days. Every single program in the conference is devoted and driven towards the top level of college men's basketball. By the time our next deal is up for renegotiation, programs like Georgetown/St. Johns/DePaul will have (hopefully) made on-court improvements and appearances/runs in the NCAA Tournament. If that were to occur, especially in our Chicago/New York City/Washington D.C. market, the increase to our already strong brand and national perception would only increase.

Having said that, I am also confident that Fox will want us to add inventory and content in order to get more immediate value for their spending. While ratings have not directly competed with ESPN (which was not a realistic immediate goal, but rather a long-term one), the ratings have steadily improved and increased each and every season. If they had to big one potential and available program to make a run at in order to increase viewership, it would absolutely and 100% be UConn. This does not take into account what they would obviously do with football, but that is another topic entirely.

The more realistic targets are Saint Louis and Dayton. While Dayton is currently in the midst of a rebuild, Saint Louis and Travis Ford have quietly assembled several very strong and high-ranked recruiting classes. They very much are projected to be a top-team in the A-10 next year. If they can catch lightning in a bottle, they immediately become a strong target for #11 - which would keep the round-robin and add a very strong media market with a like-minded institution.

Longer-term, do not immediately discount Loyola. If DePaul Men's Basketball continues to struggle - which is a very long-term problem for them - and Loyola continues to steal the hearts and eyes of not-only Chicago and the whole nation, then the decision to add another program in Chicago becomes very interesting. Loyola has higher-ranked ranked academics, more students, more alumni - and recently - a much more successful men's basketball program. They are also recruiting Chicago much better than DePaul. The old Big East kicked out Temple Football for its non-competitiveness, attendance, and its inability to compete in the conference for similar standings/performance. It would be hard not to wonder - if DePaul leadership remains committed to keeping tenured administrators - if the same discussions wouldn't be brought up at some point again.

[stever20]

Xavier has missed the tourney twice since 2004 only. 2005 and 2013.

It's a really interesting comparison between Gonzaga and Xavier. I frankly thought prior to 2015 that Gonzaga had been really overrated- still living mainly off of 1999. After that initial 3 year run, they made it back to the sweet 16 only twice from 2002 thru 2014- with 3 times as a top 4 seed losing in the 2nd round of the tourney. Their biggest tournament picture thru those years was Adam Morrison balling his eyes out after losing to UCLA in 2006 in the sweet 16. Thought in 2014 you could make the case that Xavier was better than Gonzaga in the tourney- and I think back then they were viewed as being pretty much equals. I think some of the media darling part is just from the last 4 years(especially last year making the title game- finally making it to the final 4).

I do think the one thing that's hurt Xavier in relation to Gonzaga perception wise is the coaching turnover. Gonzaga thru their run has had 2 coaches. Xavier thru their run is getting set to start #4.

For last 5 years-
Gonzaga has 12 wins in tourney, 4 sweet 16, 1 final 4
Xavier 7 wins in tourney, 2 sweet 16

So I can see what Kayako was saying when he was saying maybe one of the midwestern teams can start looking like Gonzaga.

[Bill Marsh]

I wouldn't worry about the ACC or B1G permanently infringing on MSG/NYC. Both conferences added local programs (Rutgers/Syracuse) in order to get a piece of the NY pie, not the entire serving of it. The B1G is still very much Midwestern-based, which is why its upcoming basketball tournaments are returning to the Chicago/Indianapolis rotation and why its B1G Championship is still in Indianapolis. I would not be shocked to see their football championship played on rotation basis at the new U.S. Bank Stadium (since it is also indoors). With regards to the ACC, it is still driven and led by its Tobacco Road contingent (UNC/Duke/NCST/WF). They held their tournament at Barclays as a welcome favor to the Syracuse/Pitt/ND/UL grouping, attempting to show them that the ACC can be as good - and even better - than the old Big East. Despite their conference's success, it still lacks the same star appeal and perception of the original Big East. Their tournament venues are once again returning to North Carolina - where it belongs.

I am confident that our next TV contract, without any new added members, would slightly go up (possibly to $5-$6 million per team per year) at a shorter duration (8-10 years). The reality is that the Big East still carries - even in reorganization - an elite name in men's basketball. It's conference tournament is one of the biggest and best sporting events in the world's best city over several days. Every single program in the conference is devoted and driven towards the top level of college men's basketball. By the time our next deal is up for renegotiation, programs like Georgetown/St. Johns/DePaul will have (hopefully) made on-court improvements and appearances/runs in the NCAA Tournament. If that were to occur, especially in our Chicago/New York City/Washington D.C. market, the increase to our already strong brand and national perception would only increase.

Having said that, I am also confident that Fox will want us to add inventory and content in order to get more immediate value for their spending. While ratings have not directly competed with ESPN (which was not a realistic immediate goal, but rather a long-term one), the ratings have steadily improved and increased each and every season. If they had to big one potential and available program to make a run at in order to increase viewership, it would absolutely and 100% be UConn. This does not take into account what they would obviously do with football, but that is another topic entirely.

The more realistic targets are Saint Louis and Dayton. While Dayton is currently in the midst of a rebuild, Saint Louis and Travis Ford have quietly assembled several very strong and high-ranked recruiting classes. They very much are projected to be a top-team in the A-10 next year. If they can catch lightning in a bottle, they immediately become a strong target for #11 - which would keep the round-robin and add a very strong media market with a like-minded institution.

Longer-term, do not immediately discount Loyola. If DePaul Men's Basketball continues to struggle - which is a very long-term problem for them - and Loyola continues to steal the hearts and eyes of not-only Chicago and the whole nation, then the decision to add another program in Chicago becomes very interesting. Loyola has higher-ranked ranked academics, more students, more alumni - and recently - a much more successful men's basketball program. They are also recruiting Chicago much better than DePaul. The old Big East kicked out Temple Football for its non-competitiveness, attendance, and its inability to compete in the conference for similar standings/performance. It would be hard not to wonder - if DePaul leadership remains committed to keeping tenured administrators - if the same discussions wouldn't be brought up at some point again.

Very interesting points. A couple of thoughts.

TV contracts are often for the purpose of obtaining a single event regardless of how the week to week ratings are. As long as the Big East tournament gets good ratings, the conference will be a good property.

For its first 30 years or so, the NIT was a major sporting event and a big draw in NYC. Part of Dave Gavitt’s genius was to see that and to realize that as the NIT declined, it could be replaced in the traditions of NYC college basketball fans with a conference tournament featuring the same kinds of teams that historically competed in the NIT.

As for kicking out DePaul, it’s not happening, the status of Temple is not comparable. Temple was an associate member for one sport with a conditional agreement that stipulated a renewal. DePaul is a full member for all sports with all of the rights and privileges of any full member. Depending on the provisions of the by-laws, such members can only be terminated for cause.

If the Big East wanted to add Loyola, they would have to decide to make Chicago a 2-member town as they did with metro NYC. I don’y Know that the Chicago population can justify that. Does Loyola really have more students and alumni? I always thought that DePaul was the bigger school.