It's Official: Kris Dunn Will Return To PC...!

[billyjack]

General question that I don't know the answer to...

Wouldn't it be in an NBA team's interest to draft an older player? If the NBA gets a player's first 3 pro years at a limited salary, isn't it better for that team to get a player at 23, 24 and 25 years old...? He'd be a more polished, finished product. Compare that to say Dante Exum... Utah gets him cheap for ages 18, 19, and 20, while he's still having growing pains. By the time he's ready to seriously contribute, he becomes much more expensive.

[DudeAnon]

I would hope he goes simply because the chance for injury is too high in my opinion. Would hate to see him lose his livelihood for a chance to make a little bit more money.

[FriarJ]

I'm sure he could care less what Chad Ford or anyone else thinks, what I would bet my life on is that he cares what NBA teams tell him and if they tell him another year is the thing to do then that will be why he is staying. If multiple teams tell him that he is certain to go in the mid 1st round then he will surely go. If he stays its because he has not heard that and obviously up until this moment he has not heard that.

[Irishdawg]

General question that I don't know the answer to...

Wouldn't it be in an NBA team's interest to draft an older player? If the NBA gets a player's first 3 pro years at a limited salary, isn't it better for that team to get a player at 23, 24 and 25 years old...? He'd be a more polished, finished product. Compare that to say Dante Exum... Utah gets him cheap for ages 18, 19, and 20, while he's still having growing pains. By the time he's ready to seriously contribute, he becomes much more expensive.

I see your point, but I think the general consensus is to get a guy while he's younger because the improvements that they can make in their first few seasons in the NBA will be more significant than someone would make from their early to mid-20's. Plus they can learn the pro game at a younger age so then by the time they're 22 or 23 they've already got a few seasons under their belt and be better acclimated to the league. The polished, finished product is actually a negative for guys, especially because the longer they're in college, the more time people will have to poke holes in their games.

It's also easier to keep a guy in a small market city, especially with the restricted free agent tags that most will initially get than it is to convince an unrestricted free agent to come there if you don't already have another superstar in place.

[stever20]

Just saw this:

Jeff Goodman @GoodmanESPN
Kris Dunn is returning to Providence, sources confirmed to ESPN. School will announce this afternoon. 16m

Jeff Goodman @GoodmanESPN
I give Kris Dunn a lot of credit for deciding to remain in college despite being considered a lock first-round pick by most NBA guys.

[Irishdawg]

I'm sure he could care less what Chad Ford or anyone else thinks, what I would bet my life on is that he cares what NBA teams tell him and if they tell him another year is the thing to do then that will be why he is staying. If multiple teams tell him that he is certain to go in the mid 1st round then he will surely go. If he stays its because he has not heard that and obviously up until this moment he has not heard that.

I would bet that Chad Ford doesn't make these projections without talking with NBA teams as well. If you look at where he had guys ranked in the 2014 draft prior to it, it's actually pretty darn close in most instances to where they were picked, and only 3 guys that he had projected as being 1st rounders wound up in the 2nd.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/res ... /year/2014

Dunn might just really like where he's at now too and want his degree. Not everyone is wired to simply leave because they're projected to be a first round pick.

[FriarJ]

Does not matter now, he just officially announced he is staying

[Jet915]

Jeff Goodman ✔ @GoodmanESPN
Kris Dunn is returning to Providence, sources confirmed to ESPN. School will announce this afternoon.

Great for PC and the Big East. Hope it works out for Dunn.

[gosports1]

good news for PC if true. Again I will not believe until deadline has passed.

[ChelseaFriar]

Just going by the data, the 22 year old thing is very real. 7 guys age 22 on draft night getting drafted in the top 10 in the last 10 years(with none since 2011-Lilliard and McCollum were 21 on draft night- 22 by start of season). 10 years is kind of important because it's the start of the 1 and done era in college basketball.

Agree the data backs up the fact that 22 year old players don't often get drafted in the Top 10, but it doesn't provide clarity on the reason for this fact. I'd argue that there are many reasons for this. I pointed out a few below with example 1 being the the most important factor contributing to this data.

1) Most players who have any potential to be a Top 10 pick at all leave well before they are 21 years old. Many of them leave when they are 19. Therefore, the sample pool we have of 22 year old players who are talented enough, and have games that translate to the NBA, is very, very small. Extremely small. Put another way, if Jahil Okafor decided to play four seasons at Duke, he'd still be a Top 5 pick.

2) Most 22 year old players have played 4 full seasons of college basketball and have had four full seasons to come closer to reaching their potential. Dunn has played one healthy season. He played another half season injured, as a freshman, playing off the ball while Vincent Council ran PG.

3) Most guys who have a shot at the NBA but stick around four years probably needed the fourth year to solidify their draft status (some obvious exceptions such as McDermott). They either have games that might not translate well to the NBA (Fredette) or they had some hiccups in their career (Jerian Grant academically ineligible).

Honestly, I personally probably would have taken the money now. But I think the 22 year old data has major flaws simply because we don't see many 22 year old draft candidates who ever had the potential to be lottery picks.