Sunday's Games 2/28

[stever20]

looking at where Lunardi had them- Michigan was in the mid-30's. Also Michigan is in 75/76 brackets on the matrix right now.

Butler and Temple aren't close to that. I personally don't think Temple is all that close- their KP rating is putrid. Temple is in brackets right now really only because they're leading the conference.

Right now-
Butler has 2 for sure. Purdue and Seton Hall. I don't see you saying anywhere else that Cincy or Temple are locks. Only 5 top 100 wins...
PC has 2 for sure. Arizona and Nova. Butler isn't a lock right now. right now 6 top 100 wins right now
UConn has 3 level for sure- Texas ,SMU, and Michigan. 6 top 100 wins as well

I think the top 100 wins are why PC and UConn are so close to each other right now, while Butler is further back.

Also not sure why you say the SMU win isn't so sparkling. They are still #13 in RPI and #20 in KP. That's a pretty damn good win. And even if they lose both games this week- to UConn and Cincy- they would still wind up with a top 20 RPI. That's a pretty darn sparkling win.

Bottom line with Butler, I don't see how beating a team that isn't even in the top 100(Marquette)- with 2 losses to Seton Hall- would help their place on the bubble. At best, they would maintain- but then you get games like yesterday with Vandy beating Kentucky- and they're falling instead of going up.

My hunch is-
PC- I'd say about 90% they get in.
Butler- I'd say about 50/50 they get in. If they beat Seton Hall- that goes up to about 90%. If they lose to Seton Hall, I really think they have to beat them in the BET to get in.

[BEhomer]

Xavier's 1-3-1 zone looks legit. long and active. It should give teams fits in the tourney.

I like the fact that Seton Hall has 7/8 man rotation and players with defined roles. (Nzei, Sanogo, Gordon)

[GumbyDamnit!]

They might have 20 wins in that case, but would have only 5 top 100 wins. With quite possibly only 2 wins vs teams in the tourney- Purdue and Seton Hall- maybe a third with Cincy.

So by your logic if Butler is in trouble than Temple, Tulsa, Cincy and UConn are ALL in serious trouble.

You seem unimpressed by Butler only beating two tourney teams. Can you please name for me the surefire tourney teams that Temple, Tulsa and Cincy have all beaten.

Butler has won both @ Seton Hall (39) and vs. Purdue (n, 17) OOC
- 7 wins vs the Top 100
- Of their 9 losses, only one is from a team outside the Top 100 (Marq 106). So 0 bad losses.
- 5 of 9 of their losses came against Top 10 RPI teams
- 5 of their Top 100 wins came either on the road or neutral (the committee loves things like that as you know)

Now let's look at your other favorite bubble teams:

Tulsa - Wins against certain tourney teams = 0. Maybe Wichita (#40, H), who really is a bubble team.
Bad Losses = 146 (H) & @ 164. Not good at all--esp H vs. 146 OOC.
Have played 0 teams in the RPI Top 10.

Cincy - Wins against tourney teams - 0. Maybe @VCU (#45) who is also a bubble team.
Bad losses = @164. Bad, bad loss.
- 15 of Cincy's 21 wins are against RPI 150+. Let that sink in. That's really not good at all.
- Have played 1 team in the Top 10 RPI.

UConn - Wins vs. tourney teams - @21 (That's actually a very good win).
Bad losses = 7 losses to teams 50+; only 1 to a top 10 RPI team.
May finish in 6th place in the 8th best RPI conference. Wow.

Temple - Wins vs tourney teams = 0
NO Top 150 OOC wins whatsoever. Ouch--thought that must have been a mistake when I saw that and when I also saw Temple sitting atop the standings.
Bad losses - @ 164, @197. Ouch.

So the hopes of the AAC hinge on the 1st place team who was 0-6 OOC vs the RPI Top 150; the flag bearer of the conference who has the lone solid OOC win but who also will probably finish 6th in the standings of the 8th best conference; or the two teams that may face the committee without a single W vs other tourney teams. Got it.

So, what was that you were saying about Butler again?

I hate to break it to you but the AAC will be fortunate to get 2 in this year and I can almost guarantee that neither will be wearing home jerseys in their first round tourney game.

Go peddle your Anti-BE nonsense elsewhere.

[stever20]

Butler has 5 wins vs RPI top 100. Not 7. Georgetown is 105 now and won't get back into the top 100...
Creighton is getting close to being a bad loss. They are #99 right now....
They have 1 more top 100 game left.

Cincy has 6 wins vs RPI top 100. With 2 more games left in the regular season vs top 100 teams...
UConn has 6 wins vs RPI top 100. With 1 more left. Also sorry but no losses to team in the top 100 is a bad loss. Bad losses are 101 or worse... You say a loss to 106 Marquette is a good loss, but a loss for UConn to 51 Cincy is a bad loss. Gotta love that logic. Also, you can dismiss it all you want, but UConn did beat SMU. You can say all your crap about SMU- but that's a joke. It's going to count as a damn good win for UConn.....
Same with Tulsa. They have the win vs Wichita, and they did beat SMU. And if UConn or Cincy is in, they have a win vs them.

[Jet915]

Butler has 5 wins vs RPI top 100. Not 7. Georgetown is 105 now and won't get back into the top 100...
Creighton is getting close to being a bad loss. They are #99 right now....
They have 1 more top 100 game left.

Cincy has 6 wins vs RPI top 100. With 2 more games left in the regular season vs top 100 teams...
UConn has 6 wins vs RPI top 100. With 1 more left. Also sorry but no losses to team in the top 100 is a bad loss. Bad losses are 101 or worse... You say a loss to 106 Marquette is a good loss, but a loss for UConn to 51 Cincy is a bad loss. Gotta love that logic. Also, you can dismiss it all you want, but UConn did beat SMU. You can say all your crap about SMU- but that's a joke. It's going to count as a damn good win for UConn.....
Same with Tulsa. They have the win vs Wichita, and they did beat SMU. And if UConn or Cincy is in, they have a win vs them.

U do realize that Butler's 4 top 100 losses came to the #2 rpi team (Villanova) and #5 rpi team (Xavier). No one in the AAC has had to play games against teams so highly rated. So in reality, AAC conference play is trash, their first place team isnt even a tourney team, was blown out by Villanova and beaten on a neutral court by Butler.

[HoosierPal]

Butler has 5 wins vs RPI top 100. Not 7. Georgetown is 105 now and won't get back into the top 100...
Creighton is getting close to being a bad loss. They are #99 right now....
They have 1 more top 100 game left.

Cincy has 6 wins vs RPI top 100. With 2 more games left in the regular season vs top 100 teams...
UConn has 6 wins vs RPI top 100. With 1 more left. Also sorry but no losses to team in the top 100 is a bad loss. Bad losses are 101 or worse... You say a loss to 106 Marquette is a good loss, but a loss for UConn to 51 Cincy is a bad loss. Gotta love that logic. Also, you can dismiss it all you want, but UConn did beat SMU. You can say all your crap about SMU- but that's a joke. It's going to count as a damn good win for UConn.....
Same with Tulsa. They have the win vs Wichita, and they did beat SMU. And if UConn or Cincy is in, they have a win vs them.

U do realize that Butler's 4 top 100 losses came to the #2 rpi team (Villanova) and #5 rpi team (Xavier). No one in the AAC has had to play games against teams so highly rated. So in reality, AAC conference play is trash, their first place team isnt even a tourney team, was blown out by Villanova and beaten on a neutral court by Butler.

No one here in Indy thinks this is a done deal. Have to beat Seton Hall. Then we'll talk.

[stever20]

Butler has 5 wins vs RPI top 100. Not 7. Georgetown is 105 now and won't get back into the top 100...
Creighton is getting close to being a bad loss. They are #99 right now....
They have 1 more top 100 game left.

Cincy has 6 wins vs RPI top 100. With 2 more games left in the regular season vs top 100 teams...
UConn has 6 wins vs RPI top 100. With 1 more left. Also sorry but no losses to team in the top 100 is a bad loss. Bad losses are 101 or worse... You say a loss to 106 Marquette is a good loss, but a loss for UConn to 51 Cincy is a bad loss. Gotta love that logic. Also, you can dismiss it all you want, but UConn did beat SMU. You can say all your crap about SMU- but that's a joke. It's going to count as a damn good win for UConn.....
Same with Tulsa. They have the win vs Wichita, and they did beat SMU. And if UConn or Cincy is in, they have a win vs them.

U do realize that Butler's 4 top 100 losses came to the #2 rpi team (Villanova) and #5 rpi team (Xavier). No one in the AAC has had to play games against teams so highly rated. So in reality, AAC conference play is trash, their first place team isnt even a tourney team, was blown out by Villanova and beaten on a neutral court by Butler.

No one here in Indy thinks this is a done deal. Have to beat Seton Hall. Then we'll talk.

I think you beat Seton Hall, you are in.

Also about the AAC conference play is trash comment. I'd say beating the #13 team in the country is pretty damn good. And that's something UConn, Temple, Tulsa, and Houston have all done- and Cincy has them this week.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Butler has 5 wins vs RPI top 100. Not 7. Georgetown is 105 now and won't get back into the top 100...
Creighton is getting close to being a bad loss. They are #99 right now....
They have 1 more top 100 game left.

Cincy has 6 wins vs RPI top 100. With 2 more games left in the regular season vs top 100 teams...
UConn has 6 wins vs RPI top 100. With 1 more left. Also sorry but no losses to team in the top 100 is a bad loss. Bad losses are 101 or worse... You say a loss to 106 Marquette is a good loss, but a loss for UConn to 51 Cincy is a bad loss. Gotta love that logic. Also, you can dismiss it all you want, but UConn did beat SMU. You can say all your crap about SMU- but that's a joke. It's going to count as a damn good win for UConn.....
Same with Tulsa. They have the win vs Wichita, and they did beat SMU. And if UConn or Cincy is in, they have a win vs them.

Look Stever you and I hooked horns last year and it played out almost exactly as I predicted. You were proven wrong at every turn. You were claiming (in early Feb) that the AAC teams had this rose-covered road to the tourney ahead of them, and that both X and SJU were in "serious trouble." I told you then, and I'll tell you now: you are seriously overvaluing the AAC teams. Tulsa just lost to a bad team today. The AAC is the 8th ranked conference for a reason and not one team staked its claim as the best team in that conference. Even SMU, who you seem to think is the 2nd coming of Kansas, probably will finish BEHIND a team that did not win one matchup OOC vs team ranked lower than 150. Why do you think you will see anything different than we saw last year regarding how the Committee values that conference?

Butler is fine and will make the tourney. They are 2-0 vs. the AAC top teams, and both away from Hinkle, and they have two legit wins against tourney teams. Tulsa and Cincy have ZERO. The BE will get 5 teams in the dance, and the AAC is looking at probably 2 teams at best IMO. It's just not a very good league. Not one single team in that conference has locked up anything yet. EVERY single bubble team in the AAC has work to do. There are only so many games left, and in the AAC tournament none of the teams remaining are all that special. The BE will have 2 Top 10 RPI teams and another Top 30 most likely. Beat any of those teams a week before Selection Sunday and you jump up. Beat Temple or Houston in the AAC tourney and committee members yawn.

What always happens this time of year in the P6 conf tournaments is that 3 or 4 "bubble" teams knock off a Top 20 team unexpectedly and they get shot past 5 or 6 mid majors. Happens every year. So this year it'll be someone like Ohio State or Vandy, 'Bama or LSU or Washington, or "Cuse or Clemson. Point is those teams still have a shot at several quality wins. With SMU out (who is closer to SHU than to Nova or X), where's the "good win" opportunity oin that AAC tourney? Answer: it's not there.

Lastly, what's consistently amusing is that you just cherry pick whatever data points you want shamelessly. You bring up RPI when it suits you, and then KP when it suits you, Top 100 wins today, Top 50 tomorrow, OOC SOS, etc., etc. You bring up G'town being outside the Top 100 RPI (even though ESPN has them in the Top 100 today) and then act like Butler's 7 Top 100 wins today are only 5 tomorrow and those 2 games are NOW a big deal to you. It's like a lousy parlor trick. Everyone sees through it. Butler has lost 9 games. 5 of those games are vs. teams ranked in the Top 10 RPI. But Tulsa and Cincy don't play quality teams like Butler has. That won't be lost on the committee.

So stop with this nonsense yet again, or you'll be looking at disappointment, and we'll all have to publicly shame you when you are proven wrong on Selection Sunday.

[stever20]

but you see Gumby. This week Cincy and UConn have a shot vs SMU that would give them the win that you are talking about. It doesn't have to be in the conference tourney. If either of them beat SMU, they are in the tourney, period.

I use Warren Nolan's RPI which is up to the minute. Not at the start of the day. I just looked at the OFFICIAL NCAA site- and it had Georgetown at 101. So I think I would trust that over ESPN.....

Also gumby- your point about tough teams...
right now Cincy has played 13 top 100 teams
UConn has played 15 top 100 teams
Butler has played 13 top 100 teams

I'll give you Cincy with easier schedule- right now Cincy's SOS is 93(though they do have Houston and SMU this week, so that will improve)
Butler- SOS right now is 73
UConn- SOS right now is 62

Also, in the Big East- the bubble teams aren't going to get a shot at a top 20 team when they need it. Nova and X are going to be playing Georgetown and Marquette in the QF. Butler will be playing Seton Hall(which is a good one). But PC will be seeing Creighton.

One MAJOR difference with the AAC this year to last is where they are in the Ken Pom. Last year they were #10- and it was a distant #10. Temple and Tulsa had 56 and 72 ratings. This year the AAC is a much stronger #7 in Ken Pom. UConn is 28, Cincy is 30, and Tulsa is 43. hell, Houston is 52(I'm not saying they're getting in but just for the record). Temple who I've seen some folks love, is like 90. Meanwhile, the Big East isn't quite as good as last year in Ken Pom. So in a period where advanced metrics are meaning more and more- to go from 10 to 7 in Ken Pom, the gold standard of advanced metrics, I think bodes well for the AAC.

[JohnW22]

You say Big East bubble teams but come selection Sunday I think all 5 will be in safely.