Bracketology

[stever20]

So for the AAC:
- UConn winning tourney gets AAC 2 bids. (UConn, Cincinnati).
- Temple winning tourney gets the AAC 3 bids? (Temple, UConn, Cincinnati).
- Memphis winning tourney gets 2 bids? (Memphis, UConn).
- Tulane winning tourney gets 2 bids? (UConn, Tulane).

Or is Cincinnati toast already based on Tulsa and Houston losing?
I don't think Cincinnati should be in, but they seem to be on everyone's ballots.
They just lost by 13 to Houston, who then lost to Tulane.
Wow.

UConn wins tourney- they get 2 bids.
Temple, Memphis, Tulane wins tourney- they get 3 bids. that team, UConn, Cincy.

[stever20]

so I saw this scroll on ESPN's bar....

UConn now holds being in the longest game ever in 2 conferences... Big East and AAC.

[JohnW22]

A UCONN loss to Temple could hurt. Can any team steal the St. Louis location from Xavier?

[billyjack]

So for the AAC:
- UConn winning tourney gets AAC 2 bids. (UConn, Cincinnati).
- Temple winning tourney gets the AAC 3 bids? (Temple, UConn, Cincinnati).
- Memphis winning tourney gets 2 bids? (Memphis, UConn).
- Tulane winning tourney gets 2 bids? (UConn, Tulane).

Or is Cincinnati toast already based on Tulsa and Houston losing?
I don't think Cincinnati should be in, but they seem to be on everyone's ballots.
They just lost by 13 to Houston, who then lost to Tulane.
Wow.

UConn wins tourney- they get 2 bids.
Temple, Memphis, Tulane wins tourney- they get 3 bids. that team, UConn, Cincy.

I know the standard line is that teams earn bids, not conferences, but this is one of those cases where a Tulane or Memphis title win will remove Cincinnati from NCAA consideration. That's the penalty served against so many AAC bubble teams. Impossible that say Michigan would be dropped in favor of Cincinnati if some other AAC dreg wins their tourney.

I would guess that the only path to 3 bids is a Temple win. Otherwise 2 bids max. If Tulane wins there's an outside shot at 1 bid.

And i still think Cincinnati is teetering right now.

[stever20]

So for the AAC:
- UConn winning tourney gets AAC 2 bids. (UConn, Cincinnati).
- Temple winning tourney gets the AAC 3 bids? (Temple, UConn, Cincinnati).
- Memphis winning tourney gets 2 bids? (Memphis, UConn).
- Tulane winning tourney gets 2 bids? (UConn, Tulane).

Or is Cincinnati toast already based on Tulsa and Houston losing?
I don't think Cincinnati should be in, but they seem to be on everyone's ballots.
They just lost by 13 to Houston, who then lost to Tulane.
Wow.

UConn wins tourney- they get 2 bids.
Temple, Memphis, Tulane wins tourney- they get 3 bids. that team, UConn, Cincy.

I know the standard line is that teams earn bids, not conferences, but this is one of those cases where a Tulane or Memphis title win will remove Cincinnati from NCAA consideration. That's the penalty served against so many AAC bubble teams. Impossible that say Michigan would be dropped in favor of Cincinnati if some other AAC dreg wins their tourney.

I would guess that the only path to 3 bids is a Temple win. Otherwise 2 bids max. If Tulane wins there's an outside shot at 1 bid.

And i still think Cincinnati is teetering right now.

That's not what happened last year. Remember Wyoming won and stole Temple's bid.... And if UConn had won, Dayton would have been out.

Frankly Cincy is pretty close to a lock right now....

looking at things....
in the major conferences, only 4 teams left could steal a bid- 3 spots... 5/4 if you say Memphis....
Davidson, Michigan, and LSU/Georgia.
ACC, Big East, Big 12, and Pac 12 are guaranteed to not have any bid thieves...

So if you see teams in bracketology tomorrow with byes, they are pretty much a lock now.

[stever20]

and just looking at the ESPN Bubble watch...
got 34 locks, and 4 should be in's.

with that is 26 at larges with the locks. You give lock status to the 4 should be in's- VCU, Oregon St, South Carolina, St Mary's(disagree with that but still)- you have 30 locks. That means 6 at larges left...

With the auto bid in the AAC assuming going to either UConn or Temple, that would mean 7 of these 11 teams would be going to the tourney...
Cincy
UConn
Temple
St Bonnie's
Pittsburgh
Syracuse
Michigan
Vandy
UALR(who still could get auto bid and be off this list- meaning 7 of 10)
Valpo
Monmouth

I would say Cincy is ahead of St Bonnie's, Pitt, Syracuse, UALR, Valpo, and Monmouth for sure no matter what right now....

[stever20]

for the Big East...

I feel like Nova has totally clinched a 1 seed.... I think Kansas(probably clinched 1 overall), Nova, UNC/UVA winner are 3 1's for sure now. I think Oregon may be the 4th 1 quite frankly if they win....

Xavier needs either Oregon or West Virginia to lose to get a 2. Otherwise looking at a 3.

Seton Hall I feel like will be in with a win the 4/5 lines. a loss, probably a 6.

Butler and PC I'm afraid are 8/9's.

[stever20]

Updated Bracketology from Lunardi:
Butler 8 W
Providence 8 S
Xavier 3 S
Nova 1 E
Seton Hall 7 E

he did just what I thought- moved WVU up to a 2 and X down to the 3....

Where I really disagree with him is Seton Hall... I feel like them and Iowa should flip- with Iowa being a 7 and SH a 6.....

[milksteak]

Where I really disagree with him is Seton Hall... I feel like them and Iowa should flip- with Iowa being a 7 and SH a 6.....

I could get behind this. Iowa has been absolutely lousy as of late.

[GoldenWarrior11]

The biggest shame in the UConn/UC game yesterday was that, as usual, no one showed up for an AAC game - tournament or otherwise. UConn/UC need to jump ship from that empty barnyard as fast as possible.