Big East Games of Interest: 2015-2016

[stever20]

I'm not sure that GW, St Bonnies, or VCU get in. looking at Ken Pom- which is huge- VCU is 36(better than Dayton). But GW is 88 and St Bonnies are at 81. Given what we saw last year- don't think you can say either of those are all that realistic.... VCU has the best shot by far.

Wait VCU and GW are UC's best wins...so you're saying that there is a chance the Bearcats go before the Committee without one win OOC vs a potential tourney team. AND they lost to Temple twice and last night to Tulsa?

Uh-oh!

Cincy is in trouble no doubt. Tulsa has passed them as the 2nd option for the AAC now. The win though vs VCU especially will be huge for Cincy now. If it gets down to Cincy vs VCU- Cincy goes. Cincy also has the better chance for good wins down the stretch with UConn and SMU- while VCU only has Dayton. Cincy right now would be NIT and Tulsa in- but Cincy can change that big time on Saturday getting themselves in by beating UConn(and UConn would still be in).

[GumbyDamnit!]

I'm not sure that GW, St Bonnies, or VCU get in. looking at Ken Pom- which is huge- VCU is 36(better than Dayton). But GW is 88 and St Bonnies are at 81. Given what we saw last year- don't think you can say either of those are all that realistic.... VCU has the best shot by far.

Wait VCU and GW are UC's best wins...so you're saying that there is a chance the Bearcats go before the Committee without one win OOC vs a potential tourney team. AND they lost to Temple twice and last night to Tulsa?

Uh-oh!

Cincy is in trouble no doubt. Tulsa has passed them as the 2nd option for the AAC now. The win though vs VCU especially will be huge for Cincy now. If it gets down to Cincy vs VCU- Cincy goes. Cincy also has the better chance for good wins down the stretch with UConn and SMU- while VCU only has Dayton. Cincy right now would be NIT and Tulsa in- but Cincy can change that big time on Saturday getting themselves in by beating UConn(and UConn would still be in).

And by extension if Butler and Cincy are on that bubble together I guess you'd admit that they are in better shape than them. And Butler has much better opportunities for big wins in the BE than could be found in the AAC. Lots of games left to play but I'm thinking 5 for the BE is more likely than 3 for the AAC.

[stever20]

Nova is better than SMU- but right now, UConn is better than Providence. Houston and Georgetown- really about the same(Geo 87, Hou 88 in RPI right now). Only one much different is Marquette/East Carolina- but even there, it's more of a win is a win type deal. Also, Marquette is home for Butler, while ECU is road for Cincy. So right now the only difference between Butler and Cincy with the remaining schedule is Butler gets Nova while Cincy gets SMU. If Butler and Cincy both win- advantage Butler.

I really think 5 for BE and 3 for AAC is most likely scenario.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Nova is better than SMU- but right now, UConn is better than Providence. Houston and Georgetown- really about the same(Geo 87, Hou 88 in RPI right now). Only one much different is Marquette/East Carolina- but even there, it's more of a win is a win type deal. Also, Marquette is home for Butler, while ECU is road for Cincy. So right now the only difference between Butler and Cincy with the remaining schedule is Butler gets Nova while Cincy gets SMU. If Butler and Cincy both win- advantage Butler.

I really think 5 for BE and 3 for AAC is most likely scenario.

You forgot the Big East Tourney.

[stever20]

Nova is better than SMU- but right now, UConn is better than Providence. Houston and Georgetown- really about the same(Geo 87, Hou 88 in RPI right now). Only one much different is Marquette/East Carolina- but even there, it's more of a win is a win type deal. Also, Marquette is home for Butler, while ECU is road for Cincy. So right now the only difference between Butler and Cincy with the remaining schedule is Butler gets Nova while Cincy gets SMU. If Butler and Cincy both win- advantage Butler.

I really think 5 for BE and 3 for AAC is most likely scenario.

You forgot the Big East Tourney.

If Butler doesn't see Seton Hall or Providence 1st round- and no guarantee they do- no lock that QF game would be better for Butler. Cincy could be in 4/5 game with Tulsa. And even there- Tulsa could be better than Seton Hall or PC even.

[GumbyDamnit!]

You forgot the Big East Tourney.

If Butler doesn't see Seton Hall or Providence 1st round- and no guarantee they do- no lock that QF game would be better for Butler. Cincy could be in 4/5 game with Tulsa. And even there- Tulsa could be better than Seton Hall or PC even.

If Cincy and Tulsa are in the 4/5 game, with SMU sitting at home, then both are in serious trouble. Finishing 5th and 6th in the 8th best conference is not the way to make a good impression on the Committee. Even if one of those survived and played Temple in the SF that is not what you want. A loss to UCONN in the Finals still proves that neither can beat a tourney team when it matters.

[stever20]

it would be tiebreakers..... However, I don't think Cincy can finish where they see Tulsa quite frankly. But Cincy could finish 4th behind Tulsa. Bottom line though for remaining schedule, there is no lock that Butler will have a profoundly tougher game until the SF.

And when all is said and done- Cincy end of the day will have VCU as a win vs team in the tourney(I do think VCU gets in), and Tulsa likely will as well(with Wichita).

[billyjack]

VCU (RPI now at #63 after tonight) with a huge loss at #176 George Mason.

[stever20]

VCU (RPI now at #63 after tonight) with a huge loss at #176 George Mason.

The VCU/GW game on Saturday may be an elimination game now quite frankly.

[GumbyDamnit!]

VCU (RPI now at #63 after tonight) with a huge loss at #176 George Mason.

The VCU/GW game on Saturday may be an elimination game now quite frankly.

So the Bearcats best wins OOC are VCU and GW. Two teams that frankly might not make the tourney. That is OK if you are in a power conference with several other solid tourney teams that you have a chance to knock off, but not when you are in the 8th best conference... When grouped with a bunch of other bubble teams (Temple, Tulsa, UCONN, etc) that have done very little themselves OOC, you need to win your league convincingly. They are not even the tallest midget in that conf and that seldom gets rewarded by the Committee. RPI well north of 50 to boot. I'd be very worried if I were them.