Conference of the Americas......one-bid

[GreatDaneAttorney]

It's still very early to know how everything's going to work out. Worst case scenario for the AAC is only 1 bid, but a couple of things: (1) the AAC is a league that has no clear favorite and thus anyone could pull an upset in the conference tourney, and (2) I don't know that we've learned everything we can about each team, meaning a team like Houston or Memphis might still be a great team, and it's too early to say. The Big East will likely field 4 or 5 teams. This year, I don't see how 6 will be possible--I just don't see enough W's from any of the Bottom 6 in the league against the Top 4 to vault them into the tourney.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Stever, the thing is...both UCONN and Cincy, the two best hopes for the AAC, lost on their home courts to a very pedestrian Temple team. Your charts told you that both should have won easily. They didn't. So please stop predicting that both are going to do exactly what you and your calculator tells you. Doesn't work that way. THAT "is the thing."

[stever20]

Temple is not a bad team. They have only a 8-6 record, but they have the #53 SOS in the country so far. They have losses to UNC, Butler, Utah, Wisconsin, St Joe's, and Houston.

You can hope all you want for the AAC to have only 1 bid. But the numbers just do no support that at all whatsoever. I know you would love that- but it would take for instance UConn to go only 10-7 the rest of the way. Considering they have games left with Tulane, UCF, ECU, USF, and UCF- that would mean they would have to go 5-7 or worse to miss in the other 12 games. Also, if UConn loses like tomorrow to Tulsa, that's going to elevate Tulsa.

Lets say this. The chances of the AAC having 1 team in the tourney is pretty much equal to the chance the Big East gets 3 teams in the tourney. It's possible but it's just not likely at all whatsoever.

[Westbrook#36]

Lets say this. The chances of the AAC having 1 team in the tourney is pretty much equal to the chance the Big East gets 3 teams in the tourney. It's possible but it's just not likely at all whatsoever.

I thought I was done with this thread, but you had to pull me back in with this absolute gem here. The chances of those two things happening are in no way close to equal, not remotely. The BE will have at least 4 teams in the tourney that matters this March, 100%. The AAC is staring down the barrel of a one bid gun, if more than a couple teams don't start getting their shit together and pray Houston doesn't collapse. Even then there is an excellent chance to get 2 bids, one will have to be a bid thief. Death, taxes, and stever blowing smoke up your butt about the AAC.

[NovaBall]

Temple is not a bad team. They have only a 8-6 record, but they have the #53 SOS in the country so far. er.

8-6 against the #53 sos is bad.

[stever20]

Lets say this. The chances of the AAC having 1 team in the tourney is pretty much equal to the chance the Big East gets 3 teams in the tourney. It's possible but it's just not likely at all whatsoever.

I thought I was done with this thread, but you had to pull me back in with this absolute gem here. The chances of those two things happening are in no way close to equal, not remotely. The BE will have at least 4 teams in the tourney that matters this March, 100%. The AAC is staring down the barrel of a one bid gun, if more than a couple teams don't start getting their shit together and pray Houston doesn't collapse. Even then there is an excellent chance to get 2 bids, one will have to be a bid thief. Death, taxes, and stever blowing smoke up your butt about the AAC.

The AAC is not staring down the barrel of a 1 bid gun. That's just dumb to even say. If UConn does even reasonably well, they are in. I mean look at last night. 2 of their opponents got HUGE wins- Michigan over Maryland and Texas over Iowa State. If a bid thief situation happens, the conference would more likely get 3 bids in rather than the bid thief be #2.

And sorry- but the Big East does not have 4 locks right now. Butler still has some work to do, and Seton Hall does to, and Creighton, Georgetown, and Marquette need to win game(s) that they aren't expected to go dancing. You can act like there is no chance of that happening- but it wouldn't take much unexpected at all for it to happen. I don't expect it to happen, but there is a chance.

Once again, conferences don't get bids, teams get bids. Creighton screwed themselves with their schedule and the loss to Loyola.

[AACguy]

It's still very early to know how everything's going to work out. Worst case scenario for the AAC is only 1 bid, but a couple of things: (1) the AAC is a league that has no clear favorite and thus anyone could pull an upset in the conference tourney, and (2) I don't know that we've learned everything we can about each team, meaning a team like Houston or Memphis might still be a great team, and it's too early to say. The Big East will likely field 4 or 5 teams. This year, I don't see how 6 will be possible--I just don't see enough W's from any of the Bottom 6 in the league against the Top 4 to vault them into the tourney.

The AAC has a clear favorite (SMU) who won't be eligible to play in the NCAA tournament. Can't complain about that. The rest of the league needs to improve a lot though. Schools like UCONN, Temple, Cincy, and Memphis have all had varying levels of success and need to be better.

[GreatDaneAttorney]

Oh, I should have been more clear. There's no clear favorite among tourney eligible teams. I'm assuming that'll make for an entertaining year in the AAC, especially if we find out that Houston's actually really good.

[Westbrook#36]

The AAC is not staring down the barrel of a 1 bid gun. That's just dumb to even say. If UConn does even reasonably well, they are in. I mean look at last night. 2 of their opponents got HUGE wins- Michigan over Maryland and Texas over Iowa State. If a bid thief situation happens, the conference would more likely get 3 bids in rather than the bid thief be #2.

And sorry- but the Big East does not have 4 locks right now. Butler still has some work to do, and Seton Hall does to, and Creighton, Georgetown, and Marquette need to win game(s) that they aren't expected to go dancing. You can act like there is no chance of that happening- but it wouldn't take much unexpected at all for it to happen. I don't expect it to happen, but there is a chance.

Once again, conferences don't get bids, teams get bids. Creighton screwed themselves with their schedule and the loss to Loyola.

Yes they are, it's dumb to say otherwise. The AAC has a bunch of work to do at this point to get a second team in. UConn has to finish 12-6 in the AAC and probably also beat G'town to have a chance. Remember the SMU snub(23-8 & 12-6) or the Temple snub(22-9 & 13-5), the committee has shown the past 2 years that they're not overly impressed with the aac, FACT. Sorry, the BE does have 4 locks right now, FACT. Butler only has to go 9-9 in BE to get in and they already have the hardest part out of the way. Once again teams in strong conferences have stronger cases for bids. Teams do get bids and playing in crappy conferences like the AAC hurts teams chances, especially if your ooc isn't great. stever being stever

[stever20]

The AAC is not staring down the barrel of a 1 bid gun. That's just dumb to even say. If UConn does even reasonably well, they are in. I mean look at last night. 2 of their opponents got HUGE wins- Michigan over Maryland and Texas over Iowa State. If a bid thief situation happens, the conference would more likely get 3 bids in rather than the bid thief be #2.

And sorry- but the Big East does not have 4 locks right now. Butler still has some work to do, and Seton Hall does to, and Creighton, Georgetown, and Marquette need to win game(s) that they aren't expected to go dancing. You can act like there is no chance of that happening- but it wouldn't take much unexpected at all for it to happen. I don't expect it to happen, but there is a chance.

Once again, conferences don't get bids, teams get bids. Creighton screwed themselves with their schedule and the loss to Loyola.

Yes they are, it's dumb to say otherwise. The AAC has a bunch of work to do at this point to get a second team in. UConn has to finish 12-6 in the AAC and probably also beat G'town to have a chance. Remember the SMU snub(23-8 & 12-6) or the Temple snub(22-9 & 13-5), the committee has shown the past 2 years that they're not overly impressed with the aac, FACT. Sorry, the BE does have 4 locks right now, FACT. Butler only has to go 9-9 in BE to get in and they already have the hardest part out of the way. Once again teams in strong conferences have stronger cases for bids. Teams do get bids and playing in crappy conferences like the AAC hurts teams chances, especially if your ooc isn't great. stever being stever

OOC not great? UConn has wins over Michigan(who just beat Maryland), Texas(who just beat Iowa St), and Ohio St(who has beat Kentucky). How is that not a good OOC?

Butler isn't a lock because they don't have those 9 wins yet. They have to go 8-6 the rest of the way- and that's with 3 games against PC, Nova, and X.

SMU and Temple were not good in the advanced metrics. UConn and Cincy are very good in the advanced metrics. That's a huge difference- especially given the way the committee is going in the way they select teams.