(1) THURSDAY, 12/29/16 - BU @ SJU

[NJRedman]

Williams almost cost St. John's the game twice with 2 seconds left

Meh, the whistle blew and he knew he was fouled. No biggie, though I wish he sunk one of those FT's.

[NJRedman]

As bad as the refs were on both sides, it was awesome to finally see the fanbase embrace this team. We got off to an absolutely horrid start and to come back and beat Cuse by 33 at their house and follow that up with a win over a very good #13 Butler team is just an amazing feeling. We turned the ball over way too much and I honestly thought that would cost us the game. Either way win or lose, this was a great game right down to the end. Entertaining basketball. If the Big East is to thrive long term, St. John's will need to have a pulse at the very least. I hate to get a win like this against a fellow Big East brother (much rather a #13 win over OOC opponent), but after OOC it's a dogfight and it's every man for himself. Butler is a great team and will be fine. I've always respected their program they are very consistent in their success. We were all lined up for the race, the gun went off and we fell on our face while everyone else raced ahead. We got back up and we are now getting into our stride. I really hope this is a turning point. We are now 7-7 back to .500 and we are clearly not going to be pushovers. Great game and good luck to Butler the rest of the way (except against us!).

Positives:
-Ahmed seems to be adjusting better to D1 hoops. Still wild, but improving.
-Tariq Owens was expected to be an end of the bench player. Turned into our best big by far. Great pickup.
-Ponds is one of the very best freshmen in the entire country. If he stays 4 yrs he will be a Wooden Watch player.
-Big crowd and we have now made national noise 2 games in a row forcing people to remember we exist.
-Great win especially after the Cuse drubbing. Could have come out flat but instead played with urgency all night. Great sign.
-I don't have to complain about Mullin for a while.
-First win over #13 team or better at Carnesecca since 1983, or 6 years before my birth.

Negatives:
-LoVett had a groin strain but played. The negative is that he has not been the same player post sprained ankle injury. Decent, but not great. He's been off.
-This hurts the conference this season beating one of our conference's top teams, but again you can argue it's good long-term showing we can win some of these.
-The schedule will continue to be a grind every game.
-Way too many turnovers...thought we would lose because of them.
-Gave up way too many second chance points. So frustrating having a great defensive stand only for the ball to go right back to them for an easy bucket.
-Refs on both sides.
-The rim at Carnesecca is made of bricks. I swear, there's something different about them. If you don't get a swish it rarely goes in.

Tariq Owens was not expected to be an end of the bench player. He was a big transfer coming in from Tennessee, he was expected to play major minutes. Now Darien Williams is a guy who was an end of the bench player who has truly stepped up his game.

[DudeAnon]

Crazy how SJHooper happens to be away from his computer whenever the Redmen win.

My posts are often delayed by hours at a time. They do not go through right away. Plus, I'm too busy tweeting my shock lol I always post on here regardless.

[Bill Marsh]

As bad as the refs were on both sides, it was awesome to finally see the fanbase embrace this team. We got off to an absolutely horrid start and to come back and beat Cuse by 33 at their house and follow that up with a win over a very good #13 Butler team is just an amazing feeling. We turned the ball over way too much and I honestly thought that would cost us the game. Either way win or lose, this was a great game right down to the end. Entertaining basketball. If the Big East is to thrive long term, St. John's will need to have a pulse at the very least. I hate to get a win like this against a fellow Big East brother (much rather a #13 win over OOC opponent), but after OOC it's a dogfight and it's every man for himself. Butler is a great team and will be fine. I've always respected their program they are very consistent in their success. We were all lined up for the race, the gun went off and we fell on our face while everyone else raced ahead. We got back up and we are now getting into our stride. I really hope this is a turning point. We are now 7-7 back to .500 and we are clearly not going to be pushovers. Great game and good luck to Butler the rest of the way (except against us!).

Positives:
-Ahmed seems to be adjusting better to D1 hoops. Still wild, but improving.
-Tariq Owens was expected to be an end of the bench player. Turned into our best big by far. Great pickup.
-Ponds is one of the very best freshmen in the entire country. If he stays 4 yrs he will be a Wooden Watch player.
-Big crowd and we have now made national noise 2 games in a row forcing people to remember we exist.
-Great win especially after the Cuse drubbing. Could have come out flat but instead played with urgency all night. Great sign.
-I don't have to complain about Mullin for a while.
-First win over #13 team or better at Carnesecca since 1983, or 6 years before my birth.

Negatives:
-LoVett had a groin strain but played. The negative is that he has not been the same player post sprained ankle injury. Decent, but not great. He's been off.
-This hurts the conference this season beating one of our conference's top teams, but again you can argue it's good long-term showing we can win some of these.
-The schedule will continue to be a grind every game.
-Way too many turnovers...thought we would lose because of them.
-Gave up way too many second chance points. So frustrating having a great defensive stand only for the ball to go right back to them for an easy bucket.
-Refs on both sides.
-The rim at Carnesecca is made of bricks. I swear, there's something different about them. If you don't get a swish it rarely goes in.

St John's great strength this year has been their ability to make 3's and to do so while taking a lot of them. Coming into tonight's game, they had attempted 25 per game and made 10-11. What's amazing is that they attempted only 16, made only 4, and won the game anyway. That's like winning after spotting. butler 6-7 points before the game had even begun.

As you said, they turned the ball over too much. In addition, Butler beat them on the offensive boards. The result was more possessions for Butler. Everything else being equal, Butler should have won. But St John's shot 54% from the floor against a team known for its tough, physical defense. And their 79% from the line was very strong.

The Syracuse win was very impressive for showing how St John's could blow a good team out on their own court. But tonight may have been even more impressive for their ability to pull out a win against a top team despite the fact that that top team took away their primary weapon, the 3.

If I were a St John's fan, I'd be getting very excited. About their prospects for the season. A young team like this will stumble, but the last 2 games they've shown what they're made of. Congratulations.

[SJHooper]

If you are a Butler fan, don't hang your head...honestly we have been way overdue for wins like these, you just happened to be the one to fall victim. When you underperform for so long, you are bound to steal some you weren't supposed to get regardless of who it is. We were one of the most unlucky teams in basketball during OOC before the Cuse win (KenPom actually ranks luck and we were top 10 worst in all of division 1). The law of averages swings the other way eventually. It's really such a shame we played so poorly in OOC...if we would have done well and avoided bad losses while winning 2 of those Minny/MSU/PSU/VCU games plus our Cuse and #13 Butler win, we would be a top 25 team on Monday. We can't look back, gotta look forward. Teams know not to take us lightly now, so we have to keep up the intensity. We all knew we had the talent to beat the best teams, we just didn't put it together until recently.

One really big question for me is why is Williams not getting more playing time? He can be erratic at times, but he has shown a very light touch around the rim and he can even make mid range and 3 pt shots. He was a 4 star recruit playing at Iowa State and he did well until he got hurt. He should be getting more PT especially given that Sima is gone and Amar has been hurt. Though Amar is now back, he's still better than him and should play over him. By the way, random point but I liked listening to Holtmann in the huddle mic'd up. He actually got me all pumped up and I'm not even a Butler fan Mullin still has a ways to go but man I hope we turned the corner. Turning the corner in the sense of consistently decent play not always winning.

[REDMEN1415]

St John's great strength this year has been their ability to make 3's and to do so while taking a lot of them. Coming into tonight's game, they had attempted 25 per game and made 10-11. What's amazing is that they attempted only 16, made only 4, and won the game anyway. That's like winning after spotting. butler 6-7 points before the game had even begun.

As you said, they turned the ball over too much. In addition, Butler beat them on the offensive boards. The result was more possessions for Butler. Everything else being equal, Butler should have won. But St John's shot 54% from the floor against a team known for its tough, physical defense. And their 79% from the line was very strong.

The Syracuse win was very impressive for showing how St John's could blow a good team out on their own court. But tonight may have been even more impressive for their ability to pull out a win against a top team despite the fact that that top team took away their primary weapon, the 3.

If I were a St John's fan, I'd be getting very excited. About their prospects for the season. A young team like this will stumble, but the last 2 games they've shown what they're made of. Congratulations.

Excited after just 2 wins vs. Cuse and Butler? Nah, that's only setting myself up for a major disappointment, not doing that.
I gotta see more. Gotta beat DePaul on Sunday.

[Irishdawg]

If you are a Butler fan, don't hang your head...honestly we have been way overdue for wins like these, you just happened to be the one to fall victim. When you underperform for so long, you are bound to steal some you weren't supposed to get regardless of who it is. We were one of the most unlucky teams in basketball during OOC before the Cuse win (KenPom actually ranks luck and we were top 10 worst in all of division 1). The law of averages swings the other way eventually. It's really such a shame we played so poorly in OOC...if we would have done well and avoided bad losses while winning 2 of those Minny/MSU/PSU/VCU games plus our Cuse and #13 Butler win, we would be a top 25 team on Monday. We can't look back, gotta look forward. Teams know not to take us lightly now, so we have to keep up the intensity. We all knew we had the talent to beat the best teams, we just didn't put it together until recently.

One really big question for me is why is Williams not getting more playing time? He can be erratic at times, but he has shown a very light touch around the rim and he can even make mid range and 3 pt shots. He was a 4 star recruit playing at Iowa State and he did well until he got hurt. He should be getting more PT especially given that Sima is gone and Amar has been hurt. Though Amar is now back, he's still better than him and should play over him. By the way, random point but I liked listening to Holtmann in the huddle mic'd up. He actually got me all pumped up and I'm not even a Butler fan Mullin still has a ways to go but man I hope we turned the corner. Turning the corner in the sense of consistently decent play not always winning.

Congrats to you guys, your team played harder and did what they had to do to win. Butler's players need to realize they aren't going to win games just because there's a number next to their name because they don't have the talent to beat anyone of substance, let alone a Big East team on the road without a good approach on both ends of the court. The Johnnies are going to be really talented for the next few years, really hope they get to a consistent high level of play going forward.

[REDMEN1415]

If you are a Butler fan, don't hang your head...honestly we have been way overdue for wins like these, you just happened to be the one to fall victim. When you underperform for so long, you are bound to steal some you weren't supposed to get regardless of who it is. We were one of the most unlucky teams in basketball during OOC before the Cuse win (KenPom actually ranks luck and we were top 10 worst in all of division 1). The law of averages swings the other way eventually. It's really such a shame we played so poorly in OOC...if we would have done well and avoided bad losses while winning 2 of those Minny/MSU/PSU/VCU games plus our Cuse and #13 Butler win, we would be a top 25 team on Monday. We can't look back, gotta look forward. Teams know not to take us lightly now, so we have to keep up the intensity. We all knew we had the talent to beat the best teams, we just didn't put it together until recently.

One really big question for me is why is Williams not getting more playing time? He can be erratic at times, but he has shown a very light touch around the rim and he can even make mid range and 3 pt shots. He was a 4 star recruit playing at Iowa State and he did well until he got hurt. He should be getting more PT especially given that Sima is gone and Amar has been hurt. Though Amar is now back, he's still better than him and should play over him. By the way, random point but I liked listening to Holtmann in the huddle mic'd up. He actually got me all pumped up and I'm not even a Butler fan Mullin still has a ways to go but man I hope we turned the corner. Turning the corner in the sense of consistently decent play not always winning.

Congrats to you guys, your team played harder and did what they had to do to win. Butler's players need to realize they aren't going to win games just because there's a number next to their name because they don't have the talent to beat anyone of substance, let alone a Big East team on the road without a good approach on both ends of the court. The Johnnies are going to be really talented for the next few years, really hope they get to a consistent high level of play going forward.

No let down at DePaul, and a tough competitive game vs.Creighton and I'll start feeling good about the Redmen.

[XUFan09]

Unfortunately, this will probably be considered a bad loss for Butler, because RPI (and not Kenpom, Sagarin, etc.) is considered the basis for judging an opponent. Advanced metrics put SJU at the back end of the top 100, so a road loss wouldn't be a "good" loss but wouldn't be a bad one either. However, RPI Forecast puts SJU somewhere in the 150-170 range (A 10-8 conference record would probably be needed to get them in the top 100, but with good luck, 9-9 might do it). Luckily, the Selection Committee has a notable subjective component, so the members that cover Big East will make clear that the numbers aren't entirely fair for how well SJU sometimes plays. It just sucks that RPI alone don't tell the true story for Butler's loss when it's the central metric.

This won't sink Butler's tournament bid, but a protected seed just got harder. In the long run, though, SJU needs to experience winning and needs to build a winning culture. That's not just a switch that can be flicked on once a program is truly competitive, so there will be some victims along the way who get hit with the bad loss while the team is developing its potential.

I think we're getting ahead of ourselves. The outcome of the season for any of these teams isn't predetermined. St John's may come on in conference play and be a lot better than anyone thinks. I don't think so, but none of us can predict the future.

None of us can predict the future, but we can assess the probability of different outcomes:

- Butler is a likely tournament team, but their ambitions of a protected seed just got harder with their second sub-100 loss. There is just less room for error.
- Even if SJU is starting to come together, we know enough about them to say that it's very unlikely they will reach .500 or better. They narrowly beat Butler at home. Going into the game, their probability of victory was 25% per Kenpom. That's a solid minority probability. The Syracuse outcome is the only highly improbable outcome in their favor, and though it was ridiculous, it still represents only one data point. Now, I could see them getting between 5 and 7 wins rather than between 2 and 4, but getting up to 9 is very unlikely. Also contributing to this is the quality of the top half of the league.
- Without 9+ wins, a top 100 RPI is practically impossible. Their SOS would have to exceed expectations way too much and/or a lot of teams projected on the border of the top 100 would have to fall short of expectations.

I get that you're saying that we shouldn't assume SJU will suck again and that maybe they will be a tough out in conference. I bet they finish 7th or 8th, which is respectable this season. Unfortunately, too much is already set in stone for them numerically with their non-conference performance.

[ecasadoSBU]

You dont wanna have such a huge divide between the Top half and bottom half.

I respectfully disagree. Huge separations create tourney bids.

Nevertheless, nice job by SJU to hang with 'em and fight back.

Bluejay. I'll say it again. I agree with your statement to a certain extent.

In a mid-major league (WCC, MVC, Horizon) your statement is correct. Put all your energies and all the wins towards two or three teams to maximize tourney bids. Yeah, that's the league strategy when you are in the middle of the pack of the NCAA.

When you are the #1 RPI rated league in the country you want to make you have great teams but you also want to make sure that for the long-term success of the league that you don't have any doormats. Having a DePaul and SJU go 1-17 is NOT good for the league (short-term vs. Long-term). This is the Big East, the top league in the country. Five to six bids will come at the end of the day no matter what because RPIs won't go down too much despite the upsets. Every game should be competitive and winnable any night. That's what keeps the league stable and successful in the long run as it shows recruits, fans, media that those teams can improve in a few years from low-tier to top-tier. You don't wanna have a Northwestern, or BC locked in the bottom spot forever. No good

Leave your mid-major mentality behind. This is not about propping up two or three teams so they can make the field of 68. The Big East has never been in that position.

Our league-wide strategy should be to have all OUR teams in a competitive position to draw as much eyeballs, media, recruits, money into the league. The bids will come no matter what happens when you have #1 RPI