NET Rankings

[adoraz]

The % odds are just my gut and assumes teams have similar remaining BE schedules. I started including it when everyone still had 15 or so Big East games remaining, so of course I didn't (and still don't) look at every individual game remaining. Once we get to 4 or 5 games remaining for each team, then I'll look at schedules and improve the % odds numbers.

As for Creighton at 9-9, I won't get into that as I've never believed they'd get in at 9-9 with zero BET wins. There's a reason I've always set their BE wins total to 10. Just a passing comment saying 9-9 wouldn't shock me given how weak the bubble is. 8-10 for St. John's also wouldn't shock me, but I'll save that for another day.

[adoraz]

Creighton at 9-9 with a BET loss would be 17-14 in the committee's eyes. Absolutely zero chance that gets in, especially if they don't have a single Q1 win....

Not true, they'd have 19 Ws (18 D1 Ws) if they go 9-9 and win one BET game. If you go back and read my post (right before the one you posted), I said "with a BET win or two".

So I stand by what I said.

[stever20]

Creighton at 9-9 with a BET loss would be 17-14 in the committee's eyes. Absolutely zero chance that gets in, especially if they don't have a single Q1 win....

Not true, they'd have 19 Ws (18 D1 Ws) if they go 9-9 and win one BET game. If you go back and read my post (right before the one you posted), I said "with a BET win or two".

So I stand by what I said.

If they go 9-9 and win 1 BET game- they'd be 18-14 vs D1. That's VERY bubbly. For them, just as important is number of wins is getting a Q1 win or 2.

[jfan]

Big East moved to #4 In the Conference NET this morning. Don't know what happened---someone must have burped. I guess our rating and the ACC rating must be so close that they are interchangeable!

[stever20]

Big East moved to #4 In the Conference NET this morning. Don't know what happened---someone must have burped. I guess our rating and the ACC rating must be so close that they are interchangeable!

it is.
Big East today 60.80
ACC today 60.87

basically if 1 Big East team falls 1 spot- ACC takes the lead. Or if 1 ACC team improves 1 spot- it becomes a tie. It's literally that close.

[adoraz]

Q1 Johnnies wins/opportunities has been discussed since the pre-season.

As of today, we have 5 Q1 wins, which has to be way better than the average bubble team. Q1 wins won't be a blemish on our resume as so many were expecting, if anything they'll help us get into the Tournament.

#39 St. John's Q1 wins: (H Top 75, N Top 50, A Top 30)

#49 VCU N - not safe
#21 Marquette H - safe
#54 Creighton A - safe
#73 Georgetown A - not safe
#21 Marquette A - safe (100% guarantee)

With a quarter of the bubble teams having only 1 Q1 win, I really like our chances. 9-9 gets us in. Even 8-10 with a BET win probably gets us in. Last year there were 5 teams to make the Tournament at 8-10, from 4 different conferences.

[stever20]

Q1 Johnnies wins/opportunities has been discussed since the pre-season.

As of today, we have 5 Q1 wins, which has to be way better than the average bubble team. Q1 wins won't be a blemish on our resume as so many were expecting, if anything they'll help us get into the Tournament.

#39 St. John's Q1 wins: (H Top 75, N Top 50, A Top 30)

#49 VCU N - not safe
#21 Marquette H - safe
#54 Creighton A - safe
#73 Georgetown A - not safe
#21 Marquette A - safe (100% guarantee)

With a quarter of the bubble teams having only 1 Q1 win, I really like our chances. 9-9 gets us in. Even 8-10 with a BET win probably gets us in. Last year there were 5 teams to make the Tournament at 8-10, from 4 different conferences.

the problem for St John's is they have all of 1 Q1 chance left- vs Villanova.... And only 2 chances at most in the BET as those games count as home games for St John's.... So the 5 is very possibly a best case scenario without another win.... It could easily get down to 2 if Marquette falls out of the top 30, which if they get swept by Nova and picks up like 1 other loss could happen....

Also the SOS from now on is going to start to drop for St John's.

8-10 with a BET win would put you guys at 21-12. With a bad OOC SOS. And going 4-6 from here on. With 5 regular season losses- so losing to Nova, and then 4 of 56 Butler, 67 Seton Hall, 85 Providence H/A, 90 Xavier H/A, and @ 104 DePaul. So best case would be 4 Q2 losses. Would make you guys 7-10 vs Q1/2(plus whatever in the BET). That's very bubbly.

[adoraz]

Q1 Johnnies wins/opportunities has been discussed since the pre-season.

As of today, we have 5 Q1 wins, which has to be way better than the average bubble team. Q1 wins won't be a blemish on our resume as so many were expecting, if anything they'll help us get into the Tournament.

#39 St. John's Q1 wins: (H Top 75, N Top 50, A Top 30)

#49 VCU N - not safe
#21 Marquette H - safe
#54 Creighton A - safe
#73 Georgetown A - not safe
#21 Marquette A - safe (100% guarantee)

With a quarter of the bubble teams having only 1 Q1 win, I really like our chances. 9-9 gets us in. Even 8-10 with a BET win probably gets us in. Last year there were 5 teams to make the Tournament at 8-10, from 4 different conferences.

the problem for St John's is they have all of 1 Q1 chance left- vs Villanova.... And only 2 chances at most in the BET as those games count as home games for St John's.... So the 5 is very possibly a best case scenario without another win.... It could easily get down to 2 if Marquette falls out of the top 30, which if they get swept by Nova and picks up like 1 other loss could happen....

Also the SOS from now on is going to start to drop for St John's.

8-10 with a BET win would put you guys at 21-12. With a bad OOC SOS. And going 4-6 from here on. With 5 regular season losses- so losing to Nova, and then 4 of 56 Butler, 67 Seton Hall, 85 Providence H/A, 90 Xavier H/A, and @ 104 DePaul. So best case would be 4 Q2 losses. Would make you guys 7-10 vs Q1/2(plus whatever in the BET). That's very bubbly.

So then, what's your stance on AAC bubble team Temple having only 1 Q1 win, and not many opportunities remaining? If you describe a hypothetical St. John's resume as "very bubbly", then what would Temple be? Be honest, if Temple were in the Big East you'd be shouting from the rooftops about their lack of Q1 wins.

I'd like to know how many other of the 20 bubble teams have 5 Q1 wins right now (don't think the public has access to this in a simple list... which is ridiculous... the NCAA site isn't that useful). As for St. John's, I don't care if 2 Q1 wins are borderline and become T2, if they lose to Nova, if they don't play a Q1 BET game, etc etc etc. I just care about what is happening right now. Right now we have 5 Q1 wins, and I doubt very many other bubble teams have that many. Sure, maybe next week we only have 3 Q1 wins. Maybe we have 6. Maybe we win 2 or 6 games and none of this matters.

So for now, let's just focus on our actual resume rather than hypothetical worst case scenarios. How many other bubble teams have 5 Q1 wins? I don't expect you to answer as that's a lot of work, but we both know it's not many.

[adoraz]

On another note, the 10/11/12 lines are a lot more desirable than the 8/9 lines. Right now Bracket Matrix has St. John's as a 10 seed, and it seems silly that I rather they not move up into the 8/9 lines. This is of course assuming we don't play in Dayton as an 11/12 seed.

Maybe the NCAA should just expand the Dayton games to includes all the 10/11/12 lines? That way they'd add a bunch more teams, while at the same time adding a major incentive for teams to finish as 9 seeds or better.

[stever20]

On another note, the 10/11/12 lines are a lot more desirable than the 8/9 lines. Right now Bracket Matrix has St. John's as a 10 seed, and it seems silly that I rather they not move up into the 8/9 lines. This is of course assuming we don't play in Dayton as an 11/12 seed.

Maybe the NCAA should just expand the Dayton games to includes all the 10/11/12 lines? That way they'd add a bunch more teams, while at the same time adding a major incentive for teams to finish as 9 seeds or better.

yeah St John's looks right now like that classic 8/9 team....