Conference of the Americas......one-bid

[stever20]

Stever... wait a minute here... it appears UConn just lost.

How is that possible? According to RPI Forecast this was a game they were supposed to win! And surely one you expected them to win.

Guess it's not as simple as just predicting they will win every game they're favored in, huh?

In Ken Pom, Tulsa was favored.

Tulsa is getting pretty interesting. They do have a good OOC win in Wichita which is getting better each week. Good win now over UConn. Their RPI right now is 56....They're going to be a threat. RIght now projected at 19-11. 1 more win and they have 20 wins. SOS is good. Expected SOS is 63. You get 20 wins with a top 65 SOS you're going to have a real good case. And no D2 loss to kill them this year.

AS far as UConn, they started this week with RPI of 82. What is it right now? 85. So not a huge drop off for losing on the road to a top 65 team. It'd be very similar to someone in the Big East losing to a Seton Hall on the road right now. Not that big of a deal.

Funny how we go from talking to RPI Forecast to whatever metric you want. They were favored in RPI Forecast by 2-3 points.

They're playing catch up and are supposed to be moving up in the RPI ranking, not down.

I could play your game and say what if Uconn loses the next couple games and drop below 100 (or whatever, I didn't look it up), but don't worry I won't drag this out longer.

The thing is, in RPI forecast they were individual game underdogs in only 3 games for the rest of the season. But they account for games like last night by instead of projecting 24-7 for them 22-9, giving them some leeway.

[CoachK]

Stever... wait a minute here... it appears UConn just lost.

How is that possible? According to RPI Forecast this was a game they were supposed to win! And surely one you expected them to win.

Guess it's not as simple as just predicting they will win every game they're favored in, huh?

In Ken Pom, Tulsa was favored.

Tulsa is getting pretty interesting. They do have a good OOC win in Wichita which is getting better each week. Good win now over UConn. Their RPI right now is 56....They're going to be a threat. RIght now projected at 19-11. 1 more win and they have 20 wins. SOS is good. Expected SOS is 63. You get 20 wins with a top 65 SOS you're going to have a real good case. And no D2 loss to kill them this year.

AS far as UConn, they started this week with RPI of 82. What is it right now? 85. So not a huge drop off for losing on the road to a top 65 team. It'd be very similar to someone in the Big East losing to a Seton Hall on the road right now. Not that big of a deal.

Honest Injun, did you just type all that with a straight face?

First of all, I'm amazaed that Mike Aresco has the time to post so much here in the first place....

As for Tulsa, their expected RPI is 80.4. That will be bubble territory, for the NIT. Their odds of finishing 20-10 are 7.84% (So you're saying there's a chance). But even at 20-10, their RPI will only be 48, which will at best make them a toss-up.

If you want to give Tulsa has a legit chance, then can we also say that Georgetown, Seton Hall, and Creighton all could get in and the Big East could get 7 teams. Because their expected RPI's are currently 68, 78, and 87. So essentially the same chance.

As for UConn, no they didn't drop too far. But when your RPI is in the mid-80's, you have a very small margin for error. Especially when you still have 5 games left vs teams with RPI's 200+, which means even winning those games will cause you to drop further down. (For comparison "your" Georgetown team has only 2 games left vs teams with an expected RPI below 100 (1 game vs a team higher than 125).

[adoraz]

The thing is, in RPI forecast they were individual game underdogs in only 3 games for the rest of the season. But they account for games like last night by instead of projecting 24-7 for them 22-9, giving them some leeway.

The thing is the website you're pushing, RPI forecast, now has them projected to finish with a 51 RPI. Even if that were to happen, they'd be biting their nails selection Sunday. They are in nowhere near as good shape as you portray them to be. Butler is forecasted at 35 BTW.

[stever20]

The numbers JUST updated. Tulsa now up to 67.2 UConn down to 61.0.

but look at the odds...
UConn. Needs 22 wins to have a 46 RPI. has a 36.75% chance of doing that.
Tulsa. Needs 20 wins to have a 46 RPI. Has a 23.73% chance of doing that.
Cincy needs 22 wins to have a 46 RPI. has a 76.06% chance of doing that.

There's a chance... But would say it's even now at least 50/50 for AAC getting 2+ teams in.

Georgetown right now- needs 18 wins to have a 54.5 RPI. 21.83% chance of doing that.
Creighton right now- needs 21 wins to have a 55.3 RPI. 10.86% chance of doing that.
Seton Hall right now- needs 20 wins to have a 52.1 RPI. 30.77% chance of doing that.
Marquette right now- needs 22 wins to have a 61.8 RPI even. only a 0.95% chance of doing that.
Butler right now- needs 20 wins to have a 53.3 RPI. A 93.2% chance of doing that.

have to remember also with all of these numbers that it's thru the regular season- and not the conference tourney. For AAC for example- they could have a team win the tourney, a team win 2 games in the tourney, and a 3rd team winning a game and losing in the SF- so all 3 getting a RPI boost.

Also have to remember the influence in KP. Right now UConn is still #41 in Ken Pom.

[NovaBall]

Conference of the Americans suck.

Temple had 4,500 fans at their game on Saturday, and 5,300 fans for their home opener the Saturday before. That's paid attendance, not actual attendance, in a building that holds over 10K. They are below 5,000 fans on average for their weekend home conference games, for a school with over 30,000 students. That is so bad.

Temple was better off in the Atlantic 10. At least then they had rivalry games in January and February that drew fans.

Was Temple back in session yet? I know one of the games they certainly weren't(Jan 2).

4,000 fans is horrendous even if the school is on break. However, they use paid attendance, not turnstile attendance, so it doesn't matter if the school was in session as they would have counted all of the students even if they weren't there (easy to count those free student tickets in the ticket distributed column)

At least I'm the Atlantic 10 they played geographic rivals and there was so,e interest in the games.

[NovaBall]

Stever... wait a minute here... it appears UConn just lost.

How is that possible? According to RPI Forecast this was a game they were supposed to win! And surely one you expected them to win.

Guess it's not as simple as just predicting they will win every game they're favored in, huh?

In Ken Pom, Tulsa was favored.

Tulsa is getting pretty interesting. They do have a good OOC win in Wichita which is getting better each week. Good win now over UConn. Their RPI right now is 56....They're going to be a threat. RIght now projected at 19-11. 1 more win and they have 20 wins. SOS is good. Expected SOS is 63. You get 20 wins with a top 65 SOS you're going to have a real good case. And no D2 loss to kill them this year.

AS far as UConn, they started this week with RPI of 82. What is it right now? 85. So not a huge drop off for losing on the road to a top 65 team. It'd be very similar to someone in the Big East losing to a Seton Hall on the road right now. Not that big of a deal.

If a big east team had a projected SOS I'm the 60's you would not be calling that "good"

[stever20]

Butler's projected SOS 64
Seton Halls Projected SOS 68
Creighton's projected SOS 79
Marquette's projected SOS 93

[stever20]

As for UConn, no they didn't drop too far. But when your RPI is in the mid-80's, you have a very small margin for error. Especially when you still have 5 games left vs teams with RPI's 200+, which means even winning those games will cause you to drop further down. (For comparison "your" Georgetown team has only 2 games left vs teams with an expected RPI below 100 (1 game vs a team higher than 125).

1 point on this. While UConn has a smaller margin for error- they need to win more games than Georgetown does- Georgetown's schedule is pretty brutal the rest of the way. Their SOS is projected to go from 100 right now up to #18. Meanwhile- UConn is projected to go from 108 to 76. So would you rather have to go 11-5 vs an easier schedule or 7-7 vs a brutal schedule? UConn is projected to go 10-6 in their schedule by RPI forecast/9-7 in Ken Pom. In KP- only underdogs in 5 games. In RPI Forecast- only underdogs in 3 games. Georgetown is projected to go 5-9 vs their schedule in both. In RPI forecast- only favorites in 4 games. IN KP only favorites in 5 games. It's a great schedule for Georgetown and the wins would resonate well. But- it's also pretty darn brutal.

[Westbrook#36]

stever the aac's answer to this man

[GoldenWarrior11]

As if it needed to be emphasized yet again - after the consistent thumping of the AAC's chests and disappointing basketball losses - but UConn staying in the AAC for men's basketball is not sustainable. Fact of the matter is that UConn/Cincy are both with 8 other schools that were elevated from Conference USA and another from the Atlantic-10. With each passing year, the likelihood of them losing to a team like USF/UCF/Tulane/East Carolina/Tulsa just increases - and, last night, came to fruition.

UConn, despite being a top basketball program in the country, is not strong enough to elevate all of the weak programs in the conference. The other 9 schools, especially the weaker programs, will continue to bring them down. Between UCF (4), Tulane (3), East Carolina (2) and USF (3) - over a third of the conference in basketball - has a combined twelve NCAA Tournament appearances in their respective program's history. If you throw in SMU and Houston, since 1995, those two programs have a combined two appearances in the NCAA tournament. Add those six schools up (UCF, Tulane, ECU, USF, Houston, SMU), and you have over half of a conference that has been extremely poor in basketball for over 20 years. Compare that to the Big East, which has had all of it's programs make the tournament since 2004, and six of the schools have advanced to the Sweet 16 in that time. There's just no comparison between the leagues.

So glad that the C7 avoided that dumpster fire.